Anticipated and unanticipated money: a case study of Malaysia

The paper tests the LSW proposition that unanticipated policy changes affect real economic variables by using Malaysian data over the period 1970:1–1990:4. The empirical evidence changes in fiscal policy and balance of payments do not affect real output, thus lending support to the proposition. On the other hand, anticipated monetary policy and inflation influence output in the short-run, lending support to Mishkin's views of the economy and rejecting the LSW proposition. In addition, the long-run neutrality proposition is not supported by the data. Moreover, unanticipated changes in inflation do influence real output in the short-run lending support to the LSW proposition. However, unanticipated changes in monetary policy, balance of payments and fiscal policy do not influence real output, lending support to the classical view of the economy and rejecting the LSW proposition. Furthermore, the Monetarist's view that inflation is a monetary phenomenon is rejected. The findings also show that unanticipated movements of money supply contribute significantly to the inflation rate. The Chow test shows that the coefficients remain stable over the period of study.     

Towards a Democratic New Normal? Investor Reactions to Interim-Regime Dominance during Violent Events

Although interim regimes in former autocracies are generally tasked with initiating a democratic ‘new normal’, they may privately intend to become their country’s new autocratic rulers. We argue that, to cope with the uncertainty stemming from this possibility, investors infer an interim regime’s intentions from the dominance displayed by the regime during government-related violence, as reflected in the share of civilian fatalities. Specifically, we propose that investors interpret higher interim-regime dominance as a signal of weaker democratic intentions and associate such weaker intentions with a gloomier political outlook for local firms. We therefore hypothesize that investors react more negatively to violent events characterized by higher interim-regime dominance. We also hypothesize a less negative effect of such dominance for firms with larger foreign footprints, lower indebtedness, or more concentrated ownership, since investors will likely consider such firms more resilient to political deterioration. Applying event study methodology to 94 spells of violence in Egypt during the Arab Spring, we find substantial support for our hypotheses, thus contributing to management research on investor decision-making, violence, and political uncertainty.     

Banking sector development and interest rate volatility in emerging economies

Over the last decades, macroeconomic stability is said to be one of the major concerns of emerging economies. Financial sector as a core of macroeconomic stability has been under close consideration of policy makers. The relationship between interest rate uncertainty and banking sector development as one of the most important indicators of financial sector development, especially for emerging economies, has not received enough attention in the literature. Perhaps this article is the most comprehensive study that investigates the relationship between interest rate uncertainty and banking sector development for a large group of emerging economies. To do this, the short-run and long-run models using a bounds testing approach to cointegration for 12 emerging economies over the period 1980–2011 have been developed. Estimated results from all models indicate that interest rate uncertainty has significant effect on banking sector development in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. The findings indicate that the link between interest rate uncertainty and banking sector development in each country depends on each country’s specific structure.     

Forecasting annual water demands dominated by seasonal variations: the case of water demands in Mecca

Water usage in Mecca is dominated by trends and cyclical variations in the number of foreign pilgrims visiting for the annual Hajj Pilgrimage. Time series regressions show that the mean temperature in Mecca at the time of the Hajj affects the number of pilgrims, inducing a long-term cyclical pattern for this variable and therefore water usage. The cointegrating relation between water usage, number of external pilgrims and temperature produces long-run forecasts of Mecca water demand.     

Earnings response coefficient in the MENA region

This article documents the earnings response coefficient (ERC) for nonfinancial firms listed in the Middle East and North Africa region during the period between 2003 and 2013. Our results show significantly positive ERC for our sample firms. The results are robust across different countries and different industries. Our results also show that ERC increases with increasing the measurement interval. It indicates that more information is incorporated in prices as the measurement interval increase. Consequently, we argue that significance of reported earnings is higher for long-term investors in the MENA region.     

Impact of microcredit on borrowers’ expenditures: a fuzzy regression discontinuity design approach

This article uses the data from 69 villages in Bangladesh to estimate the effect of participation in microcredit programmes on household expenditures. A regression discontinuity design (RDD) is used to identify the credit effect. Our results show heterogeneous treatment effect on different types of expenditures. We show that access to credit reduces per capita expenditure on durable goods such as kitchen equipment, furniture, repair and maintenance of house and increases the expenditure on per school-going child. We also show insignificant impact of access to credit on non-durable goods and health care, recreation and gifts. Interestingly, our results indicate a positive impact of microcredit on village-level expenditures.     

China and India's insertion in the intellectual property rights regime: sustaining or disrupting the rules?

This paper looks at the insertion of China and India in the contested and highly legalised regime of intellectual property rights (IP). In doing so it pays particular attention at two dimensions, the internal adoption of this regime and external endorsement/contestation of international IP norms. Much has been written about whether emerging countries will challenge or support the maintenance of an open rules-based multilateral trade system. In this context, the differentiated integration of these two countries in the IP regime is notable. Domestically, China despite much criticism for widespread IP infringement has followed a maximalist interpretation of TRIPS. India, on the contrary has followed other emerging countries in pursuing a more critical, minimalist understanding. These positions have also been visible at the multilateral arena. This empirical finding runs contrary to the assumption that defiance results from market power. The divergence is the more surprising given a recent explosion of patent filings in both countries. From a political economy perspective, this should translate into support for stricter rules under TRIPS. In explanaining the two countries’ divertent insertion this paper looks beyond economic (market) power and domestic interests and underlines the role of ideational legacies, domestic interests and regulatory capacity. The paper thus stresses the need to look deep into domestic politics and ideational cleavages, as well as at their evolution over time, in order to better understand the international behaviour of emerging countries.     

Natural resources and the tradeoff between authoritarianism and development

Why do African and Middle Eastern countries seem cursed by an abundance of natural resources yet USA, Australia and Norway seem blessed? A growing literature has argued that the benevolence or malignance of natural resources depends upon the quality of institutions. This paper offers a new explanation based on associational freedom and its interaction with the political system. The model predicts that natural resources have an adverse impact on economic performance and transition to democracy in authoritarian regimes but not in democracies. It also predicts that repression of associational freedom will be increasing in natural resources in authoritarian regimes. I test the model's predictions using fixed-effects regressions on an international panel from 1975 to 2000 and find support.     

The impact of market liberalization on vertical scope: the case of Argentina

This paper analyzes the impact of market liberalization on the vertical scope of firms. Using the case of Argentina, it is shown how the opening of the economy can improve contracting abilities and heighten competition, increasing the ability and incentive of firms to outsource. Survey findings support the main hypothesis as well as the specific importance of reforms relating to inflation, import costs, and heightened demand standards in increasing the use of outsourcing. A case study of the steel producer Siderar, highlights that while firms may reduce their presence in peripheral activities, they may also increase their presence in core areas so as to increase their value proposition. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.