Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents

Standard asset pricing models based on rational expectations and homogeneity have problems explaining the complex and volatile nature of financial markets. Recently, boundedly rational and heterogeneous agent models have been developed and simulated returns are found to exhibit various stylized facts, such as volatility clustering and fat tails. Here, we are interested in how well the proposed models can explain all the properties seen in real data, not just one or a few at a time. Hence, we do a proper estimation of some simple versions of such a model by the use of efficient method of moments and maximum likelihood and compare the results to real data and more traditional econometric models. We discover two main findings. First, the similarities with observed data found in earlier simulations rely crucially on a somewhat unrealistic modeling of the noise term. Second, when the stochastic is more properly introduced the models are still able to generate some stylized facts, but the fit is generally quite poor.     

Gestaltung der Abschlussprüferhaftung – Implikationen theoretischer Modelle

Business scandals such as Enron, WorldCom or Parmalat have sparked intense discussions on the quality of corporate governance as well as the trustworthiness of statutory auditors. It is therefore no surprise that regulators have issued a large number of new regulations concerning auditing. The civil liability of external auditors has not changed in Germany, but such changes have already been announced by the German government. An increase in the existing liability cap in cases of negligent misconduct and extended third-party liability are planned. As a consequence, the results of analytical research on this topic are highly relevant. This paper summarises and comments on prior analytical research, in particular its assumptions and results, and focuses on important elements for the design of a liability regime. To this end, the paper addresses the questions of joint–and-several vs. proportionate liability rules, negligent vs. strict liability regimes, the extent of third party liability, and limited vs. unlimited liability.     

Self-employment of immigrants and natives in Sweden – a multilevel analysis

Recent research suggests that self-employment among immigrants is due to a combination of multiple situational, cultural and institutional factors, all acting together. Using multilevel regression and unique data on the entire population of Sweden for the year 2007, this study attempts to quantify the relative importance for the self-employed of embeddedness in ethnic contexts (country of birth) and regional business and public regulatory frameworks (labour market areas). This information indicates whether the layers under consideration are valid constructs of the surroundings that influence individual self-employment. The results show that 10% (women) and 8% (men) of the total variation in individual differences in self-employment can be attributed to the country of birth. When labour market areas are included in the analyses, the share of the total variation increases to 14% for women and 12% for men. The results show that the ethnic context and the economic environment play a minor role in understanding individual differences in self-employment levels. The results can have important implications when planning interventions or other actions focusing on self-employment as public measures to promote self-employment often are based on geographic areas and ethnic contexts.     

Results-Oriented Trade Policy

We construct a model of economic policy determination by an executive who controls a domestic policy instrument and who can influence, but not completely control, the conduct of trade policy. The executive exploits a polictical linkage between the policies. These circumstances can motivate implementation of a results-oriented trade policy by the government of a trading partner. We analyze the implications of such a policy under alternative situations.     

Swedish Multinationals and Competition from High- and Low-Wage Locations

This study uses data on Swedish multinationals to estimate cross-elasticities of labor demand in different locations. With a vertical decomposition of the firm's activities, whether there is substitution or complementarity between employment in different parts of the firm will depend on whether wage changes lead to a relocation of activities or simply to changes in marginal costs and/or demand for inputs in other parts of the firms. It is found that there is some evidence of a substitutionary relationship between employment in the Swedish parts of the firms and employment in other high-income locations, but no evidence of substitution stemming from employment in low-income locations.     

Demographic determinants of incident experience and risk perception: do high-risk groups accurately perceive themselves as high-risk?

This paper analyzes demographic determinants of incident experience and risk perception, as well as the relationship between the two, for eight different risk domains. Analyses were conducted by merging the results of a Swedish population-based survey, which includes approximately 15,000 individuals, with demographic and socio-economic register data. Being male was associated with higher incident experience yet a lower risk perception for nearly all risk domains. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher incident experience for falls, and being a victim of violence but lower incident experience for road traffic accidents. Lower socioeconomic status was also associated with higher risk perception for falls. On aggregate, ranking the different domains, respondents’ risk perception was in almost perfect correspondence to the ranking of actual incident experience, with the exception that the risk of being a victim of violence is ranked higher than indicated by actual incident experience. On a demographic group level, men and highly educated respondents perceive their risks to be lower than what is expected considering their actual incident experience.     

Property Prices and Exposure to Multiple Noise Sources: Hedonic Regression with Road and Railway Noise

This study examines the effect of road and railway noise on property prices. It uses the hedonic regression technique on a Swedish data set that contains information about both road and railway noise for each property, and finds that road noise has a larger negative impact on the property prices than railway noise. This is in line with the evidence from the acoustical literature which has shown that individuals are more disturbed by road than railway noise, but contradicts recent results from a hedonic study on data of the United Kingdom.