The Term Structure of Interest Differentials in a Target Zone with Time-varying Devaluation Risk

We extend Svensson's (1991b) analysis of the term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone. First, the model includes a time-varying devaluation risk, and second, we analyse the term structure of interest differentials vis-a-vis Germany in five countries: Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy and the Netherlands. In our sample, 1983–1993, we differentiate between stable and unstable periods. The findings for Denmark and the Netherlands, and for Belgium in the relatively stable period are broadly in line with Svensson's theory, whereas the other results are more in accordance with the model that allows for a time-varying devaluation risk.
(J.E.L. E43, F31).     

Are small countries too powerful within the ECB?

This paper analyzes the possible consequences of diverging economic developments within the euro area, given the current decision-making process of the European Central Bank (ECB). For the German Bundesbank, the role model of the ECB, there is evidence that differences in the economic situation in the various states affected voting behavior in the Governing Council. For the euro area countries, the paper finds that, despite convergence, important differences in terms of economic performance and preferences remain. As all national central banks have one vote within the Governing Council of the ECB, there is a risk that national considerations may prevail over EMU-wide considerations.     

Saving,investment, and capital mobility: A comment on Leachman

In this note we use a consistent long-run data set recently published by Maddison (1991) for 10 countries to examine the long-run relationship between saving and investment. In contrast to recent findings of Leachman (1991) we conclude that saving and investment are cointegrated in many countries. Our results suggest that aggregate demand and supply shocks explain much of the time series correlation between total saving and investment.     

Budget deficits, monetization, and centralbank independence in developing countries

Using various indicators for central bank independence we examinethe relationship between central bank independence and governmentbudget deficits. Using a two-stage procedure we also analyzewhether central bank independence affects the monetization ofdeficits. First, the monetization relation in each country isestimated and then the resulting accommodation coefficientsare related to central bank independence. We conclude that onlyif the turnover rate of central bank governors or the politicalvulnerability mdex is used monetary accommodation of deficitsis negatively related to central bank independence. There isno relationship between independence and the level of budgetdeficits     

The influence of government ideology on monetary policy: New cross‐country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels

Using data of 23 OECD countries over the 1980–2005 period, we examine whether government ideology affects monetary policy, conditional on central bank independence. Unlike previous studies in this line of literature, we estimate central bank behavior using forward‐looking and real‐time data in Taylor rule models and use estimators that allow for heterogeneity across countries. Our models with heterogeneous slope coefficients for the full sample do not suggest partisan effects. We also do not find evidence that central bank behavior is conditioned by the interaction of the ideology of the incumbent government and the electoral calendar.     

Did Oral Interventions by the Indonesian Central Bank Support the Rupiah?

Most previous studies on the effectiveness of oral interventions (statements by officials in support of the exchange rate) focus on industrial countries. The present paper examines whether statements by Bank Indonesia officials (i.e. the central bank of Indonesia) during the period 2004–2007 have had any effect on the level and volatility of the rupiah–dollar exchange rate. Our exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models suggest that oral interventions have little impact on the level of the spot exchange rate, but increase the volatility of the spot exchange rate. Oral interventions indicating a stronger or weaker rupiah also have little influence on the level of the forward exchange rate while neutral statements lead to more volatility.     

TAKING THE ENVIRONMENT INTO ACCOUNT: THE NAMEA APPROACH

The National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) shows environmental burdens that are consistent with the economic figures in the national accounts. In the NAMEA, the existing national accounts matrix has been extended with accounts in physical units. On the basis of the expected contribution of each polluting substance to a particular environmental problem, emissions are converted to theme equivalents. This results in six summary environmental indicators that are directly comparable to the conventional economic aggregates. In addition, this meso-level information system can be used as the core data framework for integrated analyses and forecasts of economic and environmental changes.     

Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes

This paper investigates which factors determine whether sudden stops in international capital flows are followed by a currency crash using data for 85 economies in the period 1980–2012. An event study approach is used for an 11‐year window around the crises for nine potential explanatory variables. In addition, the paper estimates discrete‐choice panel models. The results suggest that low trade openness, shallow financial markets, and current account imbalances increase the likelihood that a sudden stop will be followed by a currency crash. Moreover, it is established that the impact of these factors differs across different exchange rate regimes.     

Sound taxation? On the use of self-declared value

In the 16th century, foreign ships passing through the Sound had to pay ad valorem taxes, known as the Sound Dues. To give skippers an incentive to declare the true value of their cargo, the Danish Crown reserved the right to purchase it at the declared value. We show that this rule does not induce truth-telling, but does allow the authorities to effectively implement a given tax rate.     

Paying for the environmental services of silvopastoral practices in Nicaragua

Agricultural landscapes can provide many valuable ecosystem services, but many are externalities from the perspective of farmers and so tend to be under-produced. This paper examines an effort to make direct payments for ecosystem services (PES) in an agricultural landscape. The Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Ecosystem Management Project is piloting the use of PES to induce adoption of silvopastoral practices in the Matiguás-Río Blanco area in Nicaragua. Silvopastoral practices could substantially improve service provision while retaining agricultural production, but they have found only limited acceptance among farmers. The Silvopastoral Project seeks to increase their adoption by paying farmers for the expected increase in biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration services that these practices would provide. The Project developed an ‘environmental services index’ (ESI) and pays participants for net increases in ESI points. Although the Silvopastoral Project is still underway, it already appears to have succeeded in inducing farmers to increase substantially the use of practices that generate higher levels of ecosystem services. In the project's first two years, over 24% of the total area experienced some form of land use change. The area of degraded pasture fell by two thirds, while pastures with high tree density increased substantially, as did fodder banks and live fences. On-going monitoring indicates that these land use changes are in fact generating the desired services. Questions remain about the long-term sustainability of the approach, however. To ensure sustainability, long-term payments are likely to be needed, raising the question of how they will be financed. Payments by water users and by carbon buyers provide a partial answer to this challenge, but still leave many gaps.