Trading patterns in the European carbon market: The role of trading intensity and OTC transactions

This paper examines the effect of trading intensity and OTC transactions on expected market conditions in the early development period of the European Carbon futures market. Past duration and trading intensity are used as information related order flow variables in modelling time between transactions in two new specifications of Autocorrelation Conditional Duration (ACD) models. This allows for specific investigation of non-linear asymmetric effects on expected duration and the impact of OTC transactions. Evidence is presented of two main types of trading episodes of increased and decreased trading intensity. Both have a significant impact on price volatility, which increases further if an OTC transaction intrudes. OTC transactions also play a dual role. They slow down trading activity in the short term (over the next five transactions) but increase it substantially in the long term (over ten transactions). Both the liquidity and information price impact components increase following an OTC trade, but the information impact is greater. Price volatility calms down faster than liquidity effects following an OTC trade, and this is more pronounced in ECX and in Phase II. The combined evidence points towards increased market depth, efficiency and maturity of the trading environment.     

The formation of trust and commitment in business relationships in the Middle East: Understanding Et-Moone relationships

In recent years, different forms of relationships that are culturally bond have emerged such as; ‘Guanxi’ in China (Liu et al., 2008, Luo, 2007, Yau et al., 2000), ‘Blat’ in Russia (Michailova & Worm, 2003) and ‘Boon Koon’ in Thailand (Pimpa, 2008). While these special forms of relationships are culturally bond, studies have also suggested that the development of a business relationship is directly linked to the development of trust and commitment (Wilson, 1995). Considering that these forms are culturally bond, studies from the Middle East on the formation of trust and commitment within relationship development are largely absent. We argue that understanding the dynamic formation of trust and commitment will help to better understand Et-Moone business relationships within the specific cultural context of the Middle East. Thus, this study combines the insights from the theory of life-cycle (Dwyer et al., 1987, Ford, 1980) and the theory of trust and commitment by Morgan and Hunt (1994) to understand business relationships in the Middle East. Based on qualitative research using a longitudinal approach and 33 semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted in 2003, this study finds the relationship between trust and commitment to be far more dynamic and changeable as the relationship evolves. Also, it finds that trust and commitment are major factors in establishing Et-Moone relationships.     

Perceptions and outlook on intercropping coffee with banana as an opportunity for smallholder coffee farmers in Uganda

Coffee and banana are important cash and food crops in Uganda and the surrounding East African highland region. Production is dominated by smallholders that have limited arable land and often coffee and banana are intercropped. No significant research and development efforts have been undertaken over the last few decades on this coffee/banana intercropping system. Because recent studies suggest that this system could be a practice with high benefits to the farmers, we decided to study the perceptions of stakeholders along the coffee value chain starting with farmers. Perception analysis based on open-ended interviews following interview guides revealed that a major limitation for the sustainability of this system was poor soil fertility conditions. Perceptions on the benefits of intercropping differed little among coffee actors; that is, banana intercropping provides additional food and income from smallholders’ limited land and helps farmers reduce risks related to drought, pest/disease attacks and coffee price volatility. However, farmers’ desire to minimize risks does not match the objective of stakeholders higher up the coffee value chain to maximize coffee production. Furthermore, research by public institutes, both national and international, is primarily organized for single crops and not systems. We conclude that the institutional setting of the coffee sector hampers the promotion of intercropping, despite the benefits for the farmer.     

Cost consequence analysis of use of a balloon expandable vascular access system and standard vascular sheath for transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Abstract

Background: Vascular complications are an important complication of transcatheter aortic valve implantation and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as cost. The Solopath device is an expandable vascular access system that has previously been shown to be associated with lower rates of vascular complications. This study sought to evaluate the impact of the use of this system on vascular complications and costs in a decision model analysis.

Methods: A cost-consequence analysis was undertaken utilizing event rate data from the PARTNER trials and a published retrospective analysis of the Solopath device. The decision model estimated costs and benefits in a hypothetical cohort of patients with aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI using either a standard sheath or Solopath. The modeled analysis compared the occurrence of vascular complications and mortality at 30 days and 1 year using TreeAge Pro.

Results: The decision model demonstrated that use of the Solopath sheath resulted in 36 fewer major vascular complications, three fewer deaths at 30 days, and five fewer deaths at 1 year, resulting in a discounted cost savings of $846 CDN. Results were sensitive to decreasing rates of vascular complications with newer generation devices, however maintained modest cost-savings.

Conclusions: Reduction in vascular complications is an important part of improving care for TAVI patients. The Solopath vascular access device offers an alternative to standard sheaths with a potential reduction in complications and cost-savings.     

Deconstructing the meerkat: fabular anthropomorphism,popular culture,and the market

Abstract

In this paper we attempt to create an understanding of fabular anthropomorphism of particular relevance to marketing communication. Through an examination of the religious, anthropological, rhetorical and marketing literature on personification and anthropomorphism we arrive at six principles that characterise the use of animals as symbols in instructional storytelling. We then examine the applicability of these principles by investigating the way in which meerkats have recently been used in popular culture and marketing communication. We find that our proposed definition of a marketing-orientated fabular anthropomorphism is broadly applicable and is helpful in understanding why certain anthropomorphic depictions will resonate with audiences and others will not.

Summary statement of contribution This research proposes a set of principles that help us to understand the way in which fabular instantiations of anthropomorphism can be successfully used in marketing communication. It presents a case study that demonstrates the applicability of the findings.     

Detecting multiple breaks in time series covariance structure: a non-parametric approach based on the evolutionary spectral density

This article estimates the number of breaks and their locations in the covariance structure of a series based on the evolutionary spectral density and uses some standard information criteria. The adopted approach is non-parametric and does not privilege a priori any modelling of the series. One carries out a Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical illustration using the daily return series of exchange rate euro/US dollar to support the relevance of the theory and to produce additional insights. The simulation results are globally adequate and show that the criteria having heavy penalty are more accurate in the selection of the number of breaks. The empirical results indicate that the covariance structure of the return series considerably varies between 30 March 2000 and 6 April 2001. The unconditional volatility appears non-constant over this interval.     

Tail dependence and diversification benefits in emerging market stocks: an extreme value theory approach

This article examines tail dependence, the benefits of diversification and the relation between the two for emerging stock markets. We find most emerging equity markets are independent in limiting joint extremes. However, the dependence in finite levels of extremes is still much stronger than the dependence implied by multivariate normality. Therefore, simple correlation analysis can lead to gross underestimation of the chances of joint crashes in multiple markets. Assuming risk-averse investors guarding against extreme losses, diversification benefits are measured for each two-country optimal portfolio by the reduction in quantile risk measures such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall relative to an undiversified portfolio. It is shown that tail dependence measures developed from multivariate extreme value theory are negatively related to diversification benefits and more importantly can explain diversification benefits better than the correlation coefficient at the most extreme quantiles.     

The accuracy of interest rate forecasts in the Asia-Pacific region: opportunities for portfolio management

We analysed interest rate forecasts from Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. We assessed 532 forecast time series with a total of 85,264 individual interest rate forecasts. To do so, we carried out a comparison to naïve forecasts and investigated the forecast time series for topically orientated trend adjustments. In addition, we deployed the sign accuracy test and the unbiasedness test. The results are very sobering in part: 95.9% of all forecast time series are characterized by the phenomenon of topically orientated trend adjustments, and 99.4% of all forecast time series proved to be biased. Only a small proportion of the forecast time series (3.6%) reflected the future interest rate trend significantly more precisely than a naïve forecast. However, at the same time some of the results of the study are surprisingly positive. The sign accuracy test revealed that 48.3% of all forecast time series predict the interest rate trend significantly better than a random walk forecast.     

Cluster Dynamics: Corporate Strategy, Industry Evolution and Technology Trajectories - A Case Study of the East Midlands Aerospace Cluster

High-technology clusters have attracted the attention of researchers and policy-makers but studies have focused primarily on the computer, electronics and biotechnology industries; aerospace has attracted less attention. An example of a high-technology cluster based on aerospace is to be found in the East Midlands region of the UK. This paper analyses this cluster. The analysis focuses on the structure of the cluster and the implications of this structure for cluster dynamics. The impact of factors such as corporate strategy, industry evolution and technological trajectories on cluster development are analysed. Finally, the implications of cluster structure for economic development policy in the region are evaluated.     

Corporate debt and financial balance sheet adjustment: a comparison of the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany

The level of UK corporate debt directly affects financial stability in the United Kingdom because a significant amount of the exposure of the UK financial system is to UK corporates. Our paper provides a comparison of the determinants of corporate debt in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The comparison serves to benchmark our findings about the determinants of UK corporate debt. In addition, the UK financial sector is significantly exposed to the corporate sectors in the United States, Germany and France. The model assesses the contribution of investment, acquisitions, cash flows and market-to-book values to the determination of debt, and also the tendency of debt to revert to its optimum level. Debt was found to be positively related to the financing needs of the firm, and the optimum level of debt to be negatively related to the market-to-book ratio. This casts some light on the procyclicality of debt.