FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINITE HORIZONS

In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a new‐Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in the presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers, but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more volatile investment and real money balances.     

Investment Horizon Effects

Abstract:   Boudry and Gray (2003) have documented that the optimal buy‐and‐hold demand for Australian stocks is not necessarily increasing in the investment horizon when returns are predictable. Such finding is in contrast with Barberis (2000) who shows that positive monotonic horizon effects predominate for US stocks. Using a closed‐form approximation to the asset allocation problem, this paper relates the return dynamics to the investor's portfolio choice for different investment horizons. In the special case of a single risky asset, it is shown that return predictability under stationarity may induce both positive and negative horizon effects in the optimal allocation to the risky asset. The paper extends previous empirical results by solving for the optimal portfolio when two risky assets with predictable returns are available for investment.     

The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies

We use a simple financial friction in an economy with high degree of liability dollarization - and currency mismatch - to show that the negative balance-sheet effect of an exchange rate depreciation may be observable only if the magnitude of the depreciation is large enough. This result justifies the difficulty to find strong empirical evidence for balance-sheet effects and suggests the convenience of including a “large depreciation” term in empirical analyses. We review some of the related empirical literature and provide some new evidence of this large depreciation effect.     

A dynamic approach to voluntary environmental contributions in tourism

In an evolutionary game-theoretical model of tourism firms that use an endogenous natural Common Pool Resource (CPR) we show that stable equilibria with voluntary environmental initiatives may coexist with other equilibria where voluntary abatement is absent. The basins of attraction of the equilibria are identified and a bifurcation analysis is carried out producing two results with policy implications. First, there is a highly non-linear relationship between the cost of abatement required to be green and the share of green firms. Second, increases in the number of the CPR's users will ultimately dissipate the incentives to make abatement beyond regulation.     

The evolution of the world trade web: a weighted-network analysis

This paper employs a weighted network approach to study the empirical properties of the web of trade relationships among world countries, and its evolution over time. We show that most countries are characterized by weak trade links; yet, there exists a group of countries featuring a large number of strong relationships, thus hinting to a core-periphery structure. Also, better-connected countries tend to trade with poorly-connected ones, but are also involved in highly-interconnected trade clusters. Furthermore, rich countries display more intense trade links and are more clustered. Finally, all network properties are remarkably stable across the years and do not depend on the weighting procedure.     

Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?

We examine the predictive power of term spreads as predictors of economic recessions in Europe and the US. Using a battery of methodologies that include endogenous changepoint detection we find that the predictive power of spread-type variables has changed significantly during the 1980s and 1990s: in the most advanced countries the domestic spread has lost its informative content in favor of international – US and German – spreads, whereas in less developed countries this informational content has appeared during the late 1980s. Given the theoretical arguments for the predictive power, these findings suggest that domestic monetary policy may have become less effective in the most developed countries of the sample.