Manager-analyst conversations in earnings conference calls

Prior research finds that intraday stock prices move considerably during the discussion period of earnings conference calls. In this study, we explore what features of the manager-analyst dialogue during the discussion drive these price movements. We textually analyze the tone of managers and analysts and find that intraday prices react significantly to analyst tone, but not to management tone, for the full duration of the discussion. This effect strengthens when analyst tone is relatively negative. We then present intraday visual evidence that analysts are more neutral than managers over the call and that the tones of both parties drift downward as the call progresses. Overall, our findings illustrate how manager-analyst information exchanges evolve on earnings calls and indicate that analysts are the participants on earnings calls whose comments move stock prices during the discussion.     

Is momentum a self-fulfilling prophecy?

The author shows in a simple framework that momentum trading can exist in equilibrium and that momentum trading is profitable. A property of the model is that the relation between risk, reward, and the intensity of momentum trading provides a natural limit to the amount of momentum trading that will exist in equilibrium. Properties of the model fit the empirics well. First, the model captures in a parsimonious manner both short-term overreaction and long-term reversals. Second, it predicts that momentum and long-term reversals should be observed in any market where there is noise. Thus, the model gives theoretical support to the empirical evidence that these anomalies are not artifacts of data snooping and to the extant empirical evidence that these anomalies are pervasive. Momentum traders observe noise shocks and trade on it as information. This trading incorporates a predictive role to the noise. That is, if agents believe a past price change to be informative of future price changes and act on this belief, it will be true and trading on this belief will be profitable. Thus, momentum trading is a self-fulfilling action.     

The Question of Sustainability for Microfinance Institutions*

Microentrepreneurs have considerable difficulty accessing capital from mainstream financial institutions. One key reason is that the costs of information about the characteristics and risk levels of borrowers are high. Relationship‐based financing has been promoted as a potential solution to information asymmetry problems in the distribution of credit to small businesses. In this paper, we seek to better understand the implications for providers of “microfinance” in pursuing such a strategy. We discuss relationship‐based financing as practiced by microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the United States, analyze their lending process, and present a model for determining the break‐even price of a microcredit product. Comparing the model’s results with actual prices offered by existing institutions reveals that credit is generally being offered at a range of subsidized rates to microentrepreneurs. This means that MFIs have to raise additional resources from grants or other funds each year to sustain their operations as few are able to survive on the income generated from their lending and related operations. Such subsidization of credit has implications for the long‐term sustainability of institutions serving this market and can help explain why mainstream financial institutions have not directly funded microenterprises. We conclude with a discussion of the role of nonprofit organizations in small business credit markets, the impact of pricing on their potential sustainability and self‐sufficiency, and the implications for strategies to better structure the credit market for microbusinesses.     

The Innovation Imperative: An analysis of the ethics of the imperative to innovate in public sector service delivery

Innovating to improve public service is regarded as potentially obligatory, not merely laudable, part of good public management. However, the moral content of an obligation to innovate is not well understood. How can we innovate ethically? In academic bioethics and research ethics, the obligatory nature of the ‘research imperative’ is discussed and criticized. In this article, I outline the content of what I call the ‘innovation imperative’ and draw a parallel between the innovation imperative and the research imperative, arguing that the ethical principles that govern innovation in public service are similar to those governing research imperative in biomedical sciences.     

Communicating nutrition information at the point of purchase: An eye‐tracking study of shoppers at two grocery stores in the United States

Providing nutrition information at the point of purchase is one approach that can be used to help consumers adopt and maintain a healthy diet. Previous research has examined consumer self‐reported notice and use of the information as well as how the design of the information affects its attention and use in a laboratory environment using eye‐tracking methodology. This study advances the literature by applying eye‐tracking methodology to explore consumer visual and choice behavior in a real shopping environment, and by recognizing that nutrition information competes with other visual stimuli in the store and consumers are vulnerable to a “limited attention span” for nutrition information in a shopping setting. Data came from a cross‐sectional survey conducted in two grocery stores in the United States in July 2014 with a convenience sample of 60 grocery shoppers while they were selecting and buying items from one of three product categories (ready‐to‐eat cereal, snacks, and soup). The study finds that point‐of‐purchase nutrition information faced strong competition for participants’ attention from other visual elements in a real shopping environment and the attention is dominated by nonnutrition elements, particularly brand/product name, product imagery, and product pricing. Nutrition‐related information, on the other hand, received much less attention, with claims and front‐of‐package nutrition symbols seen by more participants than the Nutrition Facts label. The study suggests that to more effectively enable nutrition information to “catch the eyes” of shoppers at the point of purchase, increasing consumer exposure to the information and enhancing shopper education may merit further investigation.     

Using Conjoint Analysis to Help Design Product Platforms

This article illustrates how one can combine different conjoint analysis studies, each containing a core of common attributes, to help design product platforms that serve as the foundation for multiple derivative products. The illustration is based on actual, but disguised, data from a small company that makes electronic test equipment.
This article demonstrates that decisions that consider products individually are likely to be suboptimal and can be significantly different than those based on product platforms. Suboptimality can occur either when preferences for product features differ across markets or when a technology is more important to the overall company than it is to an individual product. Additionally, we show the importance of considering both fixed and variable costs when performing this type of analysis as sales, contribution, and profit-maximizing products are quite different. Finally, sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust with respect to assumptions about price sensitivity, fixed costs, and timing of entry. © 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.     

Lottery Incentives and Resource Management: Evidence from the Agricultural Data Reporting Incentive Program (AgDRIP)

Environmental and Resource Economics - To manage resources effectively in an agri-environmental context, policymakers need information about on-farm management practices and ecological conditions....     

From creating to confronting racial hierarchies: The evolving role of the US state in land policy

From systemically dispossessing Indigenous people of their territory for Euro-American settlement to routinely denying African American farmers operating loans in the 20th century, the US government's complicity in creating racial hierarchies in terms of land access is well documented. Less understood is how land policies oriented towards racial equity, namely, the Justice for Black Farmers Act (JBFA), and other initiatives that deal with land access as well as addressing racism more broadly, emerged during recent decades. In this article, we argue that such initiatives resulted from Black-led organizations and other farmer advocacy allies responding to neoliberal policy reforms. Concretely, even as these reforms destabilized farm economies, they also led to a decentralization of agricultural policy administration, which, in turn, created opportunities for community-based organizations to influence land governance. We make this argument after presenting a three-part periodization of the evolution of US land policy, starting with the emergence of racial hierarchies, then the period of partial reforms that began during the New Deal and, finally, the era of neoliberal reform.     

Sterling's farewell symphony: The end of the Sterling Area revisited

When and why did Sterling Area countries stop holding sterling as the majority of their foreign exchange reserves? This paper takes a comparative approach to examine the relative importance of various determinants of adherence to sterling in its declining years as an international currency. Using an original cross-national panel dataset covering the period 1965–79, we conduct survival analysis which systematically evaluates a comprehensive set of economic and political factors, at the country level as well as in international relations, about when and why countries chose to diversify their reserves away from sterling. Our results highlight the significance of international transactional factors in influencing adherence to sterling, while the effects of British geopolitical retrenchment, Commonwealth cultural ties, and distributional issues were more ambiguous and sensitive to local conditions. We also find that domestic political and historical factors, such as democracy and imperial legacy, played a role in sterling's international unravelling. Finally, we use our results to examine the experience of individual sterling countries and their decisions to diversify.