Robust bootstrap procedures for the chain-ladder method

Insurers are faced with the challenge of estimating the future reserves needed to handle historic and outstanding claims that are not fully settled. A well-known and widely used technique is the chain-ladder method, which is a deterministic algorithm. To include a stochastic component one may apply generalized linear models to the run-off triangles based on past claims data. Analytical expressions for the standard deviation of the resulting reserve estimates are typically difficult to derive. A popular alternative approach to obtain inference is to use the bootstrap technique. However, the standard procedures are very sensitive to the possible presence of outliers. These atypical observations, deviating from the pattern of the majority of the data, may both inflate or deflate traditional reserve estimates and corresponding inference such as their standard errors. Even when paired with a robust chain-ladder method, classical bootstrap inference may break down. Therefore, we discuss and implement several robust bootstrap procedures in the claims reserving framework and we investigate and compare their performance on both simulated and real data. We also illustrate their use for obtaining the distribution of one year risk measures.     

The Use of Maximum Entropy to Estimate Input-Output Coefficients From Regional Farm Accounting Data

This paper proposes the use of the Generalised Maximum Entropy (GME) method to estimate input-output coefficients, which reflect the unobserved allocation of farm input accounting costs to the various outputs produced. The GME method uses Shannon's information criterion as a basis for estimation. The performance of the GME method is compared with three other estimation techniques: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Bayesian estimation, and Linear Programming (LP). The various methods are applied to accounting data from a sample of beef-dairy farms in Brittany, France. The analysis shows that the GME method offers an interesting alternative to “traditional” estimation methods. In contrast with the latter, though, the GME method is suitable to handle easily the problems of singularity, constrained estimation, and zero-observations. Moreover, due to its flexibility, transparency and relative ease of implementation, the GME method is of great value to practitioners. However, the sensitivity of the GME estimates with respect to the design of the prior information set needs to be investigated further.     

A Competitive,Sustainable and Diverse Agriculture: A View of the CAP Beyond 2013 Pour une agriculture compétitive,durable and variée : un point de vue sur la PAC après 2013 Eine wettbewerbsfähige,nachhaltige und vielfältige Landwirtschaft: Ein Ausblick auf die GAP nach 2013

A Competitive, Sustainable and Diverse Agriculture: A View of the CAP Beyond 2013 New challenges make clear that past achievements of the CAP cannot be taken for granted. A strong European agricultural policy remains necessary after 2013, at the service of Europe’s citizens and agricultural sector. However, in order to realise the vision embedded in the European agricultural model, the CAP will have to evolve. Beyond dealing with the negative consequences of the economic crisis, more attention should go to competitiveness and entrepreneurship. The functioning of the supply chain should be improved leading to a fairer distribution of costs and benefits. Producer organisations should be expanded and strengthened. Work is needed to put into practice the concept of green growth and to explore the synergy between the demand for public goods and the need for higher farm income. An improved system of direct support remains justified, to compensate for extra costs and to stabilise income. The CAP post-2013 should offer a strong EU framework, able to meet shared challenges, with clear objectives and sufficient funding. Within that framework, diversity is a fact, and regions should be able to deploy CAP policies and funds in a more flexible way to accommodate local needs and problems and to be able to react to changing circumstances.     

FACTOR PRICES AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN LESS INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMIES 1870–1939

Global trade expansion after 1870 had potentially powerful effects on income distribution, especially in land-abundant less industrialised economies, by increasing land prices relative to wages. The papers in this issue add evidence on wage–rentals for a range of countries, specifically Australia, Canada, Ghana, India, and Sweden. These new data offer partial support for Jeffrey Williamson's view that the distributional effects of booming global trade to 1914 were powerful and ubiquitous, but they highlight that more attention might be given to geographical boundaries and to other distribution forces including technology and wage bargaining conditions.     

Technical efficiency in texas nursing facilities: A stochastic production frontier approach

A rapidly aging U. S. population is straining the resources available for long term care and increasing the urgency of efficient operations in nursing homes. The scope for productivity improvements can be examined by estimating a stochastic frontier production function. We apply the methods of maximum likelihood and quantile regression to a panel of Texas nursing facilities and infer that the average productivity shortfall due to avoidable technical inefficiency is at least 8 percent and perhaps as large as 20 percent. Non-profit facilities are notably less productive than comparable facilities operated for profit, and the industry has constant returns to scale.