Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence

This paper reviews recent research on central bank independence (CBI). After we have distinguished between independence and conservativeness, research in which the inflationary bias is endogenised is reviewed. Finally, the various challenges that have been raised against previous empirical findings on CBI are discussed. We conclude that the negative relationship between CBI and inflation is quite robust.     

Apply with Caution: Introducing UK‐Style In‐Work Support in Germany*

Estimates of the labour supply effects of recent UK reforms in the area of direct taxes and benefits show that policy can have significant influence on the level of employment. We confirm this in a simulation of an in‐work support system introduced into the German tax and benefit system. Our simulation results suggest that introducing in‐work tax credits in Germany would increase the employment of single individuals by over 105,000 but would result in a reduction of labour supply among individuals living in couples by about 70,000, among both women and men. The result found for men is especially important as it is markedly different from all results for the UK, where the net response among men has always been found to be positive. Our estimation results call for a high degree of caution as far as ‘importing’ UK‐style tax credits to Germany is concerned. In‐work support based on family income would reinforce the existing work disincentives for secondary earners, reducing the employment levels of both men and women living in couples.     

Sudden stops of international fund flows: Occurrence and magnitude

Using data of 65 economies from January 2000 (2008) to June 2015, we examine the covariates of sudden stops in fund equity and bond flows. Our results suggest that global, contagion and domestic factors are all related to the likelihood of sudden stops. For sudden stops in equity flows, global factors play a more important role in high‐income economies. For sudden stops in bond flows, global variables are the most important covariates in emerging economies, whereas domestic variables play a more important role in high‐income economies. We also find that global and contagion factors are correlated to the magnitude of sudden stops.     

Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using explicit aggregation

We propose a method to solve models with heterogeneous agents and aggregate uncertainty. The law of motion describing aggregate behavior is obtained by explicitly aggregating the individual policy rule. The algorithm is simpler and faster than existing algorithms that rely on parameterization of the cross-sectional distribution and/or a computationally intensive simulation step. Explicit aggregation establishes a link between the individual policy rule and the set of necessary aggregate state variables, an insight that can be helpful in determining what state variables to include in other algorithms as well.     

A State Within the State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank (1948–1973)

In this paper we analyse certain periods in the history of the Bundesbank concentrating on the determinants of central bank independence as suggested in the literature. The Bundesbank law of 1957 was born only after a long and tedious political process which outcome was initially not at all clear. It is concluded that some determinants outlined in the literature played indeed a role in the making of the Bundesbank Law of 1957. Still, the Bundesbank was put in charge of the Dmark by the Allieds and this proved to be advantagous for the new institution, as was the subsequent debate about federalism. We argue that popular backing is one of the important forces in support of the Bundesbank's independence. However, this support is not exogenous, as the Bundesbank has always tried to influence public opinion. Our analysis of the conflicts between the Bundesbank and the federal government over monetary policy suggest that if a conflict concerned interest rate policy, the Bundesbank always got its way. Even with respect to exchange rate policy, which is primarily in the realm of the federal government, the position of the Bundesbank often prevailed, as the Bundesbank behaved skilfully. The history of the Bundesbank also provides ample evidence of coordination problems with fiscal policy that may arise with two independent players. Finally, it is clear that the theory on the determinants of central bank independence overlooks that very often the government and the Bundesbank were not two monolithic entities, but that there were different views about policy.     

Bank-Specific Daily Interest Rate Adjustment in the Dutch Mortgage Market

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the interest rate setting behavior of the four largest banks in the Dutch mortgage market, using advertised interest rates at a daily frequency. The evidence for the long run pricing behaviour suggests that the banks operate in a competitive environment as they base their interest rates on funding cost. However, two banks appear to be less cost sensitive than the others. In the short run, most of the banks adjust their rates less strongly to funding cost increases than to decreases, which suggests competitive pressures. For one bank significant evidence is found for a quicker response to negative than to positive deviations of actual from desired interest rates.     

A study of the believability of the forms of puffery

This study tested consumers' perceptions of the believability of puffery in advertising. Forms of puffery have been ranked for their potential ability to deceive consumers. Subjects were asked to rate how believable they found examples of each of the six forms of puffery. The study compared the believability of the claims with the subjects' familiarity and experiences with the products about which the claims were made. The results of a one-way analysis of variance showed little difference between consumers' levels of believability across five of the six levels of puffery. Overall, most consumers did not feel strongly one way or another about the believability of the puffed claims. That both familiarity and experience with the products significantly influenced the believability of the claims made in the study was indicated by χ²-tests. Recommendations are made concerning marketers' use of puffery. Topics for future research in the area are also suggested.     

Hospital service recovery

An organization's ability to correct service errors is an important factor in achieving success in today's service economy. This paper examines service recovery in hospitals in the U.S. First is a general review of service recovery theories. Next is a discussion of specific service issues related to the hospital environment. The literature on service recovery is used to make specific recommendations to hospitals for ways to improve their ability to remedy service errors when they occur. Suggestions for future research in the field of service recovery are also made.