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21.
Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper. 相似文献
22.
This paper studies a link between inflation and economic activity that is built on two hypotheses. First, firms mitigate informational frictions in financial markets by accumulating retained earnings over a period of time. Second, firms allocate earnings among three competing uses - dividends, current investment, and the accumulation of internal funds - and inflation directly distorts this allocation decision as well as the real value of accumulated internal funds. The model predicts that the level of inflation - both unanticipated and expected inflation - as well as the variability of inflation distort firms’ internal financing decisions, increases frictions in financial markets, reduces the level and efficiency of investment, and reduces aggregate output. The marginal effects of inflation are increasing in the inflation rate. 相似文献
23.
Henry van Egteren 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2002,21(2):107-133
Global warming is currently an important item on most nationalenvironmental agendas. In many countries, coal-fired electricity generatingstations represent an important source of greenhouse gases. We examinehow regulations to curb emissions affect public utility pricing regulationwhen regulators act non-cooperatively. We show that, when there is limitedinformation on fixed abatement costs, an environmental regulator prefersan emission tax over an output tax or a lump sum environmental tax. Thepublic utility regulator prefers the lump sum tax regime. 相似文献
24.
Fölster and Henrekson (European Economic Review 45 (2001), 1501-1520) argue that “...the more the econometric problems that are addressed, the more robust the relationship between government size and economic growth appears”. But in failing to control for simultaneity and in ignoring issues of sample-selection bias, the regressions reported by Fölster/Henrekson are flawed. Using theoretically valid instruments, we find that the estimated partial correlation between size of the public sector and economic growth is statistically insignificant and highly unstable across specifications. Moreover, since instruments are weak, all hypothesis tests are unreliable. We conclude that cross-country growth regressions are unlikely to come up with a reliable answer to the question of the growth effects of government spending and taxation. 相似文献
25.
The present paper develops the comparative static properties of a small open economy which produces both traded goods and nontraded goods, and is a price taker in the international market for productive capital. Assumptions of full employment, competitive markets, and international mobility of productive cap ital input capture a long run horizon. Comparative static results associated with the wage, labor, and the price of the nontraded good are independent of factor intensity, factor substitution, and demand for the nontraded good. A tax on the traded good and a capital subsidy together raise national income and the real wage. 相似文献
26.
Henry van Egteren 《European Economic Review》1996,40(9):1773-1797
In this paper, I present a monopoly screening model in which a firm holds private information on fixed abatement costs. Because of the nature of the optimal contracts, bunching is never optimal even with ‘n’ distinct types. A characterization of full and limited information solutions is offered and it is shown that the design standards alone determine the value of an information rent. The variable charge is completely free of any marginal information costs. This allows the variable charge to track marginal damages and thereby ensures that marginal social costs are covered. A fixed charge implements the optimal solution. 相似文献
27.
This article investigates the impact of campus bans on alcohol use and the price of alcohol on college students'drinking intensity. The impact of a campus ban on drinking appears to depend on the ability of students to substitute off-campus access to alcohol for on-campus access. Where few off-campus alternatives exist, campus bans reduce the odds that a student becomes a heavy drinker but have no impact on the odds of transitioning from abstainer to drinker. Where off-campus alternatives are more plentiful, campus bans are less effective. Increasing the price of alcohol appears to be equally effective at reducing the likelihood of drinking and heavy drinking. (JEL) 相似文献
28.
Satoru Kasahara Sergey Paltsev John Reilly Henry Jacoby A. Denny Ellerman 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2007,37(2):377-410
In 2003 Japan proposed a Climate Change Tax to reduce its CO2 emissions to the level required by the Kyoto Protocol. If implemented, the tax would be levied on fossil fuel use and the
revenue distributed to encourage the purchase of energy efficient equipment. Analysis using the MIT Emissions Prediction and
Policy Analysis (EPPA) model shows that this policy is unlikely to bring Japan into compliance with its Kyoto target unless
the subsidy encourages improvement in energy intensity well beyond Japan’s recent historical experience. Similar demand-management
programs in the US, where there has been extensive experience, have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be
to achieve energy efficiency goals of the proposal. The Tax proposal also calls for limits on international emission trading.
We find that this limit substantially affects costs of compliance. The welfare loss with full emissions trading is 1/6 that
when Japan meets its target though domestic actions only, the carbon price is lower, and there is a smaller loss of energy-intensive
exports. Japan can achieve substantial savings from emissions trading even under cases where, for example, the full amount
of the Russian allowance is not available in international markets. 相似文献
29.
Guanxi is perceived as a major determinant for successful business in China. This research paper investigates the importance of Guanxi from the Hong Kong Businessmen's viewpoint. It confirms previous findings in this area and adds on new dimensions. Therefore, practitioners and academics may further refine their knowledge in this subject.Leung, T. K. P. is an Assistant Professor of Hong Kong Polytechnic University. He specializes in industrial marketing and marketing in China. His current research interests include issues in Guanxi, networking in China, and Chinese negotiation. He has published in referred journals related to the PRC market.Wong, Y. H. is an Assistant Professor at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. He teaches courses in sales management and international marketing. His current research focuses on issues of relationship marketing and Guanxi model. His recent publications include articles in preferred journal and books.Wong, Syson was a lecturer of Hong Kong Polytechnic University and is now a business consultant. She specializes in quantitative methods and China business. Her current consultancy works include a big project in China. 相似文献
30.
Peter F. Colwell Henry J. Munneke 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2006,33(3):197-213
This paper examines the influence of bargaining power and property class on the prices of heterogeneous goods. Specifically,
it explores the impact of buyer and seller characteristics on the transaction prices of office properties. The empirical model
is based on the work of Harding, Rosenthal, and Sirmans (2003), which developed a method to distinguish between the impact of buyer and seller attributes on bargaining power and the choice
of otherwise unidentified price effects (i.e., property class) in the context of hedonic price models. The data set contains
information on transaction prices of office properties in Cook, DuPage, and Lake Counties, Illinois from 1995 to 1997. The
results reveal systematic differences in bargaining power and property class for certain groups of buyers and sellers contained
within the sample. 相似文献