Wirtschaftspolitik für die Eurozone

At the root of the euro crisis was not only a sovereign debt crisis but also a balance-of-payments crisis. A multi-faceted approach is required to restore sustainable growth and prevent a vicious circle of public and private sector deleveraging leading to weaker economic activity, which in turn results in a further deterioration in banks’ asset quality. Both governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) face challenges. Governments must make progress in restoring the health and resilience of the banking sector and introduce microeconomic reforms in product, services and labour markets to reduce divergent trends in competitiveness and productivity. Budgetary discipline must be respected, and the ECB should avoid any deflationary bias while stabilising inflation at or around two per cent for the euro area as a whole.     

PRODUCT FUNCTIONALITY,COMPETITION, AND MULTIPURCHASING

The more functionalities a good offers, the greater is its perceived quality. Equilibrium prices in standard spatial competition models depend solely on quality differences. We assume that new functionalities are more appreciated the closer a product is to a consumer's ideal variety. Prices are then increasing in functionality levels. Furthermore, we endogenize whether consumers buy only one of two varieties (single‐purchase) or both (multipurchase). Under multipurchase, there might be a hump‐shaped relationship between equilibrium prices and functionality levels. Therefore, it could be optimal for each supplier to sacrifice sales and set prices so high that multipurchase is eliminated.     

Optimal use of forecasts in economic policy decisions: An empirical test

A criterion for optimal use of forecasts of exogenous variables in a linear policy model with quadratic preferences is given, based on Johansen (1972). By calculating regressions of observed values with respect to raw forecast values used in the observation period, equations are established which can be used to transform raw forecasts into ‘certainty equivalents’. The method is applied to data from national budgeting and corresponding national accounts in Norway 1948–-1971. Especially the forecasts for the volume of exports, but also for import prices, could be considerably improved, for policy purposes in the context of the model of the type mentioned, by the transformation described. Some of the forecasts, when optimally transformed, should be permitted to fluctuate more strongly and thereby influence policy more strongly. Some tentative results for Sweden and the Netherlands are briefly mentioned and compared with the evidence for Norway.     

Optimization under non-linear constraints

In this paper a time saving method is proposed for maximising likelihood functions when the parameter space is subject to non-linear constraints, expressable as second order polynomials. The suggested approach is especially attractive when dealing with systems with many parameters.     

Qualifications,discrimination, or assimilation? An extended framework for analysing immigrant wage gaps

In this paper, we analyze immigrant wage gaps and propose an extension of the traditional wage decomposition technique, which is a synthesis from two strains of literature on ethnic/immigrant wage differences, namely the assimilation literature and the discrimination literature. We estimate separate wage equations for natives and a number of immigrant groups using panel data sample selection models. Based on the estimations, we find that the immigrant wage gap is caused by a lack of qualifications and incomplete assimilation, and that a large fraction of that gap would disappear if only immigrants could find employment and thus accumulate work experience.First version received: June 2001 / Final version received: October 2003The project has been supported financially by the Danish Research Agency (the FREJA grant) and TSER. Furthermore, the first author received support from the Danish Social Science Research Council (SSF) while this work was undertaken. We are grateful for comments from the editor of Empirical Economics, Bernd Fitzenberger, two anonymous referees, several seminar and conference participants, and for the research assistance done by Thomas H. Jensen.     

Optimal unemployment benefit policy and the firm productivity distribution

This paper provides a novel justification for a declining time profile of unemployment benefits that does not rely on moral-hazard or consumption-smoothing considerations. We consider a simple search environment with homogeneous workers and low- and high-productivity firms. By introducing a declining time profile of benefits, the government can affect the equilibrium wage profile in a manner that enhances the sorting of workers across low- and high-productivity firms. We demonstrate that optimal government policy depends on the dispersion and skewness of the firms’ productivity distribution.     

Selective versus Random Moose Harvesting: Does it Pay to be a Prudent Predator?

Seeking to act as prudent predators in many biological systems, humans try to harvest in a sustainable manner. In Sweden, wildlife managers and moose hunters use information about the future contribution of individual moose to population growth (i.e., their reproductive value), in order to harvest low-and non-reproductive animals. This selective harvest strategy results in a significantly faster overall population growth rate. To investigate whether this selective harvest policy is economically beneficial, we calculated the present value of the selective moose hunting policy used in Sweden compared to the present value of a non-regulated (i.e. random) moose harvest. Present values of the moose hunting produced by the different hunting regimes were calculated for a period of ten years and at interest rates ranging between 1% and 10%. The difference in present value between the selective hunting policy and the average outcome of random harvesting was SEK 310 million ($ 36 million) and SEK 300 million ($ 34 million), or SEK 1 321 ($ 154) and SEK 1 279 ($ 149) for an average moose hunter, when using interest rates of 3% and 4%, respectively. To determine whether the current selective moose hunting policy is economically profitable or not, benefit estimates like these should be weighted against the costs of upholding the policy. Most of the costs probably lie in providing the hunters with information about the future harvesting prospects and reducing the risk of divergences from the policy. The welfare effects of a hunting policy will also be dependent on the individual hunter's preferences, for instance in terms of their attitudes towards risk. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

THE DRIVERS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE

The main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change, broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. Using the GGDC 10‐Sector Database, this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world – that is Europe and the USA, Asia, Latin America, and Africa – then reviews four determinants of structural change: (i) changes in income, (ii) changes in relative (sectoral) prices, (iii) changes in input–output linkages and (iv) changes in comparative advantage(s) via globalization and trade.