A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cultural Dimensions,Technology Knowledge and Economic Growth

Using data from 65 countries over the period 1980–2003, this paper investigates the role that cultural dimensions play in the process of technological change, innovation and adoption and consequently on the steady state level of output per worker and its growth, using spatial econometrics techniques to account for spatial dependence between countries. Initial findings indicate that differences across cultural dimensions act as a leveling effect but not as long run growth determinants. In addition, when controlling for physical and human capital accumulation, culture plays a much smaller role in explaining differences in income per capita than initially thought, with little effect on output per worker growth along the transitional dynamics path. Spatial econometric considerations are relevant in explaining differences across rates of growth of per worker output, but not in terms of steady‐state levels of income.     

Fuzzy Negotiation Solutions of n-Person Cooperative Games by Knowledge Engineering in Bargaining

A model for negotiation is developed upon the basis of a previous model called Fuzzy Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering. The new model, called Compensatory Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering and FNSKE are based on the combination of knowledge of experts in negotiation, rather than on classical notions of rationality. The experts in negotiation present four propositions in a non-mathematical way and with a natural language, according to the theory of Knowledge Engineering. In the CNSKE model, knowledge is represented through logic predicates, and the calculations are made using the Compensatory Fuzzy Logic system. CFL is a system whose operators satisfy the axioms of Utility. The CFL operators, especially because of the compensation property, are more adequate than the norm and co-norm’s operators to model human decision-making, according to empirical results. The Good Deal Index in CNSKE is statistically estimated from the GDI in FNSKE. This is a quantitative index, which provides the solution concept. The fuzzy function f(C) represents the likelihood the players of a coalition C to reach an agreement into this coalition. Counterpart Convenience Indexes 1, 2 allow each player to select the best coalition for negotiation. The advantage of CNSKE over FNSKE is that the idempotency of conjunction and disjunction operators give every membership function -obtained from the predicates- the possibility to be interpreted by itself. Hence, the truth-values of the CNSKE membership functions can be semantically interpreted. In addition, CNSKE can be easily applied to solve real negotiation problems.     

Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru

Using repeated cross-section annual data for Peru spanning 2002–2011 and non-parametric duration analysis, our estimates support the hypothesis that both stay in and exit from poverty (non-poverty) depends on the duration and sequence of poverty (non-poverty) spells. We find that longer periods in poverty reduce the probability of leaving poverty and, conversely, longer periods spent out of poverty reduce the chance of falling back into poverty. Also, we show that, at least in the last decade (of high economic growth), the probability of staying in poverty was lower than staying in non-poverty and the probability of re-entering in poverty was higher than re-entering in non-poverty, being both differences growing with the number of accumulated spells. Past experiences of poverty and non-poverty seem to be essential to predict the future status of poverty.     

Does Financial Development Promote Innovation in Developing Economies? An Empirical Analysis

Using firm‐level data from 2006 to 2013 for a set of developing countries, we examine the effects of financial development on innovation. Financial development boosts innovation by improving resource allocation and investment in strategic sectors as well as facilitating technology to promote growth. Using binary response models and instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity, we find robust but puzzling results. Contrary to most of the existing literature, financial development has a negative effect on the probability of a firm to innovate in developing countries. This effect is conditional on firm size, and only larger firms benefit from financial development. These results are robust to different measures of financial development and econometric specifications. We argue that this is a result of the design of the financial system in regard to the lack of capital and institutional system. Consequently, developing countries should first generate appropriate institutional conditions if they want financial development to spur growth through innovation.     

Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence

The literature on monetary economy has aroused growing interest in macroeconomics. Due to computational advancements, models have become increasingly more complex and accurate, allowing for an in-depth analysis of the relationships between real economic variables and nominal variables. Therefore, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, based on Gali and Monacelli (2005), we propose and estimate a model for the Brazilian economy by employing Bayesian methods so as to assess whether the Central Bank of Brazil takes exchange rate fluctuations into account in the conduct of monetary policy. The most striking result of the present study is that the Central Bank of Brazil does not directly change the interest rate path due to exchange rate movements. A simulation exercise is also used. Our conclusion is that the economy quickly accommodates shocks induced separately on the exchange rate, on the terms of trade, interest rate, and global inflation.     

Real Estate,Public Works,and Political Organization in Winnipeg, 1870–1885

The second half of the 19^th century represented an era of great territorial expansion in almost all the countries of “recent settlement.” In Canada, Winnipeg, the capital of the Province of Manitoba, went from a small hamlet located at the confluence of the Assiniboine and Red Rivers to become the third largest Canadian city at the turn of the century. I argue that the development of a real estate market and the organization of the local political institutions in Winnipeg were interconnected mechanisms that the emerging business elite used to obtain political and economic power during the years of city organization (1870–1885). The disputes over land ownership and the uncertain distribution of land titles among parties related by business and family ties showed how individuals exploited the weakness of the state to secure personal benefits. In this era, old settlers, newcomers, speculators, and business representatives of central Canada and British firms, acting alone or in partnership, attempted to obtain political control of a city in its making and to acquire power and economic benefits through the commodification of urban land. After a period of corruption and mismanagement, a new group organized within the Board of Trade obtained political control of the city and initiated a new cycle of political stability.     

Productivity,real exchange rate,and aggregate demand: An empirical exercise applied to Brazil from 1960 to 2011

This research analyzes, from a post Kaleckian perspective, the interactions among the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity, and real wages in the Brazilian economy from 1960 to 2011. It adopts the longstanding perspective that demand is the driver of capital accumulation and economic growth. The research comprises the following steps: (a) a critical assessment of the growth regime literature, with a particular emphasis on issues related to productivity and the real exchange rate; (b) understanding the relationship between the real exchange rate and the productivity and growth regimes; (c) proposing a theoretical model that relates the real exchange rate, productivity, and the growth regime; and (d) an empirical test of the interaction between the real exchange rate, productivity, and the growth regime. Theoretically the study develops a model showing the interactions between the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity, and real wages. Furthermore, this research attempts to address the lack of theoretical and empirical studies about the relationship between the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity and real wages.     

Productivity, exporting, and the learning-by-exporting hypothesis: direct evidence from UK firms

Abstract.  Case studies suggest exporters learn from clients. Econometric evidence is mixed. We use firm-level panel data on exporting and productivity with direct information on learning sources, including clients. We find: (a) firms who exported in the past are likely to learn more from clients (relative to other sources); (b) firms who learned from clients in the past are more likely to have faster productivity growth; (c) the reverse is not the case; that is, past productivity growth is not associated with more learning from clients and past learning from clients is not associated with more exporting. These results are consistent with the learning-by-exporting hypothesis.     

Recontextualizing Clarence Ayres’s The Theory of Economic Progress through Archival Evidence

Abstract

Our article seeks to recontextualize Clarence Ayres’s The Theory of Economic Progress through a reconsideration of the criticisms of the book and Ayres’s personal standpoint on it. We believe that the negative reception of the book conveys the mainstream perspective. Additionally, our article stresses some of Ayres’s thoughts on Western society that were not included in The Theory of Economic Progress but were introduced by him through correspondence around the same time his famous book was written and disseminated. We conclude that Ayres was more radical than his writings reveal.     

International mobility of capital,wage indexation,and the cost of policy mistakes under ambiguity: a CGE evaluation

In this paper we focus on the role institutions and structural parameters play in macroeconomic policy design and test the differential effects of tax policies on two structural parameters: the degree of international capital mobility and the rules of wage indexation practiced in the economy. We evaluate counterfactual changes in taxation in the Argentine economy using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model with unemployment, calibrated with 2006 data, showing that policy mistakes (diagnosis failures) are costlier when the degree of capital mobility is greater and the rules to determine salaries could amplify the losses. Among other taxes, we evaluate the choice of export taxation, historically one of the preferred revenue sources of Argentine governments. We discuss the choice of taxes that an optimistic and a pessimistic policymaker will make under Knightian uncertainty and find that, in the case of our CGE, an optimistic policymaker prefers to tax export goods, while a more pessimistic one tends to tax imports or non-tradable goods.