Using Causal Mapping with Group Support Systems to Elicit an Understanding of Failure in Complex Projects: Some Implications for Organizational Research

This paper reflects upon the use of causal mapping supported by a Group Support System (GSS) in a particular legal setting. The mapping method and GSS tool was used for the forensic analysis of eight major engineering and construction projects where the contractor intended to claim significant compensation (typically in excess of $20m). Necessarily detailed records were kept of every aspect of the analyses and processes adopted. This paper is an examination and reflection upon analysis of these records, with particular attention to the process. The task of capturing the way in which participants (witnesses) in a project ‘make sense’ of a cost and time overrun is an important aspect of forensic analysis as they have an experience based perspective, that has often involved dealing with high levels of complexity as projects move from planned order through to what they describe as “absolute chaos”. In addition the requirement to account for, and be held responsible for, behaviors that that may in retrospect be seen as incompetent raises interesting issues in determining the validity of the data capture and analyses. Moreover, participants’ views regarding the complex causality of outcomes, reflected in the causal map, are tested through the use of a simulation model replicating the causal map. The implications of this approach as a research method for undertaking organizational research are thus considered by drawing upon experiences of using the approach to develop the case for litigation in several disruption and delay claims. In particular the paper addresses the issues related to defensiveness of participants, anonymity, accessing multiple perspectives in a group setting, organizational learning and the ‘changing of mind’ of participants, and developing an organizational memory.     

Time consistent export quotas in an oligopolistic world market

We investigate the strategic behavior between exporting countries that face endogenous terms of trade on the world market. In a non-cooperative setting, if production decisions occur before consumption decisions, the ex-ante optimal export quota is not time consistent as the ex-post elasticity of the residual foreign import demand curve is lower than the ex-ante elasticity. However, we show that the exporters’ inability to irrevocably commit to their quota may be welfare superior to the precommitment solution. If exporters can sell forward a proportion of their exports before production decisions are made, they will do so even though, in equilibrium, it may decrease welfare compared to a situation in which forward markets do not exist. Moreover, the equilibrium with forward markets is welfare inferior to the commitment equilibrium for exporters.     

The financial and prudential performance of Chinese banks and Fintech lenders in the era of digitalization

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The years 2013 to 2019 marked an explosion in Fintech in China. We analyze the financial and prudential performance of 40...     

The more the merrier? On the optimality of market size restrictions

Review of Economic Design - This paper provides a novel rationale for the regulation of market size when heterogeneous firms compete. A regulator seeks to maximize total welfare by choosing the...     

Enhancing claim classification with feature extraction from anomaly-detection-derived routine and peculiarity profiles

Usage-based insurance is becoming the new standard in vehicle insurance; it is therefore relevant to find efficient ways of using insureds' driving data. Applying anomaly detection (AD) to vehicles' trip summaries, we develop a method allowing to derive a “routine” and a “peculiarity” anomaly profile for each vehicle. To this end, AD algorithms are used to compute a routine and a peculiarity anomaly score for each trip a vehicle makes. The former measures the anomaly degree of the trip compared with the other trips made by the concerned vehicle, while the latter measures its anomaly degree compared with trips made by any vehicle. The resulting anomaly scores vectors are used as routine and peculiarity profiles. Features are then extracted from these profiles, for which we investigate the predictive power in the claim classification framework. Using real data, we find that features extracted from the vehicles' peculiarity profile improve the classification.     

Merger selection,evidence provision,and the timing of merger control

Merger control impacts the type of merger projects that are submitted, as well as the information provided by the merging parties upon assessment. In this paper, we consider the outcomes in terms of selection of merger types and evidence provision of alternative timings for merger review, pre- or postconsummation of the merger. We show that the selection effect induced by the ex post merger review is welfare-improving due to the deterrence of the most anticompetitive merger projects. In contrast, the welfare impact of evidence provision under ex post assessment is ambiguous. Balancing these two effects makes possible the welfare comparison between the ex ante and the ex post merger policy enforcement.