CEO optimism and forced turnover

We show theoretically that optimism can lead a risk-averse Chief Executive Officer (CEO) to choose the first-best investment level that maximizes shareholder value. Optimism below (above) the interior optimum leads the CEO to underinvest (overinvest). Hence, if boards of directors act in the interests of shareholders, CEOs with relatively low or high optimism face a higher probability of forced turnover than moderately optimistic CEOs face. Using a large sample of turnovers, we find strong empirical support for this prediction. The results are consistent with the view that there is an interior optimum level of managerial optimism that maximizes firm value.     

State intervention for food price stabilisation in Africa: Can it work?

Although its arguments may have more general applicability, this paper discusses the desirability and options for the stabilisation of staple food prices principally in Eastern and Southern Africa. It addresses three broad questions: (i) why is stabilisation of food (grain) prices desirable? (ii) what is technically feasible? and (iii) can the governance and trade issues thrown up by suggested mechanisms be solved? It considers a number of options for price stabilisation, assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each and suggesting situations in which each may be appropriate.     

Replication and reality: or,the future of sociology

This article has been written to raise some questions about the practice of sociology in the past in order to be clearer about sociological practice in the future. Its object is to encourage some reflection on what sociologists do in order that sociology may have a securer future. More specifically the author is concerned with the theoretical implications of some of the methodological assumptions that sociologists make, and with the need for a better epistemological base for sociology as a predicting science.     

地缘政治关系与美元储备货币地位的未来

文章关注地缘政治如何影响美元储备货币作用的两个问题:首先,有多少美元外汇储备是由美国盟友持有?第二,地缘政治关系演变将对美元储备地位产生什么影响?文章认为,地缘政治对美元储备货币地位的威胁相对有限。     

Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of ‘random’ price changes

Using trades and quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delilcated interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean revrting limit orders that lead to sub-diffusion (or anti-persistence). We define and study a model where the price, at any instant, is the result of the impact of all past trades, mediated by a non-constant ‘propagator’ in time that describes the response of the market to a single trade. Within this model, the market is shown to be, in a precise sense, at a critical point, where the price is purely diffusive and the average response function almost constant. We find empirically, and discuss theoretically, a fluctuation-response relation. We also discuss the fraction of truly informed market orders, that correctly anticipate short-term moves, and find that it is quite small.     

Rationalizing Northern Ireland Hospital Services Towards Larger Providers: Best-Practice Efficiency Studies and Current Policy

This article explores the relative efficiency of Northern Ireland hospitals, and in particular the efficiency of small hospitals relative to their large counterparts, employing a technique called data envelopment analysis. The empirical analysis revealed that larger hospitals displayed higher cost efficiency, higher allocative efficiency and higher technical efficiency than their smaller counterparts. These results support Northern Ireland's recent strategy of concentrating hospital services in six large hospitals, supported by medium sized hospitals, and closing or restructuring smaller hospitals.     

Personal acquaintances and salespeople in financial services: Differences between customers and friends

The existence, benefit and management of customer–salesperson relationships in the marketing of financial services are topics of increasing interest. Much of the sales and marketing literature implies that because of time spent together, salespeople and some of their customers develop close relationships that are akin to friendships. Evidence from social psychology confirms that strong relationships are founded in deep knowledge of others gained over long periods after sharing personal information. This paper reports on the results of a study of salespeople's assessments of their personal acquaintance with customers and friends in a financial services setting. The results indicate that salespeople do not classify customers as friends on all the dimensions of personal acquaintance. Furthermore, the nature of personal acquaintance differs between ‘good’ customers (those salespeople enjoy serving), and ‘bad’ (those they do not), with the exception of the personal acquaintance dimensions of interaction frequency and personal disclosure. We discuss the implications for practice and make recommendations for future research.     

Information dynamics, dividend displacement, conservatism, and earnings measurement: a development of the Ohlson (1995) valuation framework

This paper extends the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11, 661–687, 1995) equity valuation framework by demonstrating that dividend displacement continues to hold when dividends have a positive forecast coefficient in the linear abnormal earnings dynamic. The analysis demonstrates that such a predictive role for dividends implies a positive association between cum div book value of equity and the present value of expected abnormal earnings, consistent with both dividend displacement and accounting conservatism. While a signaling role for dividends is ruled out, a link between dividends, expected performance, and equity value is, however, demonstrated. The paper also considers a linear information model where an undefined variable replaces realized abnormal comprehensive earnings as an indicator of future performance. The role of this variable as a predictor of future abnormal comprehensive earnings is highlighted and the special case where it corresponds to recurring abnormal earnings is considered. This latter case provides useful implications for implementation of asset revaluations.