Savings and the Budget

The fall in the personal sector savings ratio to a record low last year has been a major factor behind the rapid growth of domestic demand in the past two years and the associated deterioration in the current account. It is also a major uncertainty in the Chancellor's Budget judgement. Existing econometric relationships for the consumption function have failed to predict the fall in personal savings over the past few years. Possible explanations include statistical error, the effects of financial deregulation, the housing boom, expectations of higher growth in incomes, and demographic influences. In this Viewpoint, we report on a new consumption function that successfully explains the decline in savings. It provides evidence of a major demographic influence resulting from the decline in the proportion of the population in the 45–64 age cohort, the main savers in society. Subsidiary effects arise from the boom in house prices, and statistical mis-measurement. The equation predicts an appreciable revival of savings over the next few years as the 45–64 age cohort grows again. These shifts in demographic structure reflect the after-effects of the Second World War. This new evidence suggests that the Chancellor has done quite enough to ensure a slowdown in consumption, and that he would be ill-advised to heed calls for special measures to boost savings. By contrast, well conceived tax changes that remove microeconomic distortions in the tax system (perhaps moving in the direction of an expenditure tax) would improve the tax structure, and may well increase the scope for tax cuts in future budgets. Our new consumption function also lends weight to the Chancellor's argument that the current account deficit is not a source of concern, insofar as it arises from a shift in savings associated with demographic changes that will be reversed in due course.     

Did owner‐occupation lead to smaller families for interwar working‐class households?1

This article examines the links between working‐class home ownership and family limitation in interwar Britain. Purchasing a suburban house enabled families to buy into a new, aspirational model of working‐class respectability. Embracing this model entailed increased accommodation costs and higher levels of conspicuous consumption, placing great strains on many household budgets. Owner‐occupiers therefore sought to limit the size of their families in order to sustain their new lifestyles. Meanwhile the new suburban ideology strongly emphasized improved standards of childcare, based around creating a high‐quality domestic environment, and thus directly encouraged families to aim for fewer, but better‐resourced children.     

Is the Phillips Curve A Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia

The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short-run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear specification. The paper also discusses the policy implications of convexity in the Phillips curve. These include the need for policy to be forward looking and to act pre-emptively. Convexity provides a strong rationale for stabilization policy, and it reinforces the need for policy makers to proceed cautiously. It also implies that deep recessions may have only a marginally greater disinflationary impact than shallower ones, unless they induce large credibility bonuses.     

Auditors' legal liability,collusion with management,and investors' loss*

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to model the legal exposure of auditors and to study the extent to which limitations on this exposure affect auditors' chosen audit intensity and collusion with management. Résumé. L'article qui suit a pour but de modéliser les risques auxquels sont exposés les vérificateurs de par la loi et de voir dans quelle mesure les limites de ce risque influent sur l'intensité de la vérification dont décident les vérificateurs et sur la collusion avec la direction.     

INVESTMENT AND GROWTH: PART 1: THE MAIN CONCEPTS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

‘Change is not made without inconvenience, even from worseto better.’(Richard Hooker, quoted by Samuel Johnson inthe Preface to the English Dictionary.)     

The Effect of Demographic,Economic, and Nutrition Factors on the Frequency of Food Away from Home

Food away from home, especially fast food, is often cited as contributing to obesity and other nutritional problems. This negative publicity can affect demand. Models explaining visits to table service and fast food restaurants are estimated, with nutrition variables added to standard demographic measures. Demographic effects are similar to those in past studies. Nutrition factors have little impact on table service, but nutrition‐orientated consumers tend to have lower fast food consumption.     

Prices Paid in Grocery Markets: Searching Across Stores and Brands

Using a large sample of prices paid for 21 homogeneous grocery products available in several brands in each of 16 markets, we simulate the search behavior of a consumer following different shopping strategies using as many as four supermarkets. We find that price search can lead to substantial savings. Brand switching can generate savings at least as large as visiting multiple stores to find the lowest price for a single brand. Buying a private label is usually a better way to save than any amount of search for low prices on national brands. A case study in a small metropolitan area grocery market yields results substantially the same as the simulation results.     

Review Essay

What Do We Produce in the “Knowledge Factory”and for Whom? A Review Essay of The Knowledge Factory by Stanley Aronowitz