Predicting within country household food expenditure variation using international cross-section estimates

International cross-section demand systems have not been tested on their ability to accurately predict within country consumption expenditures. This paper reports on such a validation exercise for the case of food budget share predictions across expenditure percentiles within Bangladesh.     

Competition for land in the global bioeconomy

The global land use implications of biofuel expansion have received considerable attention in the literature over the past decade. Model‐based estimates of the emissions from cropland expansion have been used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuel policies. And integrated assessment models have estimated the potential for biofuels to contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement over the coming century. All of these studies feature, explicitly or implicitly, competition between biofuel feed stocks and other land uses. However, the economic mechanisms governing this competition, as well as the contribution of biofuels to global land use change, have not received the close scrutiny that they deserve. The purpose of this article is to offer a deeper look at these factors. We begin with a comparative static analysis which assesses the impact of exogenously specified forecasts of biofuel expansion over the period: 2006–2035. Global land use change is decomposed according to the three key margins of economic response: extensive supply, intensive supply, and demand. Under the International Energy Agency's “New Policies” scenario, biofuels account for nearly one‐fifth of global land use change over the 2006–2035 period. The article also offers a comparative dynamic analysis which determines the optimal path for first and second generation biofuels over the course of the entire 21st century. In the absence of GHG regulation, the welfare‐maximizing path for global land use, in the face of 3% annual growth in oil prices, allocates 225 Mha to biofuel feed stocks by 2100, with the associated biofuels accounting for about 30% of global liquid fuel consumption. This area expansion is somewhat diminished by expected climate change impacts on agriculture, while it is significantly increased by an aggressive GHG emissions target and by advances in conversion efficiency of second generation biofuels.     

Economic and environmental analysis of buffer zones as an instrument to reduce ammonia loads to nature areas

In this paper, we present a Danish case study of the effectiveness and costs of protecting nitrogen poor nature areas vulnerable to ammonia eutrophication by appointing buffer zones around them. Buffer zones are found to be an important step towards sustainable co-existence of intensive livestock production and nature conservation when local sources are important contributors to eutrophication. Depending on the deposition patterns, buffer zones may be cost-effective compared to re-establishment of eutrophicated locations, but a need for further model analysis is also identified.     

Sollte der Bankensektor stärker reguliert werden?

Nachdem die Immobilienkrise in den USA auch Deutschland erreicht und die IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG sowie die s?chsische Landesbank Sachsen LB in Schwierigkeiten gebracht hat, werden Forderungen laut, die Banken st?rker zu regulieren. Was sind die Ursachen für die Schwierigkeiten der deutschen Banken? Hat die Bankenaufsicht Fehler gemacht? Sollte sie reformiert werden? Ist eine Vereinheitlichung der Bankenaufsicht auf der EU-Ebene erforderlich?     

Estimation of International Demand Behaviour for Use with Input-Output Based Data

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross- country data on consumer expenditures from two different sources: the International Comparison Programme (ICP), and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The two data sets are found to produce results that are quite consistent despite their differing origins, and the fact that the former is based on consumer goods that embody wholesale/retail margins, while margin demands are treated separately in GTAP. Given the similarity of the results, the estimation based on GTAP data is favoured for economy-wide projection purposes because it can be readily matched to input-output based production and trade data. An additional benefit of the GTAP-based estimates is that they provide direct evidence concerning how aggregate margin expenditures vary with per capita income.     

Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international,cross section data

This paper assesses the ability of five structural demand systems to predict demands when estimated with cross sectional data spanning countries with widely varying per capita expenditure levels. Results indicate demand systems with less restrictive income responses are superior to demand systems with more restrictive income effects. Among the least restrictive demand systems considered, An Implicitly, Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS) and Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) seem roughly tied for best, while the Quadratic Expenditure System (QES) is a close second. Given differences in the characteristics of AIDADS and QUAIDS, it is concluded the former is better suited to instances where income exhibits wide variation and the latter to cases when prices exhibit considerable variation. First Version Received: November 2000/Final Version Received: February 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors acknowledge the insightful comments of two journal referees and Baldev Raj. Bettina Aten kindly provided the data used in this study. Any errors or omissions remain the responsibility of the authors. Partial financial support of the United States Department of Agriculture – National Research Initiative Grant #97-35400-4752 and the Purdue Research Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. An expanded version of this paper is available from the authors upon request. RID="**" ID="**"  Contact author     

Second-Best Linkages and the Gains from Global Reform of Manufactures Trade

The Uruguay Round's built-in agenda for future WTO negotiations omitted further liberalization in manufactures, yet this paper shows that there are large potential gains to be had from such tariff cuts, especially in the developing countries. In order to fully estimate the benefits of adding industrial products to a future multilateral trade round, we need to take into account the levels of protection in other sectors—most notably agriculture and services—in which many trade flows are highly distorted. This paper examines the nature of the second-best linkages among sectors using a balance-of-trade function approach. The importance of these linkages is evaluated using a numerical general equilibrium model. It is found that, in most cases, the second-best spillovers do not greatly affect the results, implying that the estimated gains from manufacturing reforms will be largely independent of their sequencing. However, in a few regions, most notably the EU, the second-best effects play a significant role.     

Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda

This paper summarises the findings from a major international research project on the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda. It draws on an intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement and associated scenarios. The implications for world markets are established using a global modelling framework, the outputs of which form the basis for a dozen country case studies of the national poverty impacts of the DDA scenarios. Liberalisation targets under the DDA have to be quite ambitious if the round is to have a measurable impact on poverty. We expect the near‐term poverty impacts to be mixed; some countries experience small poverty increases and others more substantial poverty declines. On balance, poverty is reduced under the core DDA scenario, and this reduction is more pronounced in the longer run. Deeper cuts in developing country tariffs are found to make the DDA more poverty friendly. It is also clear that, in order to generate significant poverty reductions in the near term, complementary domestic reforms are required to enable households to take advantage of the new market opportunities. Over the long run, sustained poverty reduction depends on stimulating economic growth, which suggests that trade reforms must go beyond tariffs and subsidies, also addressing barriers to services trade and investment.     

Why Do the Gains from Trade Reform Vary Between Countries?

This paper assesses, both theoretically and empirically, the determinants of differential gains from trade policy reform across countries. The theoretical model shows that asymmetrical features of the world economy, including the relative size of the differentiated products sector in each country, the dominance of domestic markets by indigenous producers, trade costs, and the relative importance of exports, all play an important role. Results from a multi-region computable general equilibrium model substantiate the proposition that the initial pattern of asymmetry is relatively more important than scale and varietal effects, despite the fact that the latter have received more attention in the literature.     

Front load costing — produktkosten-management auf basis unvollkommener information

Proaktives Produktkostenmanagement setzt in der Konzeptphase der Produktentwicklung an, denn dort besteht noch ein hoher Gestaltungsspielraum. Frühzeitige Konzeptbewertungen werden dadurch erschwert, da? viele technische Randbedingungen und wirtschaftliche Parameter nicht oder nur vage bekannt sind. Durch die systematische Nutzung unvollkommener Information lassen sich Erkenntnisprozesse zeitlich nach vorne verlagern. Ziel der Methodik Front Load Costing (FLC) ist die frühzeitige Bewertung technischer Systeme zur Entscheidungsunterstützung im Spannungsfeld zwischen Zahlungsbereitschaft und Zielkosten. Durch den graphischen Modellierungsansatz wird das Arbeiten in interdisziplin?ren Teams unterstützt.