Unemployment and the replacement ratio: Some reduced form estimates for the UK

Conventional estimates of the effects of the replacement ratio on unemployment treat output as exogenous. A reduced form approach is proposed which avoids this and results in a much reduced elasticity of unemployment with respect to the replacement ratio.     

On the measurement of risk aversion from experimental data

Attitudes towards risk are measured for households in Northern Zambia using an experimental gambling approach with real payoffs that at maximum were equal to 30% of average total annual income per capita. The results of the experiment show decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing partial risk aversion. Determinants of risk aversion are investigated using random effects interval regression model exploiting the panel data structure of the repeated experiments. Wealth indicator variables are found to be significant, and partial relative risk aversion decreases as wealth increases. Females are found to be more risk averse than males.     

The changing economic status of U.S. disabled men: Trends and their determinants, 1982–1991

We track the level of economic well-being of the population of men who began receiving Social Security Disability Insurance benefits in 1980–81 from the time just after they became beneficiaries (in 1982) to 1991. We present measures of the economic well-being of disabled individuals and their nondisabled peers as indicators of the relative economic position of these two groups. These measures also provide an intertemporal comparison of well-being and hardship as disabled persons and their nondisabled peers age and retire. We first show several economic well-being indicators for new male recipients of disability benefits in 1982 and 1991. We then compare their economic position to that of a matched group of nondisabled males with sufficient work histories to have been disability-insured. Because labor market changes over this decade have led to a relative deterioration in the position of younger and less-educated workers, we compare men with disabilities to those without disabilities and distinguish different age and educational levels within the groups. We conclude by assessing the antipoverty effectiveness of Social Security income support for both younger and older male SSDI recipients. First version received: May 1998/final version received: July 1999     

The nature of tournaments

This paper characterizes the optimal way for a principal to structure a rank-order tournament in a moral hazard setting (as in Lazear and Rosen in J Polit Econ 89:841?C864, 1981). We find that it is often optimal to give rewards to top performers that are smaller in magnitude than corresponding punishments to poor performers. The paper identifies four reasons why the principal might prefer to give larger rewards than punishments: (1) R is small relative to P (where R is risk aversion and P is absolute prudence); (2) the distribution of shocks to output is asymmetric and the asymmetry takes a particular form; (3) the principal faces a limited liability constraint; and (4) there is agent heterogeneity of a particular form.     

The growth of exports and manufacturing in South Africa from 1947 to 1987

This paper establishes the direction of causality between export growth and manufacturing output growth in the period 1947 to 1987. Total exports and manufacturing output demonstrated bidirectional causality for the entire period, yet from 1947 to 1970 there was found to be no relationship between them. A test for the direction of causality between merchandise exports and manufacturing output found that causation ran from manufacturing output to exports from 1947 to 1970. In the period 1968 to 1987, bidirectional causation was established between merchandise exports and manufacturing output     

ENDOGENOUS PROTECTION IN A TRADE LIBERALIZING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

This article aims to establish the changes that occurred in the institutional structures governing trade policy in South Africa during the period 1990–1998. It also examines the forces that influenced the application of tariff policy by the major tariff-setting bodies by applying various theories of endogenous protection to their decisions. Using firm-level data on applications made to the Board on Tariffs and Trade, the study finds that when estimating a probit model, employment considerations rather than capital invested influenced the board's decisions to grant protection. In addition, the board is found to have granted protection even in the face of tariff lines having been bound under the Uruguay Round. The article argues that this should not be interpreted as a reversal of the trade liberalization but rather as an attempt by the board to cushion firms from the acceleration in the tariff rationalization process that occurred after the GATT offer. Finally, it is suggested that the board's response to changes in import penetration ratios between industries that were considered organized provides prima facie evidence of the superior lobbying ability of such industries.