Divergence indicators and the volatility smoothness in semi-fixed exchange rate regimes

Divergence Indicators and the Volatility Smoothness in Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes. —Fixed or semi-fixed exchange rate regimes have volatility paths that are in general less smooth than their free floating counterpart. Moreover, there tends to be a correlation between the lack of smoothness and the weakness of the currency. In this article, the effects of divergence from central parity on the smoothness of the volatility are discussed within the framework of a TGARCH model. It is shown that, for various EMS rates, the divergence indicator has a statistically significant effect on the smoothness of the volatility path.     

Debt contracts and collapse as competition phenomena

We study financial intermediation in which sufficient sorting is impossible. We identify a new type of market failure that may occur even when returns of investing entrepreneurs are verifiable. Moreover, we suggest that the nature of competition determines the contracts banks offer. A monopoly bank will offer equity contracts. In any pure strategy equilibrium when lenders compete à la Bertrand, however, only debt contracts are offered.     

Autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in equations describing the demand for money during rapid inflations

Estimating econometric equations with linear autoregressive error terms is standard if the covariance matrix of these error terms are homoskedastic. However, if heteroskedasticity prevails, this heteroskedasticity should be taken into account in order to obtain efficient estimates. In this paper, the well-known maximum-likelihood estimation method due to Beach and MacKinnon (1978) is extended to the heteroskedastic case and then applied to equations describing the demand for money in advanced inflations. Since this method isnot a straightforward generalization of the Beach-MacKinnon procedure, it not necessarily leads to estimates which are to be preferred to those obtained under the assumption of homoskedasticity.     

On the existence of equilibrium in social systems with coordination

Social systems with coordination were introduced by Vind (1983) as a general model of economic institutions. The present paper gives a general existence theorem for equilibria in social systems with coordination extending Vind's result.     

UN economic conference in Africa

The 11th session of the UN Economic Commission for Africa and the second Ministerial Conference of that Organisation took place in Accra from February 19 to 23, 1973. The Commission—a regional organisation of the United Nations—has 41 independent African states as members.     

Images of economic conditions in West Germany

With data from a December 1982 survey determinants of attitudes on general and personal economic conditions in West Germany are investigated. Such attitudes are differentiated into perceptions, evaluations, and expectations. Objective private living conditions, social background variables, regional economic context, and partisan affiliations are introduced as explanatory variables. Stepwise regression analysis is applied to estimate recursive models for endogenous variables. Apart from sizeable interrelations among components of individuals' images of economic conditions the findings indicate that evaluations and expectations of the private economic situation are strongly affected by social background and personal living conditions, whereas partisan sympathies mainly influence expectations of future general economic development.     

Europe’s agricultural policy facing new alternatives

“If the right decisions are not now taken, the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community may collapse. The hour of truth has struck for agriculture.” So the Commissioner for Agriculture, Gundelach, in the spring of 1980 when appealing to the Members of the European Parliament “to support the Commission’s moderate proposals for price increases and the proposed measures for reducing the agricultural surpluses”¹. This scenario gives great topical value to findings set out in a publication, “Europe’s Agricultural Policy Facing New Alternatives”², of which we present here a summary. Its wellknown authors have tried to map out routes to a less contentious agricultural policy for the future.