How Do the Asian Economies Compete With Japan in the US Market? Is China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach

We apply a trilateral trade approach to examine how Japanese exports and investment to China, or seven other Asian economies, affect Chinese, or the seven Asian economies', exports to the US market. The results suggest that while Chinese and Japanese exports are directly competitive in US markets, Chinese exports to the US are supported partly by Japanese exports to China. The positive correlation between Japanese exports to China and Chinese exports to the US is explained by vertical trade between Japanese multinationals and their affiliates in China. Indonesian and Philippine exports are also competing with Japanese exports in US markets, though the extent of the competition is much higher for China than for these countries.     

Exporting and Upgrading of Product Portfolio: Evidence from Korea,Japan and Indonesia*

This paper examines the effect of exporting on ‘product portfolio upgrading’ in a plant, using plant–product matched datasets for Korea, Japan and Indonesia. First, we find that a substantial part of aggregate shipments growth is explained by net adding of products for all three countries. Second, export starters are more likely to add products and to change product shares in plants than never exporters. Third, added products tend to have higher product quality than dropped products. Therefore, our results imply that the entry to export markets plays an important role in product portfolio upgrading: the process of reallocation from lower‐attribute to higher‐attribute products.     

碳贸易价格风险变动趋势与我国CDM发展策略

本文构建并拟合了包含分布转换的Markov-GARCH模型,计算了基于该模型的风险价值(VaR),对国际碳贸易市场价格风险变动趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明:碳贸易市场价格在均值、方差、峰度、波动聚集性以及分布形式方面都具有机制转换的特性;欧盟推出的EU ETS改革措施将促使未来碳贸易市场价格波动风险进一步降低。我国应当适时提高CDM合同最低限价;减少向CDM合同国际买方支付的风险溢价;暂停上马HFC-23和N2O分解类项目;加快国内碳贸易和碳金融市场的发展,争夺国际碳贸易市场定价权。     

The time-series properties of the risk premium in the Yen/Dollar exchange market

In this paper a VAR model is employed to construct a measure of the conditional expectations of the future yen/dollar spot rate. This measure allows us to examine the dynamics of an ex-ante time-series for the risk premium in the market. The VAR model produces ‘better’ forecasts than the survey responses for turbulent periods such as 1981–1982 and 1984–1985. The VAR-generated expectations are then used to construct a risk premium time-series. This risk premium series seems to be more reliable than the ones obtained using either survey data on expectations of the future spot exchange rate or the ex-post realized spot exchange rate. Tests on the risk premium series suggest that a risk premium was present, but that it was virtually constant throughout the sample. The conditional variance of the risk premium changed over time, but its unconditional distribution seemed stable across subsamples. Despite these features, the volatility of the series was substantial and varied considerably throughout the sample.