Market illiquidity and bounds on European option prices

The paper analyses the impact of illiquidity of a stock paying no dividends on the pricing of European options written on that stock. In particular, it is shown how illiquidity generates price bounds on an option on this stock, even in the absence of other imperfections, such as transaction costs and trading constraints, or the assumption of stochastic volatility. Moreover, price bounds are shown to be asymmetric with respect to the option price under perfect liquidity. This fact explains, under some conditions, the appearance of a smile effect when the implied volatility is estimated from the mid-quote.     

Changing Women's Lives: Child Care Policy in Ireland

Child care as a policy issue has been forced to the center of the national planning agenda in Ireland with the report of an expert working group on child care. As Ireland has broken into the ranks of wealthy Western economies, Irish women have joined the formal workforce in ever greater numbers, dramatically breaking the traditional ideology of women as childbearers and homemakers. However, women are now carrying the double burden of work that accompanies the lack of any state policy on child care. This article traces this recent history of the feminizing of the Irish workforce, amidst a fast-changing social context for family life, and the multiple problems confronting the expert working group of securing an adequate range of policies for the provision of child care in a country which has one of the lowest rates of formal state provision in the entire European Union.     

Technological change and industry structure: A case study of the petroleum industry

This paper is a case study of the impact of an exogenous improvement of a process technology on the structure of the petroleum industry. The paper examines the role of three-dimensional seismology in bringing about the 1990s oil industry consolidation. This proposition is examined in the context of evolutionary economics and in a non-cooperative game theory, concluding with a reference to Steindl's theory of industry dynamics. The significance of this contribution lies chiefly in highlighting the fact that exogenous technological change can, under appropriate conditions, play a significant role in industry dynamics. This reference to the exogenous change in technology is a departure from the traditional consideration of endogenity of industry structure in relation to technological development and, therefore, a novelty. Secondly, the documentation of 3D seismology as a significant process technology of the petroleum industry is significant.     

Hysteresis and sluggishness in Portuguese unemployment, 1977–88

The phenomenon of unemployment persistence led to the development of alternative theories of unemployment. Among these the ‘hysteresis’ concept by Blanchard and Summers (1987) received a wide interest. Based on this notion we developed a generalized model that nests Blanchards and Summers' theory. Using this framework we conducted an empirical investigation for the Portuguese labour market (1977–88). The results obtained point towards the existence of labour demand sluggishness, wage inertia and unemployment hysteresis. The model also suggests the existence of a rather inelastic labour demand curve.     

总编圈点

一个国家名牌出口商品的多少,反映这个国家综合实力的大小,经济竞争力的强弱,以及科学技术发展水平的高低。美国、日本、欧洲一些国家之所以商品出口强势历久不衰,就是由于它们在科学技术的有力支持下,长期以来培育出一大批叫得响、过得硬、受消费者欢迎的名牌商品,并且缘于这些商品而造就出众多赫赫有名、腰缠万贯的大公司、大企业。我国是个发展中国家,虽然改革开放20多年来经济大踏步前进,有了飞跃发展,但与西方经济强国相比,还有相当大的差距。然而,凡事预则立,不预则废。尤其我国入世后,要按照世贸组织的游戏规则开展对外经贸活动,与贸易伙伴     

American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy

A new characterization of the American-style option is proposed under a very general multifactor Markovian and diffusion framework. The efficiency of the proposed pricing solutions is shown to depend only on the use of a viable valuation method for the corresponding European-style option and for the transition density of the model’s state variables. Under a Gauss-Markov stochastic interest rates setup, these new American option pricing solutions are shown to offer a much better accuracy-efficiency trade-off than the approximations already available in the literature. This result is also used to price callable corporate bonds under an endogenous bankruptcy structural approach, by decomposing the option to call or default into a European put on the firm value plus two early exercise premium components.     

The Size of Terroir: A Theoretical Note on Economics and Politics of Geographical Indications

Geographical indications (GI) certify the geographical origins of a product and delineate the specific area in which the certified product must be produced. Despite a large literature on the economics of GIs, few papers have explored the question of the optimal size of GI regions. This note presents a flexible conceptual framework to explore the economics and politics of the delimitation of a GI. The general framework describes the efficiency and distributional effects of the size of a GI and shows how this affects interest groups’ incentives to influence government decision‐making.     

A multivariate Poisson mixture model for marketing applications

This paper describes a multivariate Poisson mixture model for clustering supermarket shoppers based on their purchase frequency in a set of product categories. The multivariate nature of the model accounts for cross-selling effects between the purchases made in different product categories. However, for computational reasons, most multivariate approaches limit the covariance structure by including just one common interaction term, or by not including any covariance at all. Although this reduces the number of parameters significantly, it is often too simplistic as typically multiple interactions exist on different levels. This paper proposes a theoretically more complete variance/covariance structure of the multivariate Poisson model, based on domain knowledge or preliminary statistical analysis of significant purchase interaction effects in the data. Consequently, the model does not contain more parameters than necessary, whilst still accounting for the existing covariance in the data. Practically, retail category managers can use the model to devise customized merchandising strategies.     

Concessionary lending to developing countries

International transfers to promote the development of countries in the Third World began at the end of the Second World War. At first they were in the form of grants, mostly to colonies or ex-colonies. Then official development assistance from most industrial countries to most developing countries was institutionalized as it became apparent that the international capital market was inadequate in size and too costly for very poor countries. This led to official international lending on increasingly ‘soft’ terms. The ‘softening’ was brought about in a long complex discussion among the lending governments mostly within the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Theoretical and practical considerations brought the argument substantially to an end in the late 1970s with the widespread acceptance of the principle that, after all, grants were preferable for the poorest of developing countries.