Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system

This paper presents a new methodology to build internal business scenarios from the data gathered by some key performance indicators (KPIs) defined within a performance measurement system. The application of the principal components analysis technique leads to the identification of latent relationships between KPIs that underlies some important business aspects. Further, this methodology allows to represent not only the temporal evolution of the organisation as a function of these business aspects but also the definition and determination of internal business scenarios, being therefore the source of meaningful managerial information. At the end of the paper, results of a practical application are presented and discussed, as well as their importance for the organisation from a decision making point of view.     

Stochastic Models of Implied Volatility Surfaces

We propose a market–based approach to the modelling of implied volatility, in which the implied volatility surface is directly used as the state variable to describe the joint evolution of market prices of options and their underlying asset. We model the evolution of an implied volatility surface by representing it as a randomly fluctuating surface driven by a finite number of orthogonal random factors. Our approach is based on a Karhunen–Loeve decomposition of the daily variations of implied volatilities obtained from market data on SP500 and DAX options.
We illustrate how this approach extends and improves the accuracy of the well–known 'sticky moneyness' rule used by option traders for updating implied volatilities. Our approach gives a justification for the use of 'Vegas' for measuring volatility risk and provides a decomposition of volatility risk as a sum of independent contributions from empirically identifiable factors.
(J.E.L.: G130, C14, C31).     

Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts

The credit risk capital requirements within the current Basel II Accord are based on the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) approach. The asset correlation parameter, defined as an obligor's sensitivity to the ASRF, is a key driver within this approach, and its average values for different types of obligors are to be set by regulators. Specifically, for commercial real estate (CRE) lending, the average asset correlations are to be determined using formulas for either income-producing real estate or high-volatility commercial real estate. In this paper, the value of this parameter was empirically examined using portfolios of U.S. publicly-traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a proxy for CRE lending more generally. CRE lending as a whole was found to have the same calibrated average asset correlation as corporate lending, providing support for the recent U.S. regulatory decision to treat these two lending categories similarly for regulatory capital purposes. However, the calibrated values for CRE categories, such as multi-family residential or office lending, varied in important ways. The comparison of calibrated and regulatory values of the average asset correlations for these categories suggests that the current regulatory formulas generate parameter values that may be too high in most cases.     

Hyperbolic Efficiency and Parametric Distance Functions: With Application to Spanish Savings Banks

Distance functions are gaining relevance as alternative representations of production technologies, with growing numbers of empirical applications being made in the productivity and efficiency field. Distance functions were initially defined on the input or output production possibility sets by Shephard (1953, 1970) and extended to a graph representation of the technology by Färe, Grosskopf and Lovell (1985) through their graph hyperbolic distance function. Since then, different techniques such as non parametric-DEA and parametric-SFA have been used to calculate these distance functions. However, in the latter case we know of no study in which the restriction to input or output orientation has been relaxed. What we propose is to overcome such restrictiveness on dimensionality by defining and estimating a parametric hyperbolic distance function which simultaneously allows for the maximum equiproportionate expansion of outputs and reduction of inputs. In particular, we introduce a translog hyperbolic specification that complies with the conventional properties that the hyperbolic distance function satisfies. Finally, to illustrate its applicability in efficiency analysis we implement it using a data set of Spanish savings banks.     

Insurance with Frequency Trading: A Dynamic Analysis of Efficient Insurance Markets

This paper extends existing insurance results on the type of insurance contracts needed for insurance market efficiency to a dynamic setting. It introduces continuously open markets that allow for more efficient asset allocation. It also estimates the role of preferences and endowments in the classification of risks, which is done primarily in terms of the actuarial properties of the underlying risk process. The paper further extends insurability to include correlated and catastrophic events. Under these very general conditions the paper defines a condition that determines whether a small number of standard insurance contracts (together with aggregate assets) suffice to complete markets or one needs to introduce such assets as mutual insurance. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D81, D99, G11.     

Differences Between Short‐ and Long‐Term Risk Aversion: An Optimal Asset Allocation Perspective

This paper studies the long‐term asset allocation problem of an investor with different risk aversion attitudes to the short and the long term. We characterize investor's preferences with a utility function exhibiting a regime shift in risk aversion at some point of the multiperiod investment horizon that is estimated using threshold nonlinearity methods. Our empirical results for a portfolio of cash, bonds and stocks suggest that long‐term risk aversion is higher than short‐term risk aversion and increases with the investment horizon. The exposure of the investment portfolio from stocks to bonds and cash increases with the degree of risk aversion.     

How supply chain oriented is the port sector?

The current literature recognizes the relevance of supply chain orientation for ports and terminals. However, there is very little empirical study on the issue, particularly in relation to whether in fact ports are supply chain oriented. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by considering the port of Incheon as a case in point and by measuring the degree of its supply chain orientation based on certain valid indicators drawn from the current literature. Further, unlike the previous empirical literature, this paper examines both operator and user perspectives. The findings of this study have significant strategic policy implications and shed more light on the role of supply chain orientation in practice.     

Olympic Games: No legacy for sports

Countries whose cities host the Summer Olympic Games increase significantly their success during the competition. We study whether such effect is lasting or not. We compute the effect of hosting on the total number of medals in the subsequent games. To confront the issue that the selection of the host city is endogenous, we use a natural counterfactual: countries whose cities also bid for the Olympics but were not selected by the International Olympic Committee. In all cases, we find that Olympic success on medals fades away immediately after hosting.     

Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area

This paper focuses on the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports made by euro area countries originating outside the area. Using data on import unit values for 13 different product categories for each country, we estimate industry-specific rates of pass-through across and within countries for all euro members. In the short-run, pass-through rates differ across industries and countries and are less than one. In the long-run neither full pass-through nor equality of pass-through rates across industries and countries can be rejected. Differences exist across euro area countries in the degree that a common exchange rate movement gets transmitted into consumer prices and costs of production indices. Most of these differences in transmission rates are due to the distinct degree of openness of each country to non-euro area imports rather than to the heterogeneity in the structure of imports.