Competition in long-distance and telecommunications equipment markets: Effects of the MFJ

The Modification of Final Judgement (MJF) is now 10 years old. The MFJ was a historic change in US antitrust policy and in telecommunications policy. Pre-divestiture AT&T was divided into a single company, AT&T, which was allowed to compete in long-distance markets, telecommunications equipment markets and (with some delay) information service markets. Seven regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) were permitted to provide local service and nearby long-distance service. However, the BOCs were not permitted to enter the three markets reserved for AT&T. In 1991 the Information Services restriction was eliminated for the BOCs. However, the ban on provision of (interLATA) long distance and equipment remains. The policy experiment was quite interesting since no other nation has followed the USA, despite numerous other countries ending the formerly monopoly status of their telecommunications provider. In this paper I evaluate how competitive the remaining markets reserved for AT&T, and from which the BOCS are banned, have become. I conclude that (interLATA) long-distance market for residential and small business users, by far the largest fraction of users of long distance is currently uncompetitive. AT&Ts prices are constrained by FCC regulation, not by competition. AT&T has market power and is exercising market power. For equipment markets, I find a good deal more competition. However, I conclude that the BOCs could not impede competition in long distance and that removal of the MFJ restrictions would be pro-competitive. Thus, I conclude that removal of the MFJ estrictions on the BOCs would be pro-competitive, would increase economic efficiency, and would improve consumer welfare.     

A Poisson mixture model of discrete choice

In this paper, we introduce a new Poisson mixture model for count panel data where the underlying Poisson process intensity is determined endogenously by consumer latent utility maximization over a set of choice alternatives. This formulation accommodates the choice and count in a single random utility framework with desirable theoretical properties. Individual heterogeneity is introduced through a random coefficient scheme with a flexible semiparametric distribution. We deal with the analytical intractability of the resulting mixture by recasting the model as an embedding of infinite sequences of scaled moments of the mixing distribution, and newly derive their cumulant representations along with bounds on their rate of numerical convergence. We further develop an efficient recursive algorithm for fast evaluation of the model likelihood within a Bayesian Gibbs sampling scheme. We apply our model to a recent household panel of supermarket visit counts. We estimate the nonparametric density of three key variables of interest-price, driving distance, and their interaction-while controlling for a range of consumer demographic characteristics. We use this econometric framework to assess the opportunity cost of time and analyze the interaction between store choice, trip frequency, search intensity, and household and store characteristics. We also conduct a counterfactual welfare experiment and compute the compensating variation for a 10%-30% increase in Walmart prices.     

In Search of Theory Development in Grounded Investigations: Doctors' Experiences of Managing as an Example of Fitted and Prospective Theorizing

This article draws on a study of doctors’ experiences of clinical managing to highlight research conventions that limit the development and use of middle range theories in grounded studies. Using sensemaking and the psychological contract as example frameworks, we illustrate how customary deductive evaluations of middle range theories turn grounded researchers away from theory building. As a correction to these conventions, we offer an inductive approach to building existing theory in grounded investigations that does not depend solely on working with frameworks under different empirical conditions. We suggest that forward theorizing is most likely to progress from a synthesis of fitted explanation and prospective thinking that presses at the limits of the data's usefulness. To illustrate this approach, trialled thinking about novel theoretical juxtapositions and alternative sources was used in conjunction with our clinical director data. The value of this approach was supported in two ways. First, a number of fitted and prospective conjectures are offered about how social identity articulates with psychological contracts and sensemaking in role change situations. Second, new light is shed on the process by which particular social conditions differentially modify employees’ social categorizations, and how these inform employee responses to the evolving experience of role change. The article concludes with some tentative proposals for promoting more discussion of theory building in grounded investigations.     

Comparative Analysis of Thresholds of Non-Revolutionary Institutional Change: China and the United States in the 1980s

Ireland has experienced a series of interlocking banking, fiscal, unemployment, and political crises since 2007. We detail the challenges involved in modeling individual moments of the crisis through the lens of balance sheets and transactions matrices among sectors of the Irish society. We conclude with a series of recommendations for models of small open economies.     

Lebesgue measure and social choice trade-offs

Summary An Arrovian social choice rule is a social welfare function satisfying independence of irrelevant alternatives and transitivity of social preference. Assume a measurable outcome spaceX with its (Lebesgue) measure normalized to unity. For any Arrovian rule and any fractiont, either some individual dictates over a subset ofX of measuret or more, or at least a fraction 1–t of the pairs of distinct alternatives have their social ordering fixed independently of individual preferences. Also, for any positive integer (less than the total number of individuals), there is some subsetH of society consisting of all but persons such that the fraction of outcome pairs (x, y) that are social ranked without consulting the preferences of anyone inH, whenever no individual is indifferent betweenx andy, is at least 1–1/4.We are grateful to Roy Mathias and Daniel Waterman for help with some technical matters, and to chairman Jim Follain and the Syracuse University Economics Department for financing the exchange that launched this project. Campbell's research was funded by National Science Foundation grants, SES 9007953 and SES 9209039.     

Timeliness of Reporting and Earnings Information Transfers

This study examines earnings timeliness and its effect on earnings information transfers. Empirical analyses focus on a sample of approximately fifteen hundred earnings reports and nearly four thousand information transfers. The principal findings are: (1) earlier earnings releases yield negative information transfers, (2) earnings releases yield negative (nominal) information transfers to firms that previously (subsequently) release their earnings reports, and (3) earlier earnings releases yield negative information transfers to firms that have not yet disclosed earnings. These findings show that the timing of earnings reports has significant and far-reaching economic consequences.     

The Coastal Construction Control Line: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

This paper reports on a cost-benefit study of the Florida Coastal Construction Control Line (CCCL) in Martin County, Florida. The study compared the costs of implementing and maintaining the line with the value of the potential benefits resulting from (1) storm damage reduction and (2) increased open space. A systems model of development patterns was designed to project forward the historic development patterns along the beach which were compared with the patterns that have occurred subsequent to implementing the CCCL. The analysis showed the CCCL not to be cost effective in the area studied.