Aggregation across countries in stochastic population forecasts

Stochastic methods of multi-state population modeling are less developed than methods for single states for two reasons. First, the structure of a multi-state population is inherently more complex than that of a single state because of state-to-state transitions. Second, estimates of cross-state correlations of the vital processes are a largely uncharted territory. Unlike multi-state lifetable theory, in forecasting applications the role of directed flows from state to state is often less important than the overall coherence of the assumptions concerning the vital processes. This is the case in the context of the European Union. Thus, a simplified approach is feasible, in which migration is represented by state-specific net numbers of migrants. This allows the use of existing single-state software, when simulations are suitably organized, in a multi-state setting. To address the second problem, we provide empirical estimates of cross-country covariances in the forecast uncertainty of fertility, mortality, and net migration. Together with point forecasts of these parameters that are coherent across countries, this produces coherent forecasts for aggregates of countries. The finding is that models for intermediate correlations are necessary for a proper accounting of forecast uncertainty at the aggregate level, in this case the European Union.     

Investment Behaviour,Population Structure and Long-term Growth in Eastern Europe and Russia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Most-favoured-nation treaty in service of trade? Case: early trade policy relations between Finland and Japan and their impact on the sales networks of the Finnish forest industry

This article scrutinises the significance of the most-favoured-nation (MFN) treaty in promoting the development of commercial activity and its results in transnational trade. As cardinal agents of trade policy, governments act as ‘umpires’ in formulating and guarding the rules of international trade, while the ‘players’ are private corporations which conduct commercial operations in the playing field of international trade. Within the framework of Finno-Japanese trade relations, the players established and developed their trade networks (corporate interconnections) regardless of the umpires and their official rules, meaning the commercial treaties. Through a close examination of the early trade policy relations between Finland and Japan along with the formation and development of the Finnish forest industry’s sales networks into the Japanese market in the early twentieth century, this study demonstrates that there was no explicit causal connection between MFN treaties and the evolution of the Finnish forest industry’s export efforts – and their results.     

Intra-organizational impediments to the development of shopfloor competence and commitment: The case of a Finnish-owned greenfield paper mill in East Germany

Building new production facilities abroad poses a huge challenge to the human resource practices of a firm. This is because reaching the required level of competence and commitment is not possible without adjusting these practices to the characteristics of local personnel. However, there are few empirical studies that highlight how such situations have actually been handled. This paper makes a contribution through an examination of the initial phases of a Finnish-owned greenfield paper mill in East Germany. The evidence used in the study includes documentary analysis, interviews and discussions with actors at the different organizational levels. The case study demonstrates how managerial subdivisions and the absence of local actors from the higher levels of the managerial hierarchy impede development of competence and commitment among the new employees. The evidence presented suggests that the involvement of various organizational actors in human resource management processes should be given more weight in further research.     

Household Level Economic Incentives, Unemployment Trap and Job Finding Probability

This paper considers the sensitivity of the household's disposable income with respect to the labour market states and the labour market transitions of unemployed workers. The paper analyses the following questions: (i) which are the determinants of starting wages? (ii) how many unemployed are in the unemployment trap? (iii) how do household level economic incentives affect the conditional probability of finding a job? The empirical analysis is based on individual panel data covering the years 1987–1993 in Finland, when the unemployment rate rose from about 4% to 18%. We have estimated the starting wage equation to calculate the effects of hypothetical re-employment on the household's disposable income and to evaluate the frequency of the unemployment trap. To analyse factors affecting the transition out of unemployment to employment in open labour market, we estimate unemployment duration using a semi-parametric proportional risk model. The paper shows that the impact of the economic incentives, measured by the hypothetical change in household disposable income, on employment is more important in the recession than in the boom.     

Our Common European Model of Agriculture

Our Common European Model of Agriculture
Future internal and external forces on European agriculture mean that the CAP may look very different after 2013. However large these changes, the CAP will need to retain its common principles based on the European Model of Agriculture (EMA). This became clear in an informal September meeting of EU agriculture ministers in Oulu, arranged by the Finnish Presidency. A strong CAP will be needed in the future but it will have to evolve to meet upcoming challenges. Work on the future CAP will need to start soon and the Oulu meeting may become known as the starting point for those discussions. The CAP will have to provide a reasonable environment for practicing agriculture for very different farmers in very diverse conditions, and facilitate the supply of a wide variety of goods and services to consumers and taxpayers as only truly multifunctional agriculture can. If the CAP can maintain these characteristics it has an important role to play in a future Europe. The meeting in Oulu was also an important milestone for a very special reason: for the first time, all ten New Member States took an active part in the EMA-debate with full rights and responsibilities as part of the Union. Once again this underlines the central role of our common European Model of Agriculture.     

International Exploitation of Domestic R&D Exploration: New Insights from Russian Manufacturing Firms

In this paper, we approach R&D cooperation and international market expansion from an exploration-exploitation perspective and look how various domestic R&D partners affect international market expansion activities in Russian firms. Our findings, based on a data survey of 206 manufacturing companies, show that different partners affect differently when it comes to market expansion and that their effect depends on a number of things such as the proximity of the international market. Using the exploration-exploitation approach, we are able to explain the phenomenon in more detail and so contribute to the existing international business and innovation management literature.     

Analyst Coverage,Market Liquidity and Disclosure Quality: A Study of Fair-value Disclosures by European Real Estate Companies Under IAS 40 and IFRS 13

Disclosures in notes have been criticized by practitioners for being unwieldy and contributing little to the quality of the financial information. This study presents evidence on the association between disclosure quality, analyst following and liquidity in the real estate sector. More specifically, we study the disclosure of the methods and significant assumptions applied in determining fair values of investment properties under IAS 40 and IFRS 13. We find that disclosure quality is significantly higher under IFRS 13. Furthermore, we show that the quality is associated with analyst following and bid-ask spreads. However, the improved disclosures following the adoption of IFRS 13 are not associated with any significant positive economic consequences. This result indicates that the revised disclosure requirements in IFRS 13 did not solve any market imperfections.     

Exploration,exploitation, and financial performance: analysis of S&P 500 corporations

The literature suggests that established firms need to balance their exploration and exploitation activities in order to achieve superior performance. Yet, previous empirical research has modeled this balance as the interaction of orthogonal activities. In this study, we show that there is a trade‐off between exploration and exploitation and that the optimal balance between exploration and exploitation depends upon environmental conditions. Using a novel methodology to measure the relative exploration versus exploitation orientation, we find an inverted U‐shaped relationship between the relative share of explorative orientation and financial performance. This relationship is positively moderated by the R&D intensity of the industry in which the firm operates. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adapting supply chain management strategies to security – an analysis of existing gaps and recommendations for improvement

The purpose of this paper is to determine the main security threats in supply chains, to understand gaps in today’s supply chain management strategies and to make recommendations to enhance security in the context of supply chain management. Previous research lacks comprehensive studies and recommendations about how supply chain managers deal with security issues in line with the business visions and strategies of their companies. The study methodology is based on an exploratory approach. Data were collected from 20 managers from international companies by means of self-administered surveys, one-to-one interviews and group interviews. Study findings point out risk management as an important tool at the disposal of managers for trading off performance and vulnerability. However, some important challenges also need to be considered, such as lack of data, insiders, IT vulnerabilities, regulatory frameworks, criminal behaviour, etc. Hence, recommendations are made for managers to improve their understanding of supply chain security.