Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets

Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among weekly real interest rates for G-10 countries are examined using a variety of time-series tests. These tests give special attention to the time-series properties of nominal interest rates, ex-ante expected rates of inflation and real interest rates. Term structure information is used to recover a theoretically consistent measure of ex-ante expected inflation. In-sample and out-of-sample Granger causality tests are also examined to evaluate lead/lag relationships among real interest rates. The results provide strong support for well-integrated markets, particularly in the long run. The results imply leadership roles for the US in international asset markets.     

Lies,Damn Lies,and Statistics: Why a Widely Used Sustainability Metric Fails and How to Improve It

Most of the world's major corporations now publicly report their sustainability performance for a number of key parameters, such as water use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and waste generated. The metrics most often used to track progress are “total inventory” (for example, the total liters of water used, or the total tons of GHGs emitted) and average intensity (total liters of water used per ton of product or per $1 million revenue). Because average intensity is normalized for the company's level of business activity, it is commonly presented and viewed as a measure of the company's actual year‐to‐year efficiency. But average intensity is often not a reliable measure of a company's true performance in sustainability. An improvement in efficiency requires a company to consume fewer resources or generate less waste in delivering a specified unit measure of goods or services. This article demonstrates that, although efficiency directly contributes to average intensity, the measure is influenced by a number of confounding factors that make the change in average intensity a potentially misleading indicator of improvements in efficiency. The authors present a more reliable measure of changes in efficiency—one that is likely to benefit corporate managements as well as users of sustainability data—that makes use of flexible budgeting techniques. Examples are provided that illustrate Bacardi Limited's application of the sustainability efficiency metric for external sustainability reporting.     

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia

Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.     

Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies’ stock returns

This study examines whether the stock prices of Turkish tourism companies respond to growth in eight macro-economic variables namely, consumer price index, imports, exchange rate, consumer confidence index, oil price, money supply, foreign tourist arrivals, and monthly stock market return. By applying the Granger causality procedure, we find that growth in the consumer confidence index and imports could Granger cause tourism companies’ stock returns among eight macro factors in Turkey during the 2005 to 2013 period. After considering the structural break that occurred in 2007, the pre-break results indicate that the consumer confidence index, exchange rate, and foreign tourist arrivals could Granger cause tourism stock returns. However, the results in the post-structural break period reveal that only growths in oil prices and imports are significant.     

Efficacy of the theory of communication competence and personality traits in predicting tour guides’ income

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to explain the extent to which communication competencies and personality types influence tour guides’ performances, as measured by two livelihood indicators: earned tips and overall income. Data were collected from a sample of 387 professional tour guides via self-report survey. The study results suggest that some verbal and non-verbal communication competencies play a role in predicting tips earned. Moreover, the study has found that three of the Big Five personality traits are useful predictors of tips and general income. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed within the realm of Theory of Communication Competence and Big Five Personality Traits.     

QRA of chemical reaction systems: The state of the practice

This paper discusses a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of an exothermic chemical process. Fault tree/event tree techniques were used to estimate the frequency of runaway reactions that could result in over-pressure and vessel rupture. The paper focuses on the current methodology used in performing this type of study, emphasizing analytical techniques that help avoid potential time-consuming pitfalls. The challenging problem of predicting how rare sequences of events (e.g., involving failure of several engineered control and safety systems) will develop is systematically modeled using fault trees/event trees, which makes the QRA process a unique and powerful analytical tool. The results of this study provided the guidance for selecting the most appropriate action(s) to implement from a set of various design options for improving the safety of this system. Use of QRA has enabled plant management to have confidence that they are selecting the most cost-effective safety improvement option.     

Assessing changes in teachers’ attitudes toward interdisciplinary STEM teaching

Integrating engineering and technology concepts into K-12 science and math curricula through engineering design project-based learning has been found to increase students’ interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), however preparing teachers to shift to interdisciplinary teaching remains a significant challenge. Primarily teachers need to develop both skills and attitudes toward interdisciplinary teaching. In doing so, professional development (PD) is considered a key component in helping teachers through this transformation process. In an educational environment of accountability, measuring the effects of PD programs on teacher behaviors and capacity is essential but often elusive. The current study describes the change in attitudes to interdisciplinary teaching of 29 self-selected middle and high school teachers who participated a PD workshop and in delivering a 12–15 week interdisciplinary teaching and design problem unit that spanned multiple STEM subjects. This quasi-experimental pilot study implemented a single group pretest–posttest design using survey methods to collect data from the participants at two intervals; at the time of the PD workshop and at the completion of the teaching unit that emphasized a long-term engineering design problem. The goals of this research are to (1) assess the changes in attitudes to interdisciplinary teaching, attitudes to teamwork, teaching satisfaction, and resistance to change, (2) explore relationships among these changes, (3) and describe the variation in these changes across teachers’ gender, school level, discipline taught, and education level.     

Entrepreneurial Intention and UAE Youth: Unique Influencers of Entrepreneurial Intentions in an Emerging Country Context

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a young, oil-rich country, where national youth display a clear preference for public sector employment. Growing youth unemployment reinforces the importance of non-government employment, including entrepreneurship. This study investigates UAE national youth intentions toward entrepreneurship through the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ). Analysis (N?=?544) identifies the direct influence of attitude and perceived behavioral control and indirect influence of subjective norms on entrepreneurship intention. Results also examine several demographic variables and highlight the potential importance of family and social groups in promoting entrepreneurial intentions in this emerging country context.     

Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study investigates the impact of both social and news sentiments indices on the dynamic stock–bond correlation across wavelet-based...     

Incentive Effects in Higher Education: an Improved Funding Model for Universities

We examine the incentive effects of risk‐sharing between student and university in the English higher education system. The ‘graduate premium’ has been widely reported and has been used to justify rising higher education participation and increased individual or governmental expenditure. But this premium is simply the mean of a wide distribution, varying, inter alia, by subject, institution, year of graduation and individual. We assume that universities exist in a state of monopolistic competition and are subject to a budget constraint. Using US college data we find evidence suggesting that a funding model which incorporates risk‐sharing improves the efficiency of educational delivery while maintaining subject diversity and access.