Is Volatility Risk for the British Pound Priced in U.S. Options Markets?

This paper estimates the premium for volatility risk for European currency options written on British pounds. The average annualized premium for volatility risk is neither statistically different from zero nor invariant to the option's moneyness. However, the risk premium is positively and nonproportionaly related to the level of volatility, except for out‐of‐the‐money options. Finding a zero premium for volatility risk does not undermine the assumption of a zero‐price volatility risk in many extant stochastic‐volatility option pricing models and the option pricing formulas in those models.     

Is It a Few Days of Good Times and then Darkness Ensues? Long-Term Performance of an Industry after Broad Reforms and Privatisation

ABSTRACT

The long-run financial performances of privatised firms have rarely been investigated. This study examines the financial and operational performance within the Pakistani cement industry utilising two decades of post-privatisation data. Broadly speaking, regression analyses confirm that long-term positive impacts of reforms and privatisation on profitability, output and investment are uncertain. After controlling for firm, industry and economic factors, our estimates show that privatised firms initially improved their profitability but recorded a statistically significant decline over a longer period. The sale efficiency, capacity utilisation, and leverage indicators, however, improved over a considerably long post-ownership change period.     

The Effect of US Stock Market Uncertainty on Emerging Market Returns

We investigate the effects of US stock market uncertainty (VIX) on the stock returns in Latin America and aggregate emerging markets before, during, and after the financial crisis. We find that increases in VIX lead to significant immediate and delayed declines in emerging market returns in all periods. However, changes in VIX explained a greater percentage of changes in emerging market returns during the financial crisis than in other periods. The higher US stock market uncertainty exerts a much stronger depressing effect on emerging market returns than their own-lagged and regional returns. Our risk transmission model suggests that a heightened US stock market uncertainty lowers emerging market returns by both reducing the mean returns and raising the variance of returns. The VIX fears raise the volatility of emerging market returns through generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type volatility transmission processes.     

Impact of oil prices on firm stock return: industry-wise analysis

The study investigates the impact of oil prices on firm-level stock returns in case of Pakistan over the period 1998–2014, as this relationship is neglected by the previous literature. By using the panel data estimation, the results of full sample indicate significant positive effect of oil price changes on firm stock returns in the same period, whereas the lagged oil price changes have significant negative effect on firms’ stock return. Moreover, the industry-level analysis also confirms the similar findings; results indicate significant positive impact of oil price on firms’ stock return in full sample, textile, chemical and miscellaneous industry, while the lagged oil price changes negatively affect the stock returns of full sample and all the industries except tobacco, jute and vanaspati industries. The study confirms that rise in oil price transfers a positive signal in the stock market that boosts the firm-level stock returns in Pakistan. In contrast to the negative shocks, the stock returns are significantly affected by the positive oil price shocks.     

Predicting correctness of eyewitness statements using the semantic evaluation method (SEM)

Quality & Quantity - Evaluating the correctness of eyewitness statements is one of the biggest challenges for the legal system, and this task is currently typically performed by human...     

Determining the impact of age and LOS on job satisfaction: a case study of Pakistan automotive industry

This research was conducted to ascertain the impact of age and length of service (LOS) on job satisfaction in engineers of Pakistan public sector. Field survey was conducted using job satisfaction survey (JSS) questionnaire having closed-ended questions. Multistage sampling was conducted using a combination of cluster sampling, stratified sampling and random sampling techniques. Power and Precision software was used to determine the sample size. JSS questionnaires were administered amongst 225 electrical and mechanical engineers from five public sector organizations. 158 usable questionnaires were received and data were analyzed in SPSS. Statistical analyses showed existence of an open mouth U-shaped relationship between LOS/age and job satisfaction. It was found that age moderates relationship between LOS and job satisfaction. Non-responsiveness of senior engineers led to one of the limitations of this study. Results of this study can be used for policy-making decisions.     

Is it an institution,digital or social inclusion that matters for inclusive growth? A panel data analysis

This study empirically examines the impact of institutional quality, social inclusion and digital inclusion on inclusive growth across different economies characterized by different income groups. Particularly, the study examines the impact of institutions on inclusive growth by using the panel data for 83 countries over the period 2010–2017. For empirical specification, we used two-steps system-GMM estimation technique to tackle endogeneity and min–max normalized indexing technique to construct the indices for inclusive growth, social inclusion, digital inclusion and institutional quality. The results of this study show that there is a direct link between institutional quality and inclusive growth for a higher-income group of countries but not in the rest of the income groups. Contribution of social and digital inclusivity is significant in all three income groups, except for social inclusion in middle-income countries. From the policy point of view, these findings suggest that establishing and strengthening the institutional structure in low- and middle-income countries can contribute towards better and higher inclusive growth.