Interpretation problems of the partial correlation with nonnormally distributed variables

The partial correlation is a commonly used measure for assessing the bivariate correlation of two quantitative variables after eliminating the influence of one or more other variables. The partial correlation is generally interpreted as the correlation that would result if the variables to be eliminated were fixed (not allowed to vary and influence the other variables), which is referred to in the statistical literature as conditional correlation. The present paper demonstrates, by means of theoretical derivations and practical examples, that when the assumption of multivariate normality is violated (e.g., as a result of nonlinear relationships among the variables investigated) the usual interpretation of the partial correlation coefficient will be basically incorrect. In extreme cases the value of the partial correlation coefficient may be strongly positive, close to 1, whereas the conditional correlation may have a large negative value. To solve this problem the paper suggests to partial out a certain function (in most cases the square) of the variables whose effects are to be eliminated if nonlinear relationships are likely to occur.     

Notes on contributors

Abstract

Today, many public professionals feel estranged from the policy programmes they implement; that is, they experience ‘policy alienation’. This is of concern as, for satisfactory implementation, some identification with the policy is required. We conceptualize policy alienation based on the sociological concept of work alienation, and show how this can be used in policy implementation research. Studying a Dutch case of professionals implementing a new work disability decree, we observe how NPM practices increase policy alienation because of a perceived dysfunctional focus on efficiency and results. A large number of policy changes and stricter implementation rules further increased policy alienation.     

Information Shocks and the Dynamics of the Housing Market*

In this paper, we analyze housing‐market reactions to the release of previously unpublished information on school quality. Using high‐quality housing data, which precisely bracket the timing of the information shock, we investigate housing‐price dynamics within school‐catchment areas. We find a robust short‐term housing‐market reaction to the publication of school‐quality indicators, suggesting that this information was new to the households, and that households are willing to pay for better schools. The publication effect does not seem to be permanent as prices revert to pre‐publication levels after two to three months.     

Globalization,transparency and economic growth: The vulnerability of Chinese firms to macroeconomic shocks

The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. The abolition of capital controls and the dismantling of barriers of different kinds will expose previously sheltered companies to shocks originating in the global economic arena. Policy-makers in already globalized countries have learned that market participants should be prepared in due time to meet the new exposure to fluctuating rates of exchange, interest and inflation. China has recently adopted a version of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in an effort to improve the quality of information available for risk management and for pricing of risk. This paper analyzes the gains in transparency from the implementation of IFRS in Europe as of January 2005 and reports no improvements in regard to the macroeconomic impact on firms. Based on this experience, improvements for Chinese adoption are suggested. The paper presents a framework for how to understand and measure the impact of different scenarios on corporate performance. It also elaborates on how to communicate the macroeconomic effects to external stakeholders of the firm in a way that should foster further economic growth in China.     

The development of models of accounting information systems in Sweden

Traditionally, accounting has evolved as a technique. Practitioners and academics have striven to improve the technical features of accounting. Now, accounting is conceived increasingly as an organizational artefact which interacts with other organizational practices in shaping organizational reality. Taking a broad perspective of management control, this paper aims at contributing to our knowledge of accounting in this second sense and identifying some Swedish contributions to the tool-box of accounting. In reviewing the development of models of accounting information in Sweden mainly since World War II, different factors explaining the evolution of each model are identified. Analyses of these factors reveal that different groups of actors have been engaged in the development of different parts of the accounting information system (AIS). It is also noted that the introduction of models that are widely applied has delayed the emergence of new models better adapted to the current situation in business. Comparisons will be made with the development in some other countries.     

Accounting for Macroeconomic Influences on the Firm

Accounting based measures of exposure to macroeconomic shocks in exchange rates, interest rates and inflation do not capture the economic effects on the corporation of such shocks. We suggest measures that conceptually are coefficients in a multiple regression. The coefficients capture the sensitivity of a firm's real value or cash flows to unanticipated changes in each variable holding other variables constant. Information about such sensitivity coefficients would enable external stakeholders to distinguish between risk caused by firm-specific factors on the one hand and macroeconomic factors on the other. Scenario analysis is discussed as an alternative method for evaluating sensitivity coefficients. Information requirements for scenario and regression analysis are compared. Sensitivity coefficients can be used to identify a firm's functional currency or currency basket in which cash flows are independent of exchange rate changes. An example built on an actual case in Appendix demonstrates how insights can be gained from estimates of the suggested exposure measures.