What Do Current Account Reversals in OECD Countries Tell Us About the US Case?

This study examines macroeconomic developments around reversals in current account deficits in 29 OECD countries over four decades and draws some inferences for the present US deficit. Estimates of a probit model indicate that the deepness of the deficit itself, absence of spare production capacity and a beginning real depreciation are factors that increase the likelihood of a current account reversal in the following year. For the US each of these three indicators of a reversal are now on, making a near reversal probable. Over the past 40 years half of the current account deficit reversals in the OECD area were followed by a recession in the countries concerned.     

Quotas and equilibrium relative prices in the trade restricting country

This paper is concerned with the effects of international trade restriction through quotas. It is shown that a casual relationship exists between the fraction of licences distributed domestically, the terms of trade, and the domestic relative price of the importable.     

A note on tariffs,quotas and the Metzler Paradox: An alternative approach

Conclusions Under the given assumptions, the introduction of an import quota always results in a price increase of the scarce factor. This conclusion confirms that of Falvey [1975] that the Metzler Paradox cannot occur with import quotas. Moreover, we have shown this to be true regardless of the new terms of trade. The introduction of an import quota will, in general, lead to a lower welfare level. This holds for non-prohibitive protection in those situations in which the terms of trade either remain unchanged or worsen. If the terms of trade improve, a higher welfare level can be attained depending on the degree of the improvement and on the size of the quota. The development of the terms of trade can be used as an indication of the price increase of the scarce factor. The more favourable the new terms of trade for the trade restricting country, the greater the advantage accruing to the scarce factor. The effectiveness of the protective measures for distributional purposes coincides thus with the development of the terms of trade.     

Bank size, market concentration, and bank earnings volatility in the US

We examine whether bank earnings volatility depends on bank size and the degree of concentration in the banking sector. Using quarterly data for non-investment banks in the United States for the period 2004Q1-2009Q4 and controlling for the quality of management, leverage, and diversification, we find that bank size reduces return volatility. The negative impact of bank size on bank earnings volatility decreases (in absolute terms) with market concentration. We also find that larger banks located in concentrated markets have experienced higher volatility during the recent financial crisis.     

Die falschen Angriffe auf das Ehegattensplitting

These articles debate the pros and cons of the full income-splitting tax procedure. Ernst Niemeier defends this taxation scheme, because in his opinion it is not aimed at furthering families or children but making sure that a couple does not have to pay more taxes than two singles. He argues that there are constitutional reasons to treat equal incomes equally, which he refers to as “horizontal justice”. Furthermore, he rejects evidence of a negative labour supply effect on the second earner. A team of authors at the DIW find his argumentation not at all convincing. First, they say, determining tax justice or ability to pay is ultimately a political question and cannot be determined by scientists or the courts. Thus, a constitutional determination of marriage taxation on the existing full income-splitting procedure is excessive. Second, the empirical evidence of negative labour supply effects of full income splitting for the second earner can simply not be denied. Niemeier argues why such supply effects cannot exist.     

CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY: A SURVEY

This paper reviews recent research on the relationship between central bank policies and inequality. A new paradigm which integrates sticky‐prices, incomplete markets, and heterogeneity among households is emerging, which allows for the joint study of how inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates and how macroeconomic shocks and policies affect inequality. The new paradigm features multiple distributional channels of monetary policy. Most empirical studies, however, analyze each potential channel of redistribution in isolation. Our review suggests that empirical research on the effects of conventional monetary policy on income and wealth inequality yields mixed findings, although there seems to be a consensus that higher inflation, at least above some threshold, increases inequality. In contrast to common wisdom, conclusions concerning the impact of unconventional monetary policies on inequality are also not clear cut. To better understand policy effects on inequality, future research should focus on the estimation of General Equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents.