MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for policy simulations and short-term forecasting. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and forecast evaluations are presented. We also address methodology and practical issues relating to building and maintaining a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in Appendix A.“I think it should be generally agreed that a model that does not generate many properties of actual data cannot be claimed to have any ‘policy implications’…”Clive.W. J. Granger (1992, p. 4).     

On the macroeconomic effects of establishing tradability in weak property rights

The New Economy is closely associated with computing & communications technology, notably the Internet. We discuss property rights to, and trade in, the difficult-to-define intangible assets increasingly dominating the New Economy, and the possibility of under-investment in these assets. For a realistic analysis we introduce a Schumpeterian market environment (the experimentally organized economy). Weak property rights prevail when the rights to access, use, andtrade in intangible assets cannot be fully exercised. The trade-off between the benefits of open access on the Internet, and the incentive effects of strengthened property rights, depend both on the particular strategy a firm employs to secure property rights, and the protection offered by law. Economic property rights can be strengthened if the originator can find innovative ways to charge for the intangible assets. The extreme complexity of the New Economy and the large number of possible innovative private contract arrangements make it more important to facilitate the use and enforcement of private individualized contracts to protect intellectual property than to rely only on standard patent and copyright law. Enabling law is one proposed solution. Current patent legislation in the US has led to costly litigation processes weakening the position of small firms and individuals in patent disputes. The property rights of such firms and individuals could be strengthened with insurance or arbitration procedures.JEL Classification: D21, D23, D52, D82, H54, K11, K22, K41, L11, L23, M13, O14, O33An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 9th Congress of the International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society (ISS), Gainesville, Florida, USA, March 28-30, 2002. The paper is part of the Nödfor project on Schumpeterian Creative Destruction, notably the exit and bankruptcy process, based at the Ratio Institute, Stockholm.     

On the optimum spacing of sample quantiles from a normal distribution. Part I

Abstract

Assume that a large number of observations are made on a normal random variable with the density function where σ σ 0, When the sample is very large the ordinary estimates of µ and a involve considerable computational work. In order to simplify the estimation of µ and/or σ it is sometimes convenient to select a small number of sample quantiles and to use estimates which are linear functions of these sample quantiles, Such a procedure is particularly convenient when the observations occur naturally in order of magnitude, which happens in life testing, for instance, Let      

Das Zweck-Mittel-Denken in der Nationalökonomie

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Political issues in inland waterways port development: prospects for regionalization

In the vast scientific literature on maritime transport, one theme appears neglected: the juridico-political framework in port development. We first examine how the jurisdictional control influences the allocation of resources and financial responsibilities. Second, we carefully evaluate conventional theoretical explanations of the process of port development as it generates important consequences on port policy formulation. We suggest that the concept of the port transition needs to be positioned within a new paradigm of the regional economy. Third, by focusing on three case studies namely France, China and Canada, we provide an understanding of institutional structure and how they reflect tendencies in port development. We then investigate regional flows, particularly the role of offshore, inshore and coastal traffic. Fourth, we present policy options for regionalization of ports. Fifth, we explore the regional elements of the port transition and provide an appreciation of the new role of the State in port development policies. The paper concludes on the adoption of new paradigm in port development strategies.     

A Presumptive Pigovian Tax: Complementing Regulation to Mimic an Emissions Fee

If regulations are used to make cars and fuels cleaner, shouldgasoline taxes be used to manage demand for trips that pollute?Analysis of a well-composed program for Mexico City indicatesthat the emission reductions would cost 24 percent more if atax on gasoline was not introduced. A simple analytical framework is developed to analyze the useof abatement requirements to make cars cleaner, and a gasolinetax to economize on the use of cars. The two instruments shouldbe combined to mimic the incentives that would have been providedby an emissions fee. Thus, cleaner cars and fewer trips areanalogous to competing suppliers of emission reductions; theplanner should buy from both so that marginal costs are equal.Applying that rule, the marginal cost of emission reductionsis, simply, the gasoline tax rate divided by emissions per liter.