Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns

Motivated by the common problem of constructing predictive distributions for daily asset returns over horizons of one to several trading days, this article introduces a new model for time series. This model is a generalization of the Markov normal mixture model in which the mixture components are themselves normal mixtures, and it is a specific case of an artificial neural network model with two hidden layers. The article uses the model to construct predictive distributions of daily S&P 500 returns 1971–2005 and one‐year maturity bond returns 1987–2007. For these time series the model compares favorably with ARCH and stochastic volatility models. The article concludes by using the model to form predictive distributions of one‐ to ten‐day returns during volatile episodes for the S&P 500 and bond return series. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International mergers and acquisitions in the UK 1985-94: a comparison of national HRM practices

The paper investigates HRM practices adopted by companies from the USA, Japan, Germany and France in UK companies that they have acquired. UK/UK acquisitions are used as a control. The research is based on a survey instrument applied to 201 companies and interviews with forty. It notes that there is some convergence of HRM practices, in that, for example, all countries researched employ performance-related pay and increase the amount of training in their new subsidiaries. It finds, however, that there is a distinct difference in the HRM practices employed by companies from each of the countries, influenced by the characteristic HR practices common to companies in the country of origin of the parent.     

The evolution of post-Soviet labour processes: a case study of the hollowing out of paternalism in Moldova

During the Soviet era, directors and workers derived mutual benefits from concealing true capacity, hoarding labour and just fulfilling an enterprise's plan. In an environment of labour shortages and guaranteed markets, managers used informal mechanisms to reward and retain good workers given the absence of unemployment and meaningful wage differentials as mechanisms to discipline workers. This cultivated a paternalistic set of relations between enterprise managers and workers, which, it is argued, are being hollowed out in the post-communist era. This is explored in a case study of evolving labour relations in Moldova. Casualization of the workforce has been used as a buffer against greater instability in both the supply of raw materials and demand. Such a strategy has become feasible as enterprises, such as the case-study firm, now have a large pool of external surplus labour on which they can draw. However, paternalism has not been hollowed out completely but rather a split-level realignment is identified.     

New Methods for Forecasting Inflation,Applied to the US*

Models for the 12‐month‐ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain‐weighted consumer expenditure deflator, are estimated for 1974–98 and subsequent pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is examined. Alternative forecasting approaches for different information sets are compared with benchmark univariate autoregressive models, and substantial out‐performance is demonstrated including against Stock and Watson's unobserved components‐stochastic volatility model. Three key ingredients to the out‐performance are: including equilibrium correction component terms in relative prices; introducing nonlinearities to proxy state‐dependence in the inflation process and replacing the information criterion, commonly used in VARs to select lag length, with a ‘parsimonious longer lags’ parameterization. Forecast pooling or averaging also improves forecast performance.     

Globalization and trade union strategy: industrial restructuring and human resource management in the international civil aviation industry

For trade unions, the central problematic of globalization is the growing disparity between the mobility of capital and labour. The ability of capital to operate on a trans-national basis is widely perceived to have precipitated a process of cost cutting as international companies seek to cut workers' remuneration and other conditions of employment. However, systematic empirical evidence on the impact of globalization on human resource management is hard to find, as is any assessment of the differential impact of globalization on different occupational groups or the response of trade unions to any deterioration in their members' terms and conditions of employment. Focusing on the international civil aviation industry, we examine the effects of globalization on human resource management and the national and international strategies developed by organized labour in response. Although the evidence suggests that there is indeed a concerted effort by major airlines to cut costs, trade unions have been able to retard the pace of change and effectively defend the interests of some occupational groups. Moreover, the future course of globalization will be contested through new international strategies and repertoires of collective action developed by the trade union movement.     

The Effectiveness of Delhi's Fire Safety Regulation Amidst Poverty,Ignorance, Corruption and Non‐Compliance

This paper considers the effectiveness of fire safety regulation in Delhi, India. Ten theories are summarised that are used to explain why regulation does or does not work, or why fires might increase. Can imperfect markets generate institutions outside of the political process that produce reasonable results despite challenges of poverty, rising population density, social chaos, widespread corruption and non‐compliance with rules? In Delhi, city fire departments, albeit hampered by dysfunctional or non‐existent regulation, along with social and individual incentives provided by markets, have produced a relatively high level of safety.     

Human resource management in developing economies: a comparison of India and Thailand

This paper reports the results of surveys of firms that were conducted both in India and Thailand. The surveys centred on a wide range of human resource management practices (staffing, training, compensation and evaluation). The sample consisted of both the subsidiaries of multinational corporations and locally owned companies. Statistical analysis suggests pronounced differences in employment practices between India and Thailand in some areas, while considerable similarities in other areas. The study controls for a variety of organizational factors (e.g., firm size, ownership (foreign versus domestic), union status).     

Running on the spot? A review of twenty years of research on the management of human resources in comparative and international perspective

Research using a comparative and international perspective on the management of human resources is examined, drawing on articles published in leading human resource management, management/organizational behaviour and related social science journals between 1977 and 1997. In total a little under 2 per cent of the articles under review focused on the management of human resources in a comparative and international perspective. The largest group of these articles was comparative in nature (44 per cent), followed by those with an international perspective (35 per cent). A smaller number adopted a combined approach (17 per cent) and a few were separately classified as foreign national studies (4 per cent). Over time, there has been some progress made in terms of the number of articles published and the scope of topics covered. However, many of the articles displayed similar shortcomings to those noted in earlier reviews of cross-national management/organization studies: in particular, an over-reliance on a small number of primarily Anglo-Saxon countries, a lack of a longitudinal perspective, a loose specification of culture, an ethnocentric bias and a frequent failure to explain observed differences and similarities.     

Immediate trends in Internet reporting

The Internet is increasingly used by companies to disseminate financial information. However, the extent to which the use of this new medium will change corporate reporting practice has received surprisingly little debate in the published literature. To widen the participation in the debate, this paper posits that the future of Internet-based financial reporting is contingent on technological and non-technological factors. This proposition is evaluated using the opinions of the immediate trends in online reporting obtained from seventeen UK experts in accounting and/or the Internet who responded to an open-ended questionnaire. These experts were drawn from academics, auditors, regulators, reporting companies and users of corporate reports. While the experts concur on some issues, they provide a range of different views in other areas. Some views are technology-driven, whereas others pay more attention to non-technological factors such as resistance to technological change, users' reluctance to read financial reports and the slow reaction of regulators. Some experts foresee minimum changes in financial reporting over the short term, while others adopt a more progressive or even radical perspective. This paper has synthesized these views into nine major categories which provide information on the role of the Internet in financial reporting. The results have important implications for all parties involved in financial reporting and also indicate avenues for further research.     

Managerial Efficiency,Managerial Succession and Organizational Performance

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to create a measure of managerial efficiency in an attempt to reassess the conflicting theories concerning the impact of organizational performance on manager succession, and the counter-theories concerning the impact of manager succession on organizational performance. The analysis uses data for 147 college basketball teams from 1984 to 1991. The results indicate that winning, not efficiency, is the key criterion used in determining managerial retention. Yet when managers of losing teams are dismissed the teams tend to do even worse. If, however, the efficiency of the new manager is greater than that of the former, the disruptive effect of succession is minimized. Because administrators appear to focus on winning, not efficiency, they will often select new managers who are less efficient than departed managers. These results are unique to this literature and indicate promise for the use of DEA in analyses of the internal efficiencies of organizations. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.