Convenient specification tests for logit and probit models

We propose several Lagrange multiplier tests of logit and probit models, which may be inexpen- sively computed by means of artificial linear regressions. These maybe used to test for various forms of model inadequacy, including the omission of specified variables and heteroskedasticity of known form. We perform a number of sampling experiments, in which we compare the small-sam- ple properties of these tests and of likelihood ratio tests. One of the LM tests turns out to have better small-sample properties than any of the others. We then investigate the power of the tests against local alternatives, and conduct a further series of sampling experiments to compare the power of various tests.     

Monetary anticipations and the demand for money

It has recently been argued that unanticipated changes in nominal money supply should affect the real demand for money, and empirical results which appear to support this hypothesis have been presented. Unfortunately, the econometric techniques used by previous authors yield severel biased estimates. In this paper we show how valid estimates may easily be obtained, and present some illustrative empirical results using U.S. data. These results do not support the conclusions of earlier authors. We find that unanticipated money supply changes do indeed affect the real demand for money, but with the wrong sign, and that anticipated changes also have a significant effect.A consistency test for all models employing the anticipated-unanticipated distinction is also proposed.     

Reply to Comments on “Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply”

Quantitative Marketing and Economics -     

Does Ownership Identity Matter? A Meta‐analysis of Research on Firm Financial Performance in Relation to Government versus Private Ownership

We examine whether reported ownership–performance relations systematically differ for government versus private ownership by integrating the diverse empirical results for listed corporations in emerging markets. Our meta‐analysis confirms popular perceptions that, compared to private ownership, government ownership is associated with inferior performance. We find that, on average, the underlying ownership–performance relation is negative for government ownership and positive for private ownership, and the difference between these relations is significant. We also find that the positive private ownership–performance relation is stronger for institutional/foreign ownership compared to family/management ownership. Further analysis shows that negative (positive) government (private) ownership and performance relations have weakened (strengthened) over time. Our assessment of the sources of heterogeneity shows that reported relations are biased by estimation methods that fail to adequately control for endogeneity. Our results suggest that the nature of ownership–performance relations in emerging markets remains very dynamic and warrants ongoing research interest.     

Components of CEO Remuneration and Non‐GAAP Disclosure

This paper provides evidence of the effect of chief executive officer (CEO) remuneration on decisions to disclose voluntary non‐generally accepted accounting principles (non‐GAAP) financial measures. We investigate profit announcements that focus on the most emphasised part, which includes mandatorily identified information (results for the announcement to the market) and the least emphasised part, which incorporates other sections. By reading the profit announcements and manually collecting non‐GAAP financial measures (NGFM) data, there is no reliance on keyword search strings and as such we uncover the pervasiveness of the use of NGFM. Results show that the base component of CEOs’ remuneration plays a significant role in reporting NGFM in the most emphasised part of the profit announcement. Conversely, all three (base, short‐term and long‐term incentives) components of the remuneration package have a significant relationship with the reporting decisions in the least emphasised part of the statement. We find that, depending on the regulatory imposition and the emphasis assigned to the section of the profit announcement, the motive for voluntary disclosure of NGFM can be explained as altruistic (informative) or opportunistic (misleading). We contribute evidence on ‘pay–action’ rather than ‘pay–performance’ by incorporating all three components simultaneously into the framework to maintain the assumption of correspondence and internal consistency among those components.     

Predictors of glycemic control and diabetes-related costs among type 2 diabetes patients initiating therapy with liraglutide in the United States

Objective:

Liraglutide has been shown to significantly improve glycemic control and reduce body weight while minimizing the risk of hypoglycemia in adult patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aimed to identify characteristics that predict clinical and economic outcomes associated with liraglutide therapy in clinical practice in the US.

Methods:

Using the Truven Health MarketScan Laboratory Database, glycemic control (A1C <7%) and diabetes-related costs were evaluated in T2D patients initiating liraglutide between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2012. Patients were required to have ≥1 post-index claim for liraglutide and A1C values at baseline and 6 months follow-up. All valid values of baseline A1C were included. Patients previously treated with GLP-1 receptor agonist(s) or insulin, or with evidence of type 1 diabetes, pregnancy, or gestational diabetes during the study period were excluded. Multivariable regression models were used to identify predictors of glycemic control and diabetes-related costs.

Results:

Of 417 patients newly treated with liraglutide, 54.0% achieved glycemic control (A1C <7%) during follow-up. Factors associated with increased odds of glycemic control during follow-up were: being female, POS/EPO health plan type, baseline A1C, early liraglutide initiation (0–1 prior oral anti diabetics [OADs] vs ≥2), adherence to liraglutide (defined as the proportion of days covered [PDC]), and diabetic retinopathy. Being female, earlier liraglutide initiation (0–1 prior OADs), and higher patient share of liraglutide costs were associated with significantly lower diabetes-related costs during follow-up. Factors associated with significantly higher post-index diabetes-related costs were: higher baseline A1C, baseline use of sulfonylureas, and diabetic retinopathy.

Conclusions:

Within this commercially-insured population of T2D patients treated with liraglutide, gender, baseline A1C, early liraglutide initiation (0–1 prior OADs), diabetic retinopathy, better adherence, and patient share of liraglutide costs were associated with increased odds of achieving glycemic control and the odds of having higher or lower diabetes-related costs.