An econometric model for ex ante prediction of wildfire suppression costs

This paper develops an econometric model that can provide predictions of fire suppression costs (per acre and in total) for a given large fire before final fire acreage is known. The model jointly estimates cost per acre and acreage equations via Maximum Likelihood, accounting for sample truncation based on final fire size. Formulas and results are shown for predictions of costs and fire size for wildfires in general, and for large fires in particular. Marginal effects of explanatory variables on cost and acreage are discussed. The distribution of these model predictions illustrates the importance of accounting for sample truncation when generating predicted outcomes based on ex ante information.     

Land Use and the Limits to (Regional) Governance: Some Lessons from Planning for Housing and Minerals in England

This paper examines the supposed shift from government to governance in the context of land-use planning in England and indicates some of the problems which surround increased regional autonomy in governmental systems. It is argued that decision-making processes around land use, especially when they concern conflicts between development and environmental protection, are not easily rendered into the flexible arrangements deemed characteristic of governance. Two case studies in the housing and minerals sectors – presented to illustrate this general argument – show the existence of strong ‘strategic lines’ which tend to subsume local representations and limit the formation of partnerships. In both cases, the strategic line comes dressed in the language of technical (numerical) forecasts and projections which raises problems for any local opposition to the thrust of the strategy. In conclusion it is argued that although some recasting of the planning regime in each sector is underway this has only served to highlight continuing problems in linking strategy and locality, especially in cases of conflict around land use, which regional governance may not easily alleviate. Cet article examine le prétendu changement du gouvernementà la gouvernance dans le contexte de la planification de l’utilisation du sol en Angleterre et montre certains des problèmes liés à la croissance de l’autonomie régionale dans les systèmes gouvernementaux. Les processus de décision concernant l’utilisation du sol, particulièrement quand ils concernent des conflits entre le développement et la protection de l’environnement, ne sont pas aisément résolus par les arrangements flexibles qui sont dits caractéristiques de la gouvernance. Deux cas d’étude dans les secteurs du logement et des mineraux – présentés afin d’illustrer l’argument général – montrent l’existence de fortes ‘strategic lines’ qui ont tendance à inclure les représentations locales et qui limitent la formation d’associations. Dans les deux cas, ‘the strategic line’ prend la forme des prévisions techniques (quantitative) et des projections, ce qui pose des problèmes pour toute opposition locale à la dynamique de la stratégie. En conclusion, bien que certains remaniements soient en cours dans le régime de planification de chaque secteur, ceci n’a servi qu’à souligner les problèmes continus des liens entre la stratégie et la localité, particulièrement en cas de conflit quant à l’utilisation du sol, que la gouvernance régionale risque de ne pas pouvoir résoudre facilement.     

On seeking first to understand

There are fundamental differences between seeking-to-solve and seeking-to-understand. We are strongly biased toward seeking-to-solve on a number of dimensions. As a result, we are increasingly at risk in a world that is becoming increasingly complex and fast paced. We therefore need to understand these biases so that we can defend ourselves -- we need to develop (moral) concepts and methods of inquiry that transcend our dominant and pervasive analytical presuppositions.     

Using Market Structure to Regulate a Vertically Integrated Monopolist

A natural monopolist whose cost is private information produces a good which is combined with another good that can be produced by the monopolist or by other firms. The agency that regulates the monopolist can impose any of several different market structures in the industry: integrated monopoly, vertical separation with free entry downstream, or liberalization downstream (both integrated and independent production). When several firms produce downstream, a Cournot quantity-setting game with free entry determines the market price. We derive the optimal contracts to offer the monopolist under all three market structures and examine the influence of downstream cost differences on access prices.We then study the optimal regulatory policy where the regulator can condition the downstream market structure on the monopolist's cost report to the regulator. The optimal regulatory policy awards a monopoly to a low-cost upstream firm, but requires free entry downstream if the monopolist reports high upstream costs. Thus, the choice of market structure is an additional tool to limit rent extraction by the monopolist. Simulation analysis reveals the possibility of significant welfare gains from this additional regulatory tool.     

Strategic Goals and Practices of Innovative Family Businesses

A profile of 231 Washington state family businesses is presented. This article focuses on the business strategies of these firms, analyzing the relationship between strategy, performance, and business practices. Firms categorized as Prospector firms reported more gains in their current market position than all other strategic types. These firms were more likely to value an effective management and employee team and to develop new quality products and services and career development plans for non-family employees. Implications for family businesses are discussed.     

The geography of output volatility

This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.     

The Effects of Market Network Heterogeneity on Innovation Diffusion: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach

Innovations usually have an initial impact on very few people. The period of learning or early evaluation precedes the diffusion of the technology into the wider addressed population. More than a transfer, this is best characterized as communication of benefits, costs, and compatibility with earlier technologies and a relative assessment of the new state of the art. Innovation development by an organization or individual creates not just a device (i.e., process or tacit knowledge) but concomitantly a capacity on the part of other organizations or persons to use, adopt, replicate, enhance, or modify the technology, skills, or knowledge for their own purposes. How innovations actually diffuse is to understand the communication of progress, and this framing helps one to design innovations and also design the marketing and testing programs to ready innovations for market and launch them efficiently. Diffusion theory's main focus is on the flow of information within a social system, such as via mass media and word‐of‐mouth communications. This theory presents often in the form of mathematical models of innovation and imitation. Distinct from classical diffusion models, however, consumers are not all identical in how they connect to others within a market or how they respond to information. We examine the effects of various network structures and relational heterogeneity on innovation diffusion within market networks. Specifically, network topology (the structure of how individuals in the market are connected) and the strength of communication links between innovator and follower market segments (a form of relational heterogeneity) are studied. Several research questions concerning network heterogeneity are addressed with an agent‐based modeling approach. The present study's findings are based on simulation results that show important effects of network structure on the diffusion process. The ability to speed diffusion varies significantly according to within‐ and cross‐segment communications within a heterogeneous network structure. The implications of the present approach for new product diffusion are discussed, and future research directions are suggested that may add useful insights into the complex social networks inherent to diffusion. A simple summary is that discovery of significant prime communicator nodes in a network allows innovation development practices to be better calibrated to realistically multiple market segments.