Transitions: Two steps from theory to policy

This paper bridges a gap between emergent transition theories and the policy maker facing societal transitions when making long-term policy. Using a two-step approach the abstract concepts are linked to the realm of the policy maker. First the forces underlying transitions are identified and second where they can be found is presented. For this a conceptual map of societal systems, the clover model, is introduced. With the clover model the structures, cultures and practices of societal systems can be found. Furthermore, intermediate changes are systematically treated to track the phases of a transition. These transition diagnostics are supplemented with recommended policy frameworks.     

A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Pollution in the Netherlands

This paper reviews the results of a structural decomposition analysis in which the annual changes in a number of air pollutants and solid waste are decomposed according to their causes. The analysis in this paper is applied with the help of the so-called National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) for the Netherlands, covering annual data for the period 1987-1998. In a sensitivity analysis it is shown that the average of any pair of so-called 'mirror image' decomposition forms will substantially reduce the variation in the estimates. These mirror image couples are approximately just as reliable as the full average of all decomposition forms. Besides reliable results, the full average also foresees the mutual comparability between the distinguished change factors and is therefore applied in the empirical analyses presented in this paper. The results of these analyses contain the macro-economic developments, results on the industry level as well as a comprehensive overview of the origin and destination of pollution in the Dutch economy that includes the environmental consequences of consumption and international trade.     

Market structure and the demand for veterinary services in India

The livestock sector is emerging as one of the fastest growing agricultural sub‐sectors in India and the expectations are that this growth could further accelerate due to growing incomes and the high income elasticity of demand for livestock products. Given the size and relatively equitable distribution of livestock in India, this presents an excellent opportunity for the country to boost rural incomes and accelerate the pace of poverty reduction. But, successful capitalisation of such opportunities requires a policy regime that facilitates growth in productivity at the farm level as well as in the processing sector. The productive potential of animals depends crucially on the quality of nutrition, genetic material and the animal health system, and on all these counts, India has a poor record. The public sector continues to be the primary provider of veterinary services, and the deteriorating fiscal situation of most state governments is making it extremely difficult to either expand the reach of these services or improve the quality of service delivery. Although, on efficiency grounds, there is good rationale for commercialised delivery of these services, serious concerns prevail in India about the equity implications of private sector delivery or full cost recovery within the government system. Evaluation of the desirability of user fees or private delivery of livestock services requires an understanding of the factors influencing the demand for these services. This paper examines the nature of demand for veterinary services in three states of India and presents first estimates of demand elasticities for veterinary services. The results indicate that price is not an important determinant of the decision to use these services. Also, practically no variation is found in price elasticities across income groups. These results suggest that the fears of sharp declines in the use of these services as a result of full cost recovery and/or private sector delivery are unfounded.     

Why is intelligent technology alone not an intelligent solution?

This article investigates how intelligence can contribute to the flexibility of infrastructures. Intelligent solutions, here, are ways to optimise the capacity, efficiency, safety, sustainability, etc. of an infrastructure system, typically by means of ICT-based information processing. For this, three cases are presented of implementations of intelligent solutions. Viewing the infrastructure as part of a constellation, serving to fulfil a societal need, the problems encountered in these cases are found to be of a similar nature. It is found that intelligent technology in itself is not enough for an intelligent solution, the users and operators need to be involved in a learning process, and the institutions will need to be changed as well. Consequently, the design should not focus on the intelligent infrastructure alone, not only on the end goal, but rather the transition phase itself should be designed carefully, with much attention for intermediate and hybrid stages where sometimes the flexibility gained from the intelligent solution can already be put to use.     

Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents II: Multi-country real business cycle models

This paper describes the second model considered in the computational suite project that compares the performance of different numerical algorithms. It is a multi-country model in which countries face different productivity shocks. Solving such models is a challenging numerical problem unless the number of countries is small. The solutions are functions of a large set of arguments and the functional forms are unknown. Moreover, the solution procedures have to deal with high-dimensional integration problems.