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61.
Using data on Asian equity markets, we observe that during periods of financial turmoil, deviations from the mean-variance framework become more severe, resulting in periods with additional downside risk to investors. Current risk management techniques failing to take this additional downside risk into account will underestimate the true Value-at-Risk with greater severity during periods of financial turnoil. We provide a conditional approach to the Value-at-Risk methodology, known as conditional VaR-x, which to capture the time variation of non-normalities allows for additional tail fatness in the distribution of expected returns. These conditional VaR-x estimates are then compared to those based on the RiskMetrics™ methodology from J.P. Morgan, where we find that the model provides improved forecasts of the Value-at-Risk. We are therefore able to show that our conditional VaR-x estimates are better able to capture the nature of downside risk, particularly crucial in times of financial crises. 相似文献
62.
63.
Panama disease and contract farming in the Philippines: Towards a political ecology of risk
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Despite the vast research on contract farming by agrarian scholars, little is known about interactions between biological risks and the social–political effects of contracts. This study analysed contract farming arrangements in the export banana industry in the Philippines amidst an expanding epidemic of Panama disease. We developed a political ecology of risk approach to investigate how ideas about technological and biological risks are influenced by contractual arrangements, and we borrowed from Cultural Theory the insight that risk and blame are connected concepts, always political, and disadvantage marginalized groups through disproportionate risk burdens. Data collection involved the study of contracts, interviews with decision‐makers, and focus group discussions with agrarian cooperatives. The views of both large corporations as well as organized smallholders were recorded. We found that the former contractually compel the latter to bear the burden of the disease, while blaming them for its spread. Risk decisions were embedded in the dynamics of agrarian social relationships, and economic and political arrangements between actors influenced possibilities and limitations for disease control. We argue that the contractual stipulations, in concert with blaming processes, create a discursive environment that both allow inequitable relations to remain unquestioned, and constrain possibilities for control of Panama disease. 相似文献
64.
Jan J. M. Pool Sharon Hiralal Raymond W. J. G. Ostelo Kees van der Veer Johan W. S. Vlaeyen Lex M. Bouter Henrica C. W. de Vet 《Quality and Quantity》2009,43(5):773-780
The purpose of this study was to qualitatively evaluate patients understanding and interpretation of the wording used in test
items of the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK). The TSK was developed to measure fear of movement in patients suffering from
low back pain. The TSK is being increasingly used for other pain conditions. Patients with sub-acute neck pain experience
problems while completing this questionnaire. The aim of this study was to elicit these problems. The study was conducted
within the framework of a randomised controlled trial. The Three-Step Test Interview (TSTI) was used to collect data on the
thoughts or considerations of respondents while completing the TSK. In the analysis, each transcribed interview was divided
into three segments. The thoughts and considerations were then analysed and categorised per item. During the TSTI two problems
were identified. One concerned the meaning of specific words used, like “dangerous” and “injury”. The other problem was that
several implicit assumptions within some items make it difficult for respondents to answer these items. It was concluded that
in the development and validation of questionnaires like the TSK, not only quantitative psychometric properties are important,
but also qualitative research has an important contribution to enhance applicability. 相似文献
65.
Finite sample distributions of studentized inequality measures differ substantially from their asymptotic normal distribution in terms of location and skewness. We study these aspects formally by deriving the second-order expansion of the first and third cumulant of the studentized inequality measure. We state distribution-free expressions for the bias and skewness coefficients. In the second part we improve over first-order theory by deriving Edgeworth expansions and normalizing transforms. These normalizing transforms are designed to eliminate the second-order term in the distributional expansion of the studentized transform and converge to the Gaussian limit at rate O(n−1). This leads to improved confidence intervals and applying a subsequent bootstrap leads to a further improvement to order O(n−3/2). We illustrate our procedure with an application to regional inequality measurement in Côte d’Ivoire. 相似文献
66.
Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger Jakob de Haan Kees Koedijk 《European Journal of Political Economy》2003,19(4):905
We appreciate that the Italian central bank has been able to provide the requested information for our comparison of the research output of European central banks. Based on this information, the ranking of the Italian central bank improves considerably. Still, many small central banks have a better research performance than the Banca d'Italia and, after recomputation, our previous conclusion that “small is beautiful” is not compromised. 相似文献
67.
Zusammenfassung Lang- und kurzfristige Analyse des Marktes für Naturkautschuk.-Die Autoren benutzen ein Vierteljahresmodell des Marktes für
Naturkautschuk sowie langfristige Jahrgangsmodelle des Angebots von Naturkautschuk und der Nachfrage nach Kautschuk insgesamt,
um die Zweckm?\igkeit der Bufferstock-Vereinbarung im Rahmen des Internationalen Naturkautschukabkommens zu beurteilen. Die
Vereinbarung bewirkte, da\ die Einnahmen der Erzeuger um bis zu 20 vH anstiegen, aber jetzt — nachdem der Bufferstock g?nzlich
verkauft worden ist — die Konsumenten den gr?\eren Vorteil haben. Das Abkommen kann die Wirkung der ?nderungen der gesamten
Rohstoffpreise nicht auffangen. Verschiedene Szenarien für den Rest des Jahrhunderts deuten auf einen geringfügigen Rückgang
der Preise für Naturkautschuk hin.
Résumé L’analyse à long terme et à court terme pour le marché du caoutchouc naturel. — Un modèle trimestriel pour le marché du caoutchouc naturel et les modèles vintages en longue durée pour l’offre du caoutchouc naturel et la demande pour tout le caoutchouc sont appliqués pour évaluer la viabilité du stock de réserve selon les règles de l’Accord International sur le Caoutchouc Naturel. L’accord a augmenté les revenues des producteurs jusqu’à 20 p.c. pendant quelques trimestres, mais maintenant où tout le stock de réserve est vendu, les consommateurs en ont profité le plus. L’accord ne peut pas compenser l’influence des variations des prix des matières. Plusieurs scenarios pour le reste du siècle indiquent une petite réduction des prix du caoutchouc naturel.
Resumen Un análisis de corto y largo plazo del mercado de caucho natural. — En este trabajo se utilizan un modelo trimestral y modelos de vendimia de largo plazo, representando la oferta y las distintas clases de demanda de caucho, para analizar la viabilidad de un almacén compensatorio en el marco del Acuerdo Internacional sobre Caucho Natural. Su efecto ha sido el de incrementar el ingreso de los productores en un 20 por ciento en algunos trimestres, pero ahora que las cantidades del almacén compensatorio han sido vendidas, los consumidores se han beneficiado aún más. El Acuerdo no puede responder al impacto de cambios de precios generales. El estudio de varios escenarios para el período hasta el fin del Siglo indica la posibilidad de una reductión marginal del precio del caucho natural que puede ser fácilmente absorbida extendiendo las plantaciones.相似文献
68.
Berry Christopher Burton Scot Kees Jeremy Andrews J. Craig 《Journal of Business Ethics》2021,171(4):757-770
Journal of Business Ethics - Due to the ethical breaches of tobacco companies over a 50-year period, a U.S. Court ruled in United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc. that major U.S. tobacco companies... 相似文献
69.
The maximum likelihood estimator of the adjustment coefficient in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model (CVAR) is generally biased. For the case where the cointegrating vector is known in a first-order CVAR with no intercept, we derive a condition for the unbiasedness of the maximum likelihood estimator of the adjustment coefficients, and provide a simple characterization of the bias in case this condition is violated. A feasible bias correction method is shown to virtually eliminate the bias over a large part of the parameter space. 相似文献
70.
A tale of values-driven and profit-seeking social investors 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The segmentation of the socially responsible investing (SRI) movement with a values-versus-profit orientation solves the puzzling evidence that both socially responsible and controversial stocks produce superior returns. We derive that the segment of values-driven investors primarily uses “negative” screens to avoid controversial stocks, while the profit-driven segment uses “positive” screens. As the result of an empirical analysis over the period 1992-2008, we base our segmentation on investment screens that help us to examine whether values affect prices. We find that, although the profit-driven segment earns abnormal returns in the short run, these profit-generating opportunities do not persist in the long run for SRI stocks. However, our conclusions highlight the observation that different views on SRI can be complementary in the short run. 相似文献