International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.     

Driver behaviour and business outcomes: An alternative approach to the psychology of the owner–manager

Previous psychological approaches to the study of owner–managers are reviewed and an alternative model based on the transactional analysis concept of Drivers is put forward. This model is tested out via a series of interviews and observations of 20 owner–managers of small and medium–sized businesses based in the North East of England. The relationship between driver behaviour and business performance is explored and the negative consequences of driver behaviour for the business are identified. Driver behaviour is also viewed as potentially beneficial and the inherent positive aspects of driver behaviour are proposed as the opposite end of a continuum of behaviours which are at the heart of business success. On a methodological level the need for an approach grounded in the owner–managers behaviour is confirmed.     

The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the U.S. News & World Report “Best Colleges 2010” guide (U.S. News & World Report 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online course syllabi. About one-third of the schools require econometrics of all students majoring in economics, about half require it of none, and a sixth require it of some, but not all, economics majors. Among universities with economics PhD programs and liberal arts colleges, almost all those ranked in the top 10 require it. Below the top 10, there is little correlation between ranking and econometrics requirements. Liberal arts econometrics classes are much more likely to require research projects than their counterparts in universities.     

Labour Turnover in Hotels - Revisited

Five years have now elapsed since the author last conducted an empirical investigation into the prevailing rates of labour turnover in a small sample of hotels (Johnson 1980). One conclusion of this survey was that excessive labour turnover could only be resolved by action at unit level. The object of the study outlined in this article was to re-examine the turnover process at this level and to analyse any changes or developments that had taken place in the intervening years. This was to be achieved by repeating the earlier investigations and comparing the findings with those of the original. Unfortunately it proved impossible to use all the original hotels and consequently a similar, rather than identical, sample of units had to be used. In reconstructing the sample, attention was focused on large units. This was because the original work had shown that even relatively low levels of turnover in large hotels lead to considerable economic loss. The results of this latest survey highlight some important changes that have taken place in the last five years and illustrate a new type of turnover. More specifically, several factors are identified which are of value to those unit managers interested in predicting and thereby exercising greater control over their labour turnover.     

Allocative efficiency measurement with endogenous prices

In the nonparametric measurement of allocative efficiency, output prices are fixed. If prices are endogenous, the overall output in the market determines the allocative efficient point. We develop an alternative semi-nonparametric model that allows prices to be endogenously determined.     

The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.