Bounds for Ratios of Posterior Expectations: Applications in the Collective Risk Model

This paper considers the collective risk model for the insurance claims process. We will adopt a Bayesian point of view, where uncertainty concerning the specification of the prior distribution is a common question. The robust Bayesian approach uses a class of prior distributions which model uncertainty about the prior, instead of a single distribution. Relatively little research has dealt with robustness with respect to ratios of posterior expectations as occurs with the Esscher and Variance premium principles. Appropriate techniques are developed in this paper to solve this problem using the k -contamination class in the collective risk model.     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

Food shopping and town centre vitality: exploring the link

Retail decentralization is associated with town centre decline and a concern for revitalization. Using the case of Llanelli, South Wales, the effects of a new food superstore on shopping behaviours and opinions are explored. Surveys in 1997, 1999 and 2001 reveal a dramatic change in patterns of food shopping, but no real change for purchases of clothing or DIY goods. Disadvantaged consumers, the carless and the elderly, were already heavily reliant on town centre shops before the opening of the new superstore and changes in their shopping patterns were no different from other shoppers. The 'social' vitality of the town centre increased, as did shoppers' satisfaction with town centre shopping, but major spin-off shopping or 'economic' vitality has not yet occurred.     

Optimal regime switching and threshold effects

We consider a general control problem with two types of optimal regime switch. The first one concerns technological and/or institutional regimes indexed by a finite number of discrete parameter values, and the second features regimes relying on given threshold values for given state variables. We propose a general optimal control framework allowing to derive the first-order optimality conditions and in particular to characterize the geometry of the shadow prices at optimal switching times (if any). We apply this new optimal control material to address the problem of the optimal management of natural resources under ecological irreversibility, and with the possibility to switch to a backstop technology.     

Evolving China Strategies: How the Japanese Compare

Taking a sceptical view of the ‘Asian miracles’ proposition that government failure is the main culprit behind development failure, this article reviews the Philippine development experience. The Philippine configuration consists of a weak state carrying out industrial promotion and a large private sector whose dynamics depend heavily on state-managed privileges. In the final section, the article proposes an alternative to the rent-seeking model, in which rents defined as returns contingent on political position and rivalry over political position determine private investment behaviour. In such a society, there is limited internal basis for structural change and growth is accidental to external developments.     

High School Economics: Problems and Prospects

Asserting that the basic problem in high school economics is that we have not identified “what high school economics ought to be,” Warmke proceeds to spell out some of the specific obstacles hindering the development of more and better secondary level courses. He then discusses some of the more encouraging trends in research, teaching, teacher-training, materials development, and the like, and makes some cautious projections for the future.