Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006     

Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

MANAGING VENDOR INVENTORY IN A DUAL LEVEL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Collaborative arrangements among members of the supply chain have received a great deal of interest in recent years as a means of reducing costs. One such arrangement is vendor managed inventory (VMI). VMI allows the vendor to make decisions concerning the quantity and timing of deliveries to the retailer. Such an arrangement offers the potential of a more efficient supply chain by removing the negative effects of retail ordering policies. A thorough review of the literature was conducted to identify factors likely to impact the performance of a VMI partnership. Computer simulation was used to study the effects of these factors from both the vendor's and retailer's perspectives. The results lend insight into the performance of VMI and guidance for managers as to the environments in which VMI is most effective.     

Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.     

AN EVALUATION OF PROCESS‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORKS

Supply chain management (SCM) is implemented by integrating corporate functions using business processes within and across companies. Several process‐oriented frameworks for SCM have been proposed but only two of these provide sufficient detail to enable implementation. We evaluate the Supply‐Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework and The Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF) framework using four criteria and identify their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

The Contingent Value of Responsive and Proactive Market Orientations for New Product Program Performance*

While the benefits of being market oriented are largely accepted, a group of scholars and managers remain skeptical. Marketing scholars have sought to counter the criticisms leveled against market orientation (MO) by arguing that it has both responsive and proactive dimensions. However, few studies have empirically examined the complexity of the effects of these dimensions on firm performance. Drawing on theories of resource‐based advantage and organizational search behavior, this article advances understanding by arguing that responsive and proactive market orientations have curvilinear effects on product development performance, that their interaction may be positively related to product development performance, and that their effects on new product program performance are moderated differentially by the organizational implementation conditions and marketing function power. Survey results of 175 U.S. firms indicate support for most of the hypotheses. Specifically, whereas responsive MO has a U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance, proactive MO has an inverted U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance. Contrary to the arguments presented here, the interaction of both orientations is negatively related to new product program performance. This study finds that both orientations are needed; however, new product program performance is enhanced when one is at higher level and the other is at lower level. Finally, responsive MO is only positively related to new product program performance under specific conditions such as when strategic consensus among managers is high. On the other hand, the positive effect of proactive MO on new product program performance is further strengthened when learning orientation and marketing power are high. Overall, this study suggests that the effects of responsive and proactive MO on new product program performance are more complex than previously theoretically argued and empirically examined.     

The effects of influencer type,regulatory focus,and perceived authenticity on consumers' purchase intention

Companies often use influencers to promote their products, and many celebrities have expanded their activities on social media as influencers. In this work, we classified influencers into celebrity and noncelebrity groups and analyzed how they affect consumers' purchase intention. We also analyzed how psychological variables, such as regulatory focus and perceived authenticity affect this process. We conducted three studies with consumers in China, South Korea, and the United States who participated in each between-subjects experiment. The results showed that people have higher purchase intention for products recommended by noncelebrity influencers than those recommended by celebrity influencers. We also found that regulatory focus moderates the relationship between the influencer type and consumers' purchase intention. Purchase intention for products recommended by noncelebrity influencers were stronger among prevention-focused consumers. However, no significant difference in the effect of influencer type was found among promotion-focused consumers. We found that perceived authenticity mediated this moderating effect. The results of this study provide effective marketing strategies and implications for companies when they use influencers as a tool for marketing activities.     

Cross-national consumer research using structural topic modelling: Consumers' approach-avoidance behaviours

This study introduces structural topic modelling (STM), a sophisticated unsupervised machine-learning algorithm for text analysis, to compare Indonesian and Malaysian Muslim consumers' approach-avoidance behaviours toward Korean beauty products using social media data. The STM results revealed 16 topics for each country, including new common themes belonging to K-beauty culture and wannabe Korean skin. Intriguing differences were also observed between these countries. Korea-related constructs, such as Korea's image and wannabe Korean skin, were approach factors for only Indonesians. Korean cosmetic brand-specific topics were extracted for only Malaysians and were significantly associated with their behavioural responses. Unsuitable Korean beauty products and domestic product preferences were avoidance factors for Indonesians, but new product risks and conflicts between Muslim and Korean cultures for Malaysians. We demonstrate that STM is a helpful tool in cross-national research for corroborating and extending the existing theoretical frameworks. The practical implications are also provided for global marketers.     

Modelling the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System's Energy Consumption Under‐Coverage

The new data source for the Australian Energy Statistics, the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System, does not require businesses using less than 200 terajoules to report their energy consumption. This results in a data gap in the total industry energy consumption. To estimate the gap, this study models business energy consumption using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' 2008–09 Energy, Water and Environment Survey and data from the 2008 to 2009 business activity statement unit record estimates. The article discusses the modelling approaches and methodological issues associated with the estimation of the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System's energy consumption under‐coverage. It provides estimation results and suggestions for future research, based on available data.