Can Natural Experiments Measure Behavioral Responses to Environmental Risks?

Efforts to measure people’s responses to spatially delineated risks confront the potential for correlation between these risks and other, unobserved characteristics of these locations. The possibility of correlation arises in part because individuals observe other locational attributes that can be expected to influence the hedonic equilibrium. One response to this problem is to use events from nature to exploit both temporal and spatial variation in the behavioral responses of interest. This paper evaluates the use of hurricanes as a source of new risk information to households in coastal counties potentially subject to the effects of these storms. We study the extent to which housing prices before and after hurricane Andrew, a hurricane with unprecedented property loss, reveal how Floridians responded to the risk information provided by the storm. Two counties are selected – one without and another with damage from the hurricane. To evaluate the plausibility of using quasi-random experiments for locations not directly affected by natural events, we compare Lee County’s results to those of Dade County, where the majority of the damage occurred. Our findings suggest, after controlling for ex post storm damage and changes in insurance markets, there is a reasonably high level of consistency in a repeat sales model’s ability to estimate the effects of the risk information conveyed by the storm for both counties. Department of Economics, Williams College, Affiliated Economist, CEnREP, North Carolina State University and University Distinguished Professor, North Carolina State University, and Resources for the Future University Fellow, respectively. Senior authorship is not assigned. Thanks are due to Shelby Gerking and two anonymous reviewers for careful and constructive comments that substantially improved the paper. Michael Darden and Jaren Pope provided excellent research assistance and Alex Boutaud and Susan Hinton helped to make sense out of numerous drafts of this work. Smith’s contribution was partially supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), grant number EMW-2004-GR-0112. However, any opinion, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect views of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.     

The Effective Delivery of a Streaming Video Course Lecture

Abstract

This study compares the effects of a faculty-read non-interactive streaming video lecture to the same lecture read by paid actors on student performance and perceptions. The scope of the study is limited to one learning objective of the first accounting course. No significant differences were found in student performance (n = 46), as measured by quiz grades, or student perceptions, as measured by a survey instrument, between the lectures read by faculty members and the lectures read by actors. These findings have implications for authors of online course content because the results suggest that the effectiveness of a non-interactive video presentation might not be dependent on the presenter. Faculty time might best be spent developing content with paid student actors going on-camera for recording the actual presentation.     

The Performance of Commercial Mortgages

This study examines the return characteristics of a large, well-diversified commercial mortgage portfolio. Mortgage-specific cash-flow histories are constructed for 2,480 loans originated over the period 1974 through 1990, and a contingent-claims approach to pricing risky debt is used to estimate inter-temporal market values. Quarterly holding-period returns are compared across selected mortgage groups and to alternate asset classes. Our findings suggest that both mortgage returns and volatility of return are comparable to those of other forms of fixed-income assets over the study period. Implied property price volatility is found to average 17%, a result significantly higher than reported in earlier studies. While mortgage returns are found to vary by property type and region of origin, cross correlation of returns is found to be high, illustrating the systematic effect of interest rates on the performance of commercial mortgages over the period 1974 through 1990. However, an increase in credit risk in the latter years of the study suggests that diversification may be a worthwhile objective for holders of these assets. We do not find evidence to suggest that abnormal returns were earned on commercial mortgage portfolios over the study period.     

FINANCIAL LITERACY AND PENSION INVESTMENT DECISIONS

The call for enhanced financial literacy amongst consumers is a global phenomenon, driven by the growing complexity of financial markets and products, and government concerns about the affordability of supporting an ageing population. Worldwide, defined benefit pensions are giving way to the risk and uncertainty of defined contribution superannuation/pension funds where fund members now make choices and decisions that were once made on their behalf. An important prerequisite for informed financial decision‐making is adequate financial knowledge and skills to make competent investment decisions. This paper reports the findings of an online survey of the members of a large Australian public sector‐based superannuation fund and shows that although respondents generally understand basic financial matters, on average, their understanding of investments concepts, such as the relationship between risk and returns, is inadequate. These results highlight the need for education programs focusing specifically on developing fund members’ investment knowledge and skills to facilitate informed retirement savings decisions.     

Meta-analysis in model implementation: choice sets and the valuation of air quality improvements

This research illustrates how the methods developed for meta-analysis can serve to document and summarize voluminous information derived from repeated sensitivity analyses. Our application is to the sensitivity of welfare estimates derived from discrete choice models to assumptions about the choice set. These assumptions affect welfare estimates through both the estimated parameters of the model and, conditional on the parameters, the substitution among alternatives. In our specific application, the evaluation is in terms of estimated benefits of air quality improvements in Los Angeles based on discrete choices of neighborhood and housing. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.