A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion

We develop a multiple asset rational expectations model of asset prices to explain financial market contagion. Although the model allows contagion through several channels, our focus is on contagion through cross-market rebalancing. Through this channel, investors transmit idiosyncratic shocks from one market to others by adjusting their portfolios' exposures to shared macroeconomic risks. The pattern and severity of financial contagion depends on markets' sensitivities to shared macroeconomic risk factors, and on the amount of information asymmetry in each market. The model can generate contagion in the absence of news, as well as between markets that do not directly share macroeconomic risks.     

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries.     

The skill profile of the employees and the provision of flexible working hours in the workplace: a multilevel analysis across European countries

This article investigates the relationship between the skill profile of the employees (i.e. the percentage of employees in highly skilled jobs) and the provision of flexible working hours in the workplace (i.e. the proportion of employees entitled to adapt, within certain limits, the time when they begin or finish their daily work according to their personal needs or wishes). Analyses draw on the 2009 European Company Survey, conducted on a representative sample (N = 26,640) of European establishments in 29 countries. Multilevel mixed‐effects linear regressions are used to study to what extent both workplace‐level and national‐level variables affect this relationship. Findings suggest a strong, positive and non‐linear relationship between the variables under scrutiny, which is moderated, at national level, by both unemployment and trade union density rates.     

Proper strong-Fibonacci games

We define proper strong-Fibonacci (PSF) games as the subset of proper homogeneous weighted majority games which admit a Fibonacci representation. This is a homogeneous, type-preserving representation whose ordered sequence of type weights and winning quota is the initial string of Fibonacci numbers of the one-step delayed Fibonacci sequence. We show that for a PSF game, the Fibonacci representation coincides with the natural representation of the game. A characterization of PSF games is given in terms of their profile. This opens the way up to a straightforward formula which gives the number \(\varPsi (t)\) of such games as a function of t, number of non-dummy players’ types. It turns out that the growth rate of \(\varPsi (t)\) is exponential. The main result of our paper is that, for two consecutive t values of the same parity, the ratio \(\varPsi (t+2)/\varPsi (t)\) converges toward the golden ratio \({\varPhi }\).     

A systematic mapping study of process mining

This study systematically assesses the process mining scenario from 2005 to 2014. The analysis of 705 papers evidenced ‘discovery’ (71%) as the main type of process mining addressed and ‘categorical prediction’ (25%) as the main mining task solved. The most applied traditional technique is the ‘graph structure-based’ ones (38%). Specifically concerning computational intelligence and machine learning techniques, we concluded that little relevance has been given to them. The most applied are ‘evolutionary computation’ (9%) and ‘decision tree’ (6%), respectively. Process mining challenges, such as balancing among robustness, simplicity, accuracy and generalization, could benefit from a larger use of such techniques.     

Beyond technical skills training: The impact of credit counseling on the entrepreneurial behavior of Ugandan youth

There is low take‐up of financial credit among youth in Uganda because potential beneficiaries perceive associated risks as high. This study assesses the determinants of entrepreneurial risk tolerance among Ugandan youth using experimental data from a randomized control trial and a real‐life investment‐risk experiment. Credit counseling was provided to young men and women aged 18–35 who owned a business to educate them about the obligations and commitments associated with financial credit. The intervention had a significant impact on demand for credit and related intermediate outcomes such as ownership of a bank account and investment in assets. The study finds that youth exhibited lower demand for credit after business training because of increased awareness regarding the actual risks associated with receiving credit. Our findings reinforce national strategies to promote soft skills for business entrepreneurship that extend beyond standard business training.     

ECONOMIC WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE LEGALIZATION OF DRUGS: A CGE MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR COLOMBIA

In this paper, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model is used to analyze the effects of an ex ante legalization of drugs on the Colombian economy. The model consists of 11 productive sectors, 3 different labor force categories with unemployment, and 20 households divided by income and location. Changes in wages and migration are estimated using a labor participation model, and a NIDS estimates the demands of the households. Changes in household economic welfare, measured by changes in income and prices (CV and EV measurements), are very sensitive to the reinvestments that the government makes in the economy. By analyzing six different scenarios with different assumptions about changes in drug prices, investments of the government, and the termination of the armed conflict, the results suggest that economic welfare improves when the government reinvests military expenditures in other productive sectors or when the ‘economy of war’ continues and the legalization does not end the armed conflict.