Participant‐focused analysis: explanatory power of the classic psychometric paradigm in risk perception

Typical psychometric paradigm factors appear to have greater explanatory power for individual participants than previously envisaged. It is possible to acquire interpretable information about single participants using two factors (catastrophic potential and social and personal exposure) from aggregated participant‐focused data. Our results suggest that the classical psychometric model originated by Fischhoff and Slovic in the early 1980s to explain differences among hazards may also be capable of accounting for differences among participants. While socio‐demographic conditions on their own do not have substantial explanatory power, they are statistically significant and appear to dictate the position of participants within the factor space obtained using a participant‐focused analysis. One of the principal criticisms of the psychometric paradigm has been its lack of interpretability when using disaggregated data, but incorporating socio‐demographic variables overcomes this limitation.     

Symmetric ignorance: The cost of anonymous lemons

Rules that restrict information required in negotiated private transactions have spurred a vast increase in the scope of anonymous financial markets, particularly in the United States. The subtle costs of the information-restricting rules raise questions about the social value of “completing” anonymous markets that would not naturally survive and did not historically exist.     

The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies

Optimal stabilization policy is countercyclical, aiming at keeping output close to its potential. However it has been traditionally argued that emerging countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. Here we argue that the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies depend critically on policy credibility. We test this proposition by making use of recent panel data for eleven emerging market economies and time series data for Chile. The evidence supports that countries with higher credibility, as reflected by lower country risk levels, are able to conduct countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. For Chile we find that both monetary and fiscal policies have been largely countercyclical after 1993. JEL no. E43, E52, E62     

Prediction accuracy and sloppiness of log-periodic functions

We show that log-periodic power-law (LPPL) functions are intrinsically very hard to fit to time series. This comes from their sloppiness, the squared residuals depending very much on some combinations of parameters and very little on other ones. The time of singularity that is supposed to give an estimate of the day of the crash belongs to the latter category. We discuss in detail why and how the fitting procedure must take into account the sloppy nature of this kind of model. We then test the reliability of LPPLs on synthetic AR(1) data replicating the Hang Seng 1987 crash and show that even this case is borderline regarding the predictability of the divergence time. We finally argue that current methods used to estimate a probabilistic time window for the divergence time are likely to be over-optimistic.     

A Lévy HJM multiple-curve model with application to CVA computation

We consider the problem of valuation of interest rate derivatives in the post-crisis set-up. We develop a multiple-curve model, set in the HJM framework and driven by a Lévy process. We proceed with joint calibration to OTM swaptions and co-terminal ATM swaptions of different tenors, the calibration to OTM swaptions guaranteeing that the model correctly captures volatility smile effects and the calibration to co-terminal ATM swaptions ensuring an appropriate term structure of the volatility in the model. To account for counterparty risk and funding issues, we use the calibrated multiple-curve model as an underlying model for CVA computation. We follow a reduced-form methodology through which the problem of pricing the counterparty risk and funding costs can be reduced to a pre-default Markovian BSDE, or an equivalent semi-linear PDE. As an illustration, we study the case of a basis swap and a related swaption, for which we compute the counterparty risk and funding adjustments.     

Further empirical evidence on block transactions below the MBR: the Spanish market

There is a relatively unknown market for partial control or corporate influence in Spanish listed firms, where the control transaction size is below the legal threshold that triggers a mandatory tender offer, as this kind of deal looks for exercising some degree of control, but not a full control. The goal of this paper is to go further in its empirical analysis by exploring its distinguishing features, using as the criterion to define its transactions obtaining a seat in the board of directors. We find that these deals are mainly located in the segment of the market of large trades where the rules for private negotiations are easier to implement; the size of the block is relatively large and it is negotiated as a whole block. Besides, the most common buyer has no previous stake in the firm. We find no evidence that the buyers pay, in median, for a seat on the board of directors, but the variability of the premiums for those blocks is higher and shows that buyers that had no control position in the target firm pay more for being among largest shareholders (partial control) and less for not being among them (influence).     

Regroupements d'entreprises et IFRS: le cas de GlobeCom Corporation et Synthetics Inc.

This case addresses the accounting for mergers and acquisitions in Canada. Since January 1, 2011, any new transactions from mergers and acquisitions made by a public company must be recorded in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). In the case of a partial acquisitions, two theoretical approaches to accounting is allowed under IFRS 3: the approach of a separate entity and the modified approach of the parent entity. For mergers and acquisitions that occurred before this date, firms could either be early adopters to IFRS or firms could apply the Canadian standards that were allowed at the time of reunification. Under Canadian GAAP (CICA, Chap. 1581), partial acquisitions are accounted for using the approach of the parent entity. Canadian public companies that have chosen to recognize their business combinations which occurred before January 1, 2011, according to the approach of the parent entity, may continue to do so even after the enforcement of IFRS. Thus for years to come, we can see in the financial statements of various Canadian public companies business combinations presented in three different ways: according to the separate entity approach, the parent entity approach and, the modified approach of the parent entity. We also include in the case the U.S. GAAP for mergers and acquisitions. In this case, we strongly draw on an acquisition that actually happened, which we adapted to illustrate the three theoretical approaches to account for mergers and acquisitions. In particular, we have changed the name of the company.     

Statistical analysis of financial time series under the assumption of local stationarity

The aim of this paper is to apply a nonparametric methodology developed by Donoho et al(2003 IEEE Trans. Signal Processing 53614–27) for estimating an autocovariance sequence to the statistical analysis of the return of securities and discuss the advantages offered by this approach over other existing methods such as fixed-window-length segmentation procedures. Theoretical properties of adaptivity of this estimation method have been proved for a specific class of time series, namely the class of locally stationary processes, with an autocovariance structure which varies slowly over time in most cases but might exhibit abrupt changes of regime. This method is based on an algorithm that selects empirically from the data the tiling of the time–frequency plane which exposes best in the least-squares sense the underlying second-order time-varying structure of the time series, and so may properly describe the time-inhomogeneous variations of speculative prices. The applications we consider here mainly concern the analysis of structural changes occurring in stock market returns, VaR estimation and the comparison between the variation structure of stock index returns in developed markets and in developing markets.     

National corporate governance institutions and post‐acquisition target reorganization

We examine the characteristics of national systems of corporate governance to theorize about the nature of the shareholders' and employees' interests when it comes to reorganization, under the assumption that the firm is coalitional in nature. We argue that corporate governance institutions prevalent in both the host and the target country of the merging firms enable or constrain the ability of the acquirer to reorganize the target. Using a cross‐national dataset of corporate acquisitions and post‐acquisition reorganization, we found support for our predictions that stronger legal protection of shareholder rights in the acquirer country compared to the target country increases the acquirer's ability to restructure the target's assets and leverage the target's resources, while the protection of employee rights in the target country restricts the acquirer's ability to restructure the target's assets and redeploy resources to and from the target. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Bank Credit on Employment Formality: Evidence from Uruguay

This article examines the effect of bank credit on employment formalization in Uruguay. Using a difference-in-differences methodology the article finds that financial deepening decreases informality, especially in more financially dependent sectors. In addition, the effect is found to be greater among women and older workers. In the period under analysis the economy underwent a severe economic crisis and bank credit contracted sharply, but we find no evidence that the effect of bank credit on employment formality changed over time.