Credit Risk in Interbank Networks

ABSTRACT

One of the most striking characteristics of modern financial systems is their complex interdependence, comprising a network of bilateral exposures in the interbank market, in which institutions with surplus liquidity can lend to those with a liquidity shortage. Empirical studies reveal that some interbank networks have features of scale-free networks. We explore the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose distribution of links approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks’ balance sheets from information on network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which the concentration of debt and credit comes from the distribution of links. The results suggest that networks that are more connected and have a high concentration of credit are more resilient to contagion than other types of networks analyzed.     

Managing financial constraints: undercapitalization and underwriting capacity in Spanish fire insurance

Reinsurance is a vital financial device for enhancing underwriting capacity, ceding risks, and mitigating financial distress. By supplying financial resources and services, reinsurance can facilitate growth and expansion in the insurance business. Focusing on the insurance sector in the emerging Spanish economy and using a novel dataset on fire insurance companies, this article examines the role of fire insurance in the national capital formation, the importance of reinsurance as a vehicle for expanding the country's domestic underwriting capacity, and how the import of capital impacted on the balance of payment, from the introduction of the first comprehensive legislation regarding insurance in 1908 to the outbreak of the Civil War in 1936. Considering the situation of undercapitalization, the singularities of the insurance market, and the changes in regulatory schemes, we find that foreign reinsurance became a key financial vehicle for increasing underwriting capacity in Spain. We also show the struggle of an emerging market to find ways to keep the balance of current accounts and raise capital when financial infrastructure was underdeveloped. The diffusion of reinsurance networks from the core of industrial western countries towards emerging economies was one of the mechanisms for financial modernization on a global scale.     

Analysis of the emergency service applying the queueing theory

Those responsible for the decision-making in hospitals are becoming more aware of the need to efficiently manage hospital systems. One option is the queueing models. In this work, the Emergency service of a public hospital is analyzed by applying the concepts and relations of queues. Based on the results of the model, it is concluded that the Emergency area does not count with the minimum number of doctors necessary for a constant flow of patients. The minimum number of doctors necessary to satisfy the current and future service demand, with the same service times and service disciplines, is calculated using the model. The analytical models allow to directly understand the existing relations between service demand, number of doctors and the attention priority of the patient seen as a system of queues. The work is of use to managers and those responsible for the management of hospital systems.     

Efectos de la contratación de exempleados de multinacionales en la capacidad de absorción en empresas locales

Attracting Foreign Direct Investment seeks, among other goals, increase productivity of local firms through knowledge spillovers. Nevertheless the empirical evidence is contradictory. One influential factor is the absorptive capacity of local firms. This article analyzes the effect of the presence of ex-employees of multinational companies, as employees of local firms in the absorption capacity of these firms. The study was conducted in Costa Rica, a country recognized for its successful strategy in this area. The data come from a survey of 1,167 companies conducted by the Costa Rican Observatory of Small and Mediums Enterprises in 2011. It was found that hiring former employees of multinational companies by local firms has a positive effect on the rate of absorption capacity. In short, this engagement of former employees of multinationals increases by nine percentage points the rate of absorption capacity, with differences for sectors and firms sizes.     

Special issue: Qualitative and quantitative methods in tourism research

Quality & Quantity -     

A machine learning approach to big data regression analysis of real estate prices for inferential and predictive purposes

The hedonic price regressions have mainly been used for inference. In contrast, machine learning employed on big data has a great potential for prediction. To contribute to the integration of these two strategies, this article proposes a machine learning approach to the regression analysis of big data, viz. real estate prices, for both inferential and predictive purposes. The methodology incorporates a new procedure of selecting variables, called ‘incremental sample with resampling’ (MINREM). The methodology is tested on two cases. The first is data from web advertisements selling used homes in Colombia (61,826 observations). The second considers the data (58,888 observations) from a sample of the Metropolitan American Housing Survey 2011 obtained and prepared by a reference study. The methodology consists of two stages. The first chooses the important variables under MINREM; the second focuses on the traditional training and validation procedure for machine learning, adding three activities. In both test cases, the methodology shows its value for obtaining highly parsimonious and stable models for different sample sizes, as well as taking advantage of the inferential and predictive use of the obtained regression functions. This paper contributes to an original methodology for big data regression analysis.     

Firm size and capital structure: evidence using dynamic panel data

This article suggests that the validity of the Trade-Off Theory (TOT) and Pecking-Order Theory (POT) to explain financing decisions varies among small, medium-sized and large firms. Using dynamic panel data tests on a sample of 3439 Spanish firms over the period 1995–2003, results are partially consistent with both explanations but suggest a greater validity of pecking-order predictions for small firms. In small firms, the negative influence of profitability and the positive influence of investment opportunities and of intangible assets on firm debt predicted by the POT are heightened. However, no differences are observed between small and large firms in their speed of adjustment to the target leverage as suggested by the TOT.     

Impact of the dedicated infrastructure on bus service quality: an empirical analysis

An econometric analysis is conducted to quantify the impact of different variables on the service quality of the Santiago, Chile bus system. The indicators tested as measures of service quality are the average bus speed, the bus trip time coefficient of variation and the bus headway coefficient of variation. The analysis uses peak hour data obtained for all the routes served by the system’s various concessionaire operators. A separate multiple linear regression model is estimated for each indicator, with the latter as the explained variable. The main explanatory variables are a series of design factors representing different types of dedicated route infrastructure and the incorporation in some routes of segments of urban motorway. The results of the models show that the existence of dedicated bus route infrastructure positively impacts all three service quality indicators. The use of motorway segments in particular has a major positive effect on average speed. The model estimates also reveal that the main explanatory factor in headway variability at the end of a route is the headway variability at the start of it, the latter factor determined by operator management decisions regarding bus despatches.     

Stock repurchases with legal restrictions. Evidence from Spain

This paper analyses the consequences of legal restrictions on the volume of shares firms can repurchase. Results suggest that the imposition of a limit on the volume of common stock favours the use of open market repurchases (OMRs) compared to other methods of repurchase such as tender offer repurchases (TORs) and Dutch auctions (DAs). The positive share abnormal returns around both announcements of open market buybacks and sellbacks in the full sample suggest that they are basically used to change the ownership structure of the firm in a consistent way with the convergence of interest hypothesis. The positive abnormal stock returns around open market repurchases, which are significantly different to the negative ones around sellbacks, when there are no changes in ownership structure also indicates the existence of a signalling and free cash flow effects.     

Attitudes Towards Genetically Modified Food with a Specific Consumer Benefit in Food Allergic Consumers and Non‐food Allergic Consumers

The aim of the reported study was to investigate attitudes towards genetically modified food with a specific consumer benefit. Fifty food allergic and one hundred non‐allergic consumers took part in a telephone interview study in each of Austria, Spain and the Netherlands. Participants were first asked about their purchase intentions for an unspecified genetically modified food. Next, participants were asked about their purchase intentions for a genetically modified food with a specific consumer benefit. Food allergic consumers were asked about ‘low‐allergen food’ produced using genetic modification and non‐allergic consumers were asked about ‘food that benefits your health’ produced using genetic modification. It was found that intention to purchase genetically modified food with these specific benefits was higher than intention to purchase an unspecified genetically modified food.