The Impact of Ambiguity on Managerial Investment and Cash Holdings

Standard finance theory suggests that managers invest in projects that, in expectation, produce returns that justify the use of capital. An underlying assumption is that managers have the information necessary to understand the distributional properties of the pay‐offs underlying the decision. This paper examines firm investment behavior when managers are likely to find it more challenging to develop expectations of pay‐offs, namely during periods of increased macroeconomic ambiguity. In particular, we examine how macroeconomic ambiguity – proxied by the variance premium (Drechsler, 2010 ) and the dispersion in forecasts of corporate profits from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (Anderson et al., 2009 ) – impacts managerial capital investment and cash holdings. Consistent with ambiguity theory, we find that macroeconomic ambiguity is negatively associated with capital investment and positively associated with cash holdings. These results are robust to alternative explanations related to risk, investor sentiment and economic conditions. Moreover, consistent with recent theoretical real options literature, we find that ambiguity reduces the value of investment opportunities, while risk increases the value of such opportunities. Overall, these findings provide initial empirical evidence on the economic distinction between ambiguity and risk with respect to managerial investment and cash holdings.     

From “Lemons” to Lemonade: Lessening the Impact of Adverse Selection through Buyer Trust

This research extends overlapping streams of research examining asymmetric information, adverse selection, and buyer trust by presenting an empirical investigation of the process by which a market for “lemons” emerges in the claiming market for thoroughbred racehorses. The study focuses attention on the potential of quality signals and buyer trust to lessen the impact of adverse selection. Incorporating concepts from economics, marketing, and psychology, a conceptual model suggests that adversely selected racehorses, distinguished by an unintentional signal from sellers to potential buyers, will be priced lower than otherwise similar racehorses perceived to be less subject to adverse selection. Data from one day of claiming races at 16 American racetracks (744 racehorses) are used to test this study hypothesis. Results provide evidence for adverse selection and a mitigating quality signal in the thoroughbred claiming market. Implications for buyers and sellers in this market, as well as more general implications, are discussed and an avenue for future research is proposed.     

Work and common health problems

This paper reviews the evidence on the relationship between work and health. It concludes that, overall, the beneficial effects of work outweigh the risks of work, and are greater than the harmful effects of long-term worklessness. That contrasts with increasing trends of sickness absence, long-term incapacity and ill-health retirement attributed to common health problems. It suggests that there needs to be a fundamental shift in how we think about common health problems and work--in health care, the workplace and society.     

A consistent characteristic function-based test for conditional independence

Y is conditionally independent of Z given X   if Pr{f(y|X,Z)=f(y|X)}=1$\{f(y|X,Z)=f(y|X)\}=1$ for all y on its support, where f(·|·)$f(·|·)$ denotes the conditional density of Y   given (X,Z)$(X,Z)$ or X.$X.$ This paper proposes a nonparametric test of conditional independence based on the notion that two conditional distributions are equal if and only if the corresponding conditional characteristic functions are equal. We extend the test of Su and White (2005. A Hellinger-metric nonparametric test for conditional independence. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD) in two directions: (1) our test is less sensitive to the choice of bandwidth sequences; (2) our test has power against deviations on the full support of the density of (X,Y,Z$X,Y,Z$). We establish asymptotic normality for our test statistic under weak data dependence conditions. Simulation results suggest that the test is well behaved in finite samples. Applications to stock market data indicate that our test can reveal some interesting nonlinear dependence that a traditional linear Granger causality test fails to detect.     

Museum pricing: challenges to theory development and practice

• The museum sector has undergone considerable change in the last few decades, which has been a result of both internal and external forces. The topic of pricing in museums, however, has attracted little interest from researchers in the field despite the sector's need to understand it better. This study aimed to address this gap in knowledge. Results of a comprehensive literature review on pricing highlight that the topic of pricing in museums is problematic, as a range of issues, social, political and often value-laden, must be considered before pricing decisions can be made. The study highlights that there is diversity in the sector with regard to pricing, but that museums generally adopt a unilateral approach to pricing. Researchers in entrepreneurial marketing have noted that conventional pricing theory is being turned on its head and they argue that deciding what prices to charge represents one of the more entrepreneurial strategies for organisations. This study indicates that, within the context of museums, marketers are failing to recognise and capitalise on such pricing opportunities. Approaches to setting multiple museum pricing strategies, depending on the market context, are proposed in this paper. In this way, knowledge of museum pricing can optimise the organisational outcomes of museums while continuing to meet their social responsibilities.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Crash of 1882 and the Bailout of the Paris Bourse

The crash of the French stock market in 1882 presented the Paris Bourse with its worst crisis of the nineteenth century. Its structure was similar in key respects to today’s futures markets, with a dominant forward market leading the Bourse to adopt a common fund to guarantee transactions and liquidity. While this mutualization of risk protects clients and brokers from idiosyncratic shocks, it is generally assumed that it also provides considerable protection against systemic shocks, as no twentieth century exchange has been forced to shut down. Using new archival data, this paper shows how a stock market crash overwhelmed the Bourse’s common fund. Only an emergency loan from the Bank of France, intermediated by the largest banks, prevented a closure of the Bourse.