Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

On the human aspects in structural modeling

This article deals with two facets of structural modeling often ignored: a) the several human roles that effective participative modeling must encompass, and b) the group procedures developed to assist modelers in defining the elements of the system to be modeled. The roles are 1) the method technician, 2) the facilitator, and 3) the participant. Their recognition on the part of the technology assessment leader is vital to the successful conduct of participative modeling. The element-generating group procedures surveyed here are organized into two categories: those which emphasize an atmosphere for free-wheeling thinking, and those which emphasize structured guidance (either through use of words or geometric and analytic techniques).     

Interpretive structural modeling—A useful tool for technology assessment?

Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is a computer based technique for helping small groups develop graphical representations of complex systems. In this paper, the rationale for the use of Interpretative Structural Modeling in activities such as technology assessment is developed and the basic concepts underlying the technique are explored. Several applications of ISM are described and from these experiences some observations are made about the nature and effectiveness of the ISM process and product. ISM was found to provide its users with a systematic and comprehensive method for integrating group judgments in the development of “first-cut‘ structural models. At the same time, however, the technique was found to be relatively inflexible and may, in some instances, inhibit group processes. Possible directions for the development of less rigid methods are suggested.     

Preferences and the labour supply of married women

The paper reports the main results of using British cross-section data to estimate a labour supply function in which preference variables are interacted with terms measuring the slope and position of the budget constraint.     

Bridges over contested terrain: Exploring the radical account of the employment relationship

Richard Edwards' account of the transformation of the employment relationship in the twentieth century is used as a vehicle for integrating the radical analysis into the more conventional treatment. Most non-radical analyses rely on idiosyncratic skills to explain the existence of job security and other features of the modern employment relationship. Here an alternative explanation is proposed and some of its implications are explored.     

Über die Existenz einer stetigen,reellenNutzenfunktion

Ohne ZusammenfassungHerrn Prof. J. Nitsche (Freiburg) danke ich für die kritische Durchsicht einer ersten Fassung des Manuskriptes, ebenso danke ich Prof. Robert Reichardt (Wien) für einige kritische Anmerkungen. Für mögliche Fehler bleibe ich jedoch allein verantwortlich.