Regional effects of federal tax shocks

This article studies the effects of federal tax changes on U.S.‐state‐level income. Utilizing an exogenous tax shock series recently proposed in the literature, we find considerable variation in how federal tax changes affect regional income: estimated state income multipliers range between –0.2 in Utah and –3.7 in Hawaii. Analyzing the determinants of differences in regional tax multipliers suggests that size and composition of the state tax base help explain the observed heterogeneity in the transmission of federal tax policy.     

Long‐term care policy with lazy rotten kids

This paper studies the determination of informal long‐term care (LTC) provided by children in a scenario which is somewhere in between perfect altruism and selfish exchanges. Parents are altruistic but children are purely selfish, and neither side can make credible commitments. The model is based on Becker's “rotten kid” specification except that it explicitly accounts for the sequence of decisions. In Becker's world, with a single good efficiency is achieved. We show that when family aid is introduced the outcome is likely to be inefficient. Still, the rotten kid mechanism is at work and ensures that a positive level of LTC is provided as long as the bequest motive is operative. We identify the inefficiencies by comparing the laissez‐faire (subgame perfect) equilibrium to the first‐best allocation. We first assume that families are identical ex ante and then consider the case where dynasties differ in wealth. We study how the provision of LTC can be improved by public policies. Interestingly, crowding out of private aid by public LTC is not a problem in this setting. With an operative bequest motive, public LTC will have no impact on private aid. More amazingly still, when the bequest motive is (initially) not operative, public insurance may even enhance the provision of informal aid.     

FOOL THE MARKETS? CREATIVE ACCOUNTING,FISCAL TRANSPARENCY AND SOVEREIGN RISK PREMIA

We investigate the effects of official fiscal data and creative accounting signals on interest rate spreads between bond yields in the European Union. We find that two different measures of creative accounting indeed both increase the spread. The increase of the risk premium is stronger, if financial markets are unsure about the true extent of creative accounting. Moreover, fiscal transparency reduces risk premia. Instrumental variable regressions confirm these results by addressing potential reverse causality problems and measurement bias.     

Shareholder Value Implications of Compliance with the German Corporate Governance Code

This study contributes to the ongoing discussion of the German Corporate Governance Code (GCGC) of the Regierungskommission Deutscher Corporate Governance Kodex (Government Commission), which should enhance the confidence of national and international investors. We apply the Feltham and Ohlson ( 1995 ) valuation model to a panel dataset of 421 German CDAX firms over the period 2002–2012 and find a positive effect of the level of compliance with the GCGC on the market value of firms. We conclude that the recommendations of the GCGC reflect corporate governance that satisfies investors' needs, as the capital markets perceive them. Our results are in favor of the efforts of the Government Commission, which have attracted criticism from both theorists and practitioners both in the past and at present. From the perspective of managerial and decision economics, the empirical results of this study suggest that executives should follow as many recommendations of the GCGC as possible. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introduction: Organizations, Risk and Regulation

abstract    Risk, regulation and practices of organizing are interrelated in a myriad of ways. Natural disasters, technical failures, and also processes of organizing are sources of risk to which organizations must respond and for which new managerial and regulatory practices are demanded. In this introduction we highlight three salient features of risk management: the (un)intended production of risk by organizations; the complex interrelationship between risk management and regulation; and the evolving and often contested nature of risk management knowledge. Each of these three themes is evident in the different contributions to this themed section.     

A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation

Forecasts of key interest rates set by central banks are of paramount concern for investors and policy makers. Recently it has been shown that forecasts of the federal funds rate target, the most anticipated indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank's monetary policy stance, can be improved considerably when its evolution is modeled as a marked point process (MPP). This is due to the fact that target changes occur in discrete time with discrete increments, have an autoregressive nature and are usually in the same direction. We propose a model which is able to account for these dynamic features of the data. In particular, we combine Hamilton and Jordà's [2002. A model for the federal funds rate target. Journal of Political Economy 110(5), 1135–1167] autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) and Russell and Engle's [2005. A discrete-state continuous-time model of financial transactions prices and times: the autoregressive conditional multinomial-autoregressive conditional duration model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 23(2), 166 – 180] autoregressive conditional multinomial (ACM) model. The paper also puts forth a methodology to evaluate probability function forecasts of MPP models. By improving goodness of fit and point forecasts of the target, the ACH–ACM qualifies as a sensible modeling framework. Furthermore, our results show that MPP models deliver useful probability function forecasts at short and medium term horizons.     

Taxation and consumption: evidence from a representative survey of the German population

Using a representative survey of the German population, this article studies self-reported individual consumption responses to a recent exogenous payroll tax reduction. About 55% of the respondents report that they spend the extra money, indicating considerable potential for tax changes to affect consumption and economic activity. Our analysis of the socio-demographic and economic covariates of consumption responses suggests, among other effects, that interest rates are related to consumption responses to tax changes, and that households with higher income have a higher propensity to consume.