Stochastic Dominance and Conditional Expectation—An Insurance Theoretical Approach

We show that the relation of second order stochastic dominance, which has found widespread use in models of economic behavior under uncertainty, may be described in terms of conditional expectation. If a distribution G second order stochastically dominates another distribution F, then there are random variables g and f with distributions G and F, respectively, such that g can be obtained from f by iterated conditional expectation. In terms of insurance, this shows that the less risky distribution can be obtained by a sequence of insurance contracts each one insuring against the residual risk left over from the previous contracts.     

Moving beyond intuition—Managing allocation decisions in relationship marketing in business-to-business markets

Developing and estimating structural models is becoming a routine practice in marketing. In this study, the possibilities of applying such models in managerial decision making under uncertainty are investigated. In particular the feasibility of exploiting the inherent probabilistic nature of structural models to buttress decision making is demonstrated. The approach is based on making heavy use of standard simulation routines. The model that is under scrutiny describes the relationships between firms' efforts in three areas (the offer, customer relationships, and market positions) on the success of a new product introduction. Special attention is given to the aspect of risk aversion. Accounting for the risk attitude implies different allocation decisions for risk-averse compared to risk-prone managers, in line with common sense.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Impact and long-run effects of economic disturbances in a dynamic model of exchange rate determination

Zusammenfassung Unmittelbare und langfristige Wirkungen wirtschaftlicher St?rungen in einem dynamischen Modell der Wechselkursbestimmung. — Dieser Aufsatz bringt ein vollst?ndiges, wenn auch einfaches Modell einer kleinen offenen Volkswirtschaft mit flexiblen Wechselkursen. Es enth?lt sowohl finanzielle als auch güterwirtschaftliche Sektoren und verbindet die Au\enhandelstheorie mit der Makro?konomie und der monet?ren Theorie. Der Hauptzweck unserer Analyse ist es, die wechselseitigen Beziehungen zwischen Finanz- und Güterm?rkten bei der Bestimmung der Wechselkurse zu untersuchen. Wir zeigen auch, wie Wechselkurs?nderungen zu realen Wirkungen führen k?nnen. Die Analyse konzentriert sich auf die unmittelbaren und langfristigen Effekte sowie den dynamischen Anpassungsproze\. Es wird gezeigt, da\ sich die kurzfristigen Wirkungen grunds?tzlich von den langfristigen Wirkungen unterscheiden k?nnen. Ein Beitrag dieser Arbeit liegt darin zu zeigen, da\ es einen Konflikt zwischen kurz- und langfristigen Effekten der Geldpolitik geben kann. Die Ergebnisse lassen vermuten, da\ Modelle, die nur dazu dienen, unmittelbare Wirkungen zu untersuchen, in die Irre leiten k?nnen und deshalb ungeeignet sind, wenn es um die Festlegung der Wirtschaftspolitik geht.

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Resume Les effets d’impact et à long terme des perturbations économiques dans un modèle dynamique de la détermination du taux de change. — Cet article présente un complet, bien que simple modèle d’une petite économie ouverte avec un taux de change flexible; le modèle consiste des secteurs financiers et réels et combine la théorie de commerce extérieur avec la théorie macroéconomique et monétaire. Le but principal de notre analyse est d’explorer l’interaction des marchés financiers et des biens en cours de la détermination du taux de change. Nous démontrons aussi comment les changements du taux de change peuvent causer des effets réels. L’analyse se concentre sur les effets d’impact, les effets de ?steady state? et la dynamique d’ajustement. Nous pouvons dire que les effets d’impact peuvent être qualitativement différents de ceux à long terme. Une des contributions de cet article est de démontrer qu’ un conflit est possible entre les effets à court terme et à long terme de la politique monétaire. Les résultats semblent suggérer que des modèles, qui ne sont construits que d’ explorer les effets d’impact peuvent être très égarants et c’est pourquoi peu s?rs en ce qui concerne la formulation de la politique économique.

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Resumen Impacto y efectos de largo plazo de perturbaciones económicas en un modelo dinámico de determinatión de la tasa de cambio. — En este artículo se presenta un modelo completo, aunque simple, de una economía abierta y peque∼na con una tasa de cambio flexible. El modelo consiste de ambos sectores, uno financiero y otro real, y combina la teoria del comercio con macroeconomia y teoría monetaria. El propósito principal de nuestro análisis es investigar la interacción de los mercados financieros y de bienes en la determinación de la tasa de cambio. También mostramos cómo variaciones en la tasa de cambio pueden conducir a efectos reales. El análisis se centra sobre efectos de impacto, efectos de ?steady state? y dinámica de ajuste. Se establece que efectos de impacto pueden ser cualitativamente diferentes de efectos de largo plazo. Una de las contribuciones de este articulo consiste en demostrar que puede haber un conflicto entre efectos de corto y largo plazo de la politica monetaria. Los resultados tienden a sugerir que modelos que se construyen solamente con el propósito de investigar efectos de impacto pueden ser muy desconcertantes y por tanto no confiables en cuanto a formulatión de politicas se refiere.

     

Institutions and business networks: A comparative analysis of the Chinese, Russian, and West European markets

The paper analyses business networks originating from three markets: Chinese, Russian, and West European. So far, little attention has been given to the fact that business networks in particular markets may be dissimilar because of differences among institutions. The paper advances a model where institutions are assumed to influence five major characteristics of business; (1) the processual aspects of the network, (2) the structural aspects of the network, (3) the function of firms and relationships in the network, (4) the meaning of strategy and planning, and (5) social relationships in the context of inter-firm relationships. The analysis builds on three types of substances of institutions — cognitive, normative, and regulative, which in turn are specified according to different aspects. The cognitive substance of business networks is explored through the aspects of self, time, and causality. The normative substance is explored through the aspects of achieved versus ascribed status, inner versus outer direction, universalism versus particularism, and trust. The regulative substance is specified as an authority system and a sanction system. The analysis demonstrates that, as institutions differ in these three markets, the business among them also differs in terms of the five characteristics, and this variation calls for different strategies for firms operating in these markets.     

The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation

The most flamboyant economic effect of the euro changeover on consumers was a dramatic increase in perceived inflation. To directly measure perceived inflation, Brachinger developed a new index of perceived inflation (IPI). This index is based on some hypotheses about factors influencing perceived inflation. An experimental study is presented which investigated the influence of two of these hypothesized factors, purchase frequency and loss aversion, on individual judgments of price changes. Furthermore, two additional factors have been included that are informative with respect to the IPI, product segment and price level. Judgments of inflation were assessed with three methods, yielding different results. Empirical evidence for the hypotheses was obtained.      

Local Social Capital and Entrepreneurship

We aim to contribute to the analysis of the role that spacebound social capital plays in local/regional entrepreneurship. We compare social capital with other forms of capital. The conclusion is that in the main, social capital can be analyzed in the same way as other capital but it has some important special attributes. With these attributes as starting point we sketch an outline model of how the spatially-defined producer surplus and consumer surplus form a place surplus, and of the role played by social capital in the creation of the producer surplus. A "rereading" of Schumpeter shows that he was aware of several aspects of what we denominate entrepreneurship-inhibiting and facilitating aspects of social capital. Finally, we discuss some formal economic modeling approaches to the theoretical relationship between social capital and entrepreneurship.     

Indicators of opinion leadership in customer networks: self-reports and degree centrality

In this paper, we assess two alternative indicators of opinion leadership, self-reported opinion leadership and degree centrality, on the same dataset. We also investigate the interaction effect of these two indicators and the social network environment on opinion leadership. We use social network and survey data from the mobile telecom industry to analyze opinion leadership in smartphone adoption. We find that degree centrality indicates opinion leadership, but that self-reported opinion leadership indicates opinion leadership only under the right social circumstances. In case of weak to moderate network ties, the effect of self-reported opinion leadership is not significant. However, self-reported opinion leaders more effectively influence their strong ties. This study sheds light on indicators of opinion leadership and provides insights for managers to improve their social marketing campaigns.