Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed-smoothing asymptotics

We consider fixed-smoothing asymptotics for the Diebold and Mariano (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1995, 13(3), 253–263) test of predictive accuracy. We show that this approach delivers predictive accuracy tests that are correctly sized even when only a small number of out-of-sample observations is available. We apply the fixed-smoothing asymptotics to the Diebold and Mariano test to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and of the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF) against a simple random walk. Our results show that the predictive abilities of the SPF and of the ECB SPF were partially spurious.     

Performance estimation of a wind farm with a dependence structure between electricity price and wind speed

This paper aimed to estimate the income generated by a wind turbine over a given time interval. The income depends on two main variables: the wind speed that determines the produced energy and electricity price. Both wind speed and electricity price evolve randomly in time and are correlated. To consider this dependency, we applied a vector autoregressive process (VAR) that links both variables. An application was performed using real data from a hypothetical wind turbine located in Sardinia (Italy). The income simulated by using the VAR model was closer to the empirical value compared with that obtained by simulating wind speed and electricity prices as independent variables. The results were also discussed in relation to the introduction of the SAPEI submarine cable, which produces a significant change in the income value.     

How to Mend a Fragmented City: a Critique of ‘Infrastructural Solidarity'

Cities in Latin America in particular have been investing in new transportation networks such as bicycle systems, metros and bus rapid transit (BRT) technologies in recent years. These infrastructures are promoted as cures for trenchant social and spatial divisions as much as for traffic gridlock and vehicular pollution. This article unpacks the theory that infrastructures might mend cities that have been fragmented into disparate parts by uneven capitalist development. I argue that this ‘infrastructural solidarity' thesis relies on a troubled imagination—shared across urban design and strands of urban theory—that infrastructures are static, formal arrangements that concretize relations and enforce social cohesion or fragmentation. This article draws on qualitative research on the TransMilenio BRT system in Bogotá, Colombia, as well as on the work of Bruno Latour, suggesting that the political life of infrastructure is better revealed when such systems are understood as dense knots of shifting relations with complex temporalities. Arguments for the value of this type of actor‐network theory (ANT) reading often skew towards the esoteric, but the TransMilenio case shows how sorting through infrastructural ontologies actually matters in terms of how urbanists—academic and practicing—conceive of and work towards just and functional cities.     

Privatization,Financialization and State Restructuring in Eastern Germany: The case of Am südpark

Using a mix of survey data, results from a study on local planning politics and fieldwork, this article discusses the interplay of planning and welfare policies with global financial markets in the ‘making’ of social segregation in Halle‐Neustadt, a borough in the German city of Halle (Saale). Here, different developments come together. First, Halle‐Neustadt has experienced two waves of privatization, leading to a complete change of ownership structures, marked by the rise of financial investors. Second, welfare cuts have put increasing pressure on welfare recipients to live in the cheapest housing available. This has led to the emergence of a ‘Hartz IV business model’ based on low, but state‐subsidized, rents. Third, new planning policies have led to a massive drop in house prices, thus facilitating the use of ‘leverage’ strategies for financial investors. We expand on an already developed debate, providing new insights about relations between planning, state restructuring and financialization in a German context. We demonstrate that a broad array of changes in national regulatory settings, policy change in different sectors and local particularities can all be crucial in enabling financialization. We conclude that research should place greater emphasis on the state in providing explanations and take differences in context more seriously.     

董事会信息保密战

正创建互相信任的文化可能是董事会防范信息泄露的最佳措施,董事长应该以身作则,率先在董事会中营造充满信任与凝聚力的氛围信息时代,机密情报比以前更容易泄露。即时通讯工具和社交媒体赋予每个人通过英特网广泛传播消息的能力,而机密信息总是陷入被有意或无意暴露的风险中。追捧透明度和披露的文化潮流盛行,高调的泄密者时不时登上头版头条,维权股东和他们的提名     

Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data

This paper uses state‐level data to estimate the effect of government spending shocks during expansions and recessions. By employing a mixed‐frequency framework, we are able to include a long span of annual state‐level government spending data in our nonlinear quarterly panel VAR model. We find evidence that for the average state the fiscal multiplier is larger during recessions. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across the cross‐section. The degree of nonlinearity in the effect of spending shocks is larger in states that are subject to a higher degree of financial frictions. In contrast, states with a prevalence of manufacturing, mining and agricultural industries tend to have multipliers that are more similar across business cycle phases.     

Student perceptions of ethics,CSR, and sustainability (ECSRS) in hospitality management education

This study examines how hospitality students perceive ethics, corporate social responsibility (CSR), and sustainability (ECSRS) with regard to their current academic program and future career. Previous literature has shown an evolution in higher education institutions to implement ECSRS topics into their curriculum. This quantitative study measured 202 first-year students’ levels of interest, perceived importance, and potential implementation of ECSRS in a hospitality management program. Based on student responses, there is a high expectation that courses on ECSRS will be taught during their academic program to better prepare them for their future ambitions and the future of the planet.     

Perceptions of High Integrity Can Persist After Deception: How Implicit Beliefs Moderate Trust Erosion

Scholars have assumed that trust is fragile: difficult to build and easily broken. We demonstrate, however, that in some cases trust is surprisingly robust—even when harmful deception is revealed, some individuals maintain high levels of trust in the deceiver. In this paper, we describe how implicit theories moderate the harmful effects of revealed deception on a key component of trust: perceptions of integrity. In a negotiation context, we show that people who hold incremental theories (beliefs that negotiating abilities are malleable) reduce perceptions of their counterpart’s integrity after they learn that they were deceived, whereas people who hold entity theories (beliefs that negotiators’ characteristics and abilities are fixed) maintain their first impressions after learning that they were deceived. Implicit theories influenced how targets interpreted evidence of deception. Individuals with incremental theories encoded revealed deception as an ethical violation; individuals with entity theories did not. These findings highlight the importance of implicit beliefs in understanding how trust changes over time.     

Financial credit and social discredit: the pawnbroking dilemma

Researching, and therefore marketing, ‘unmentionable’ products has always been challenging. Pawnbroking, the act of offering a loan secured by the pledge of an item of value, fits within this domain; its use is stigmatised, despite dating back centuries and enjoying high levels of user satisfaction. This study explores perceptions of pawnbroking and recommends marketing tactics to reframe it as a ‘mentionable’ credit option, allowing the sector to benefit from increased flow of information. This research uses qualitative methods to explore perceptions of pawnbroking, identifying beliefs, attitudes and barriers to use through depth interviews with non-users. The results reveal minimal understanding of the pawnbroking process, with latent stigma and stereotyping reinforced by media sources. Social pressures, emanating from the negative perception of users and perceptions of important social groups, are influential in participants’ decisions to disassociate themselves from even the possibility of pawnbroker usage. The managerial implications are that pawnbrokers should emphasise the advantages of financial credit and minimise those of social discredit. Social marketing campaigns should target current perceptions of pawnbroking and encourage informed trial amongst a broader section of society.