Predicting bankruptcy in the Texas nursing facility industry

Approximately 50% of nursing facilities in Texas petitioned for bankruptcy during the 1998–2004 period. Using a logit regression model tested for robustness, we find nursing facilities that are profit-seekers, chain members, pay higher than average wage rates, accept more intensive-care residents and obtain a larger than average portion of their funding from public sources are highly vulnerable to negative changes in regulatory policy decisions on Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement. Larger facilities having higher than average occupancy rates and quality of care are less susceptible to adverse decisions. The model correctly classifies a facility as either bankrupt or solvent in about 75% of cases. We also examine the duration of bankruptcy using accelerated failure-time models. It appears that the duration of bankruptcy depends on location, out-of-state ownership, length of ownership, volume of resident days supplied, total cost and proportion of revenues from Medicaid.     

Rational plunging and the option value of sequential investment: The case of petroleum exploration

The potential to invest sequentially in related assets creates a tradeoff between diversification and concentration. Loading a portfolio with correlated assets has the potential to inflate variance, but also creates information spillovers and real options that may augment total return and mitigate variance. We examine this tradeoff in the context of petroleum exploration. Using a simple model of geological dependence, we show that the value of learning options creates incentives for investors to plunge into dependence; i.e., to assemble portfolios of highly correlated exploration prospects. Risk-neutral and risk-averse investors are distinguished not by the plunging phenomenon, but by the threshold level of dependence that triggers such behavior. Aversion to risk does not imply aversion to dependence. Indeed the potential to plunge should be larger for risk-averse investors than for risk-neutral investors. We test the empirical validity of our theory by examining bidding activity in petroleum lease sales. We find significant plunging behavior across a broad sample of oil companies. We also find that privately-held firms pursue even more concentrated (less diversified) prospect portfolios than publicly-held firms—which we attribute to risk aversion rather than size.     

WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING?

This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary policy regime per se as distinct from other shocks. For this purpose, we estimate a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the classical Gold Standard era. We use this model to conduct a counterfactual experiment to assess whether a monetary policy conducted on the basis of a Taylor rule characterizing the Great Moderation data would have led to different outcomes for macroeconomic volatility and welfare in the Gold Standard era. The counterfactual Taylor rule significantly reduces inflation volatility, but at the cost of higher real‐money and interest‐rate volatility. Output volatility is very similar. The end result is no welfare improvement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A number‐of‐modes reference rule for density estimation under multimodality

We consider kernel density estimation for univariate distributions. The question of interest is as follows: given that the data analyst has some background knowledge on the modality of the data (for instance, ‘data of this type are usually bimodal’), what is the adequate bandwidth to choose? We answer this question by extending Silverman's idea of ‘normal‐reference’ to that of ‘reference to a Gaussian mixture’. The concept is illustrated in the light of real data examples.     

The Impact of Mandatory IFRS Adoption on Equity Valuation of Accounting Numbers for Security Investors in the EU

Motivated by the European Union (EU) decision to mandate application of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to the consolidated financial statements of all EU listed firms (Regulation (EC) 1606/2002), starting in December 2005, we compare the value relevance of accounting information in 14 European countries in the year prior to and the year of the mandatory adoption of the IFRS. We focus on three accounting information items for which measurements under IFRS are likely to differ considerably from measurements under domestic accounting practices across the EU countries prior to the introduction of the international standards: goodwill, research and development expenses (R&D), and asset revaluation. These three items, selected on an a priori basis, have been shown in previous research to differ in the effect of uncertainty on their future benefits. We use valuation models that include these three variables and in addition the book value of equity and earnings. Overall, our study suggests that the adoption of the IFRS has increased the value relevance of the three accounting numbers for investors in equity securities in the EU. Association tests support our two hypotheses: (1) in the year prior to the mandatory adoption of the IFRS, the incremental value relevance to investors of the three domestic GAAP-based accounting items was greater in countries where the respective domestic standards were more compatible with the IFRS; and (2) the higher the deviation of the three domestic GAAP-based accounting items from their corresponding IFRS values, the greater the incremental value relevance to investors from the switch to IFRS. These associations prevail when considering cross-country differences in the institutional environments, which tend to provide complementary effects.     

Sector choices for public service delivery The transaction cost implications of executive turnover

The question of whether private firms should contract out for products and services or provide them internally (i.e. become more vertically integrated) has been a topic that has concerned scholars for many years. This article argues that the transaction costs in local contracting choices are linked to the characteristics of political systems that influence political and administrative uncertainty. Our analysis examines the transaction costs that result from executive turnover. Specifically, we are concerned with how uncertainty resulting from turnover in leadership positions in city government affects the ability of a municipality to negotiate contracts, make credible commitments to suppliers and faithfully uphold and enforce contracts once they are in force. We find that manager turnover reduces the likelihood of contracting with private sector providers. Mayor turnover has the opposite effect increasing contracting with both government and for-profit providers.     

Tensions in local government employment relationships

Abstract

A wide variety of initiatives characterized under the umbrella term of new public management have been introduced over the past two decades to improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness in the public sector. The implications of these initiatives for public sector employment relationships have been the subject of on-going debate. This article contributes to this debate through examining how employees within local authorities are managed in a time of personal crisis with a particular focus on long-term sickness absence in the context of increased management drives for efficiency under the NPM agenda. The findings reveal that for managers in two local authorities that form the focus of this study there is a tension in struggling to achieve a workable balance between the needs of employees and wider operational requirements, resulting in role ambiguity for line managers and detrimental effects for vulnerable public service workers.     

Towards A Better Understanding of Public Service Motivation and Mission Valence in Public Agencies

Abstract

Research has not fully considered how public service motivation (PSM) and mission valence may work together to influence job satisfaction, extra-role behaviours, and turnover intentions. As a result, a causal model was developed and tested on local, state, and federal government employees in the United States. The results indicate that PSM had a direct effect on mission valence and extra-role behaviours. They also revealed that mission valence fully mediated the relationship between PSM and job satisfaction and partially mediated the relationship between PSM and extra-role behaviours. On the other hand, mission valence did not mediate the relationship between PSM and turnover intentions. These findings are thoroughly discussed in this article.     

Institutional-based antecedents and performance outcomes of internal and external green supply chain management practices

Green supply chain management (GSCM) has been a developing topic for at least a couple of decades. Over this time, significant complexities have been observed in its management. Helping to simplify and understand these complexities is necessary from both a practical and research perspective. Given this situation and to further enhance understanding of the topic and even supply chain management in general, this paper develops and empirically tests a theoretical model on the different types of institutional pressures motivating manufacturing enterprises to pursue green supply chain management (GSCM) practices and commensurate performance outcomes. Using a sample of 396 Chinese manufacturers, path analysis is used to evaluate the many structural links. The statistic results show that institutional pressures have driven the manufacturer adoption of internal GSCM practices which in turn relate to their external GSCM practices adoption. The statistic results also suggest that GSCM practices do not directly affect economic performance, but can improve it indirectly. This research contributes to the literature on institutional theory in corporate environmental practices. The research findings provide useful insights for managers seeking to adopt GSCM practices. The results also provide policy insights for professional organizations, regulators, and legislators to further promote GSCM.     

An investigation of cultural cohesion in a community bank

This study examines the culture of a medium-sized community bank based in the Western United States. The study aims to identify the organization's culture and then measure the level of cultural cohesion that exists three years after a major cultural campaign was launched. The cultural characteristics the organization valued most highly were integrity, willingness to serve the customer and teamwork - all components of the official bank document on culture. Interestingly, the analysis uncovered some significant value differences among different employee groups and also employees and management; differences which can affect firm performance levels. The analysis also revealed that changing the culture in an organization does not necessarily lead to cultural cohesion.