Empirical Evidence on the Use of Credit Scoring for Predicting Insurance Losses with Psycho-social and Biochemical Explanations

An important development in personal lines of insurance in the United States is the use of credit history data for insurance risk classification to predict losses. This research presents the results of collaboration with industry conducted by a university at the request of its state legislature. The purpose was to see the viability and validity of the use of credit scoring to predict insurance losses given its controversial nature and criticism as redundant of other predictive variables currently used. Working with industry and government, this study analyzed more than 175,000 policyholders’ information for the relationship between credit score and claims. Credit scores were significantly related to incurred losses, evidencing both statistical and practical significance. We investigate whether the revealed relationship between credit score and incurred losses was explainable by overlap with existing underwriting variables or whether the credit score adds new information about losses not contained in existing underwriting variables. The results show that credit scores contain significant information not already incorporated into other traditional rating variables (e.g., age, sex, driving history). We discuss how sensation seeking and self-control theory provide a partial explanation of why credit scoring works (the psycho-social perspective). This article also presents an overview of biological and chemical correlates of risk taking that helps explain why knowing risk-taking behavior in one realm (e.g., risky financial behavior and poor credit history) transits to predicting risk-taking behavior in other realms (e.g., automobile insurance incurred losses). Additional research is needed to advance new nontraditional loss prediction variables from social media consumer information to using information provided by technological advances. The evolving and dynamic nature of the insurance marketplace makes it imperative that professionals continue to evolve predictive variables and for academics to assist with understanding the whys of the relationships through theory development.     

Transparency and trust in the European pharmaceutical sector: outcomes from an experimental study

Many European pharmaceutical regulators have committed to a more open, inclusive, and transparent model of regulatory decision-making in recent years. Yet, based on little empirical evidence, they have overwhelmingly adopted ‘fishbowl’ transparency measures, ‘the full disclosure of information without explanatory information or contextualization’ (e.g. heightening access to raw data). This paper conveys recent findings from an open-ended questionnaire with 200 face-to-face interviews carried out in the UK and the Netherlands. The study provides evidence on how members of the public are likely to react to ‘fishbowl’ transparency policies and receiving decontextualized data. After showing respondents raw data from a periodic safety update report that regulators are proposing to proactively release, the survey found they were shocked, concerned, and more worried, while many said they would reconsider taking their medicines and seek further advice. Based on these findings, the authors argue that enhancing ‘transparency’ needs to be integrated with effective, evidence- and science-based benefit/risk communication.     

Do auditors constrain intertemporal income shifting in private companies?*

This study investigates the association between private company auditing and intertemporal income shifting. Using a large reduction in the Finnish corporate tax rate as a strong incentive for income shifting and financial statement data coupled with proprietary information from the tax authorities, we analyse accruals and cost stickiness of small private companies. Our results reveal significant differences in accrual income shifting between audited and unaudited companies, but only among companies that on average could anticipate the tax reduction the most. Further, we find auditors to restrict sticky selling, general, and administrative cost behaviour that we hypothesise is associated with illegal actions. Additional tests expose a nontrivial number of incorrectly unaudited companies which are the ones mostly associated with income shifting. Taken together, our study highlights the effects of audit exemption and the importance of enforcement while also suggesting that the audit process is value adding for the tax authorities.     

Suffizienzorientierte Geschäftsmodelle am Beispiel von Stromspeichern

Business models are essential tools for understanding and creating the logic of a company’s business including all relevant stakeholders’ activities. Despite the knowledge of the organic-systematic interdependencies from companies with other stakeholders, business models of the energy economy primarily aim to transfer their value propositions via revenue streams into economical value. This article provides solutions for theoretical and practical extensions of business models for energy storaging to ensure they are sustainable in the future. Sufficiency-oriented energy storage business models are described as a sustainable framework.     

Fairness is intuitive

In this paper we provide new evidence showing that fair behavior is intuitive to most people. We find a strong association between a short response time and fair behavior in the dictator game. This association is robust to controls that take account of the fact that response time might be affected by the decision-maker’s cognitive ability and swiftness. The experiment was conducted with a large and heterogeneous sample recruited from the general population in Denmark. We find a striking similarity in the association between response time and fair behavior across groups in the society, which suggests that the predisposition to act fairly is a general human trait.     

The Development of Inequality and Poverty in Indonesia, 1932–2008

We estimate inequality in Indonesia between 1932 and 2008. Inequality increased at the start of this period but declined sharply from the 1960s onwards. The increase was due to a shift from domestic to export agriculture over the period up to the Great Depression. During the 1930s, as the price of export crops declined, the income of rich farmers suffered a blow. Yet this was counterbalanced by an increasing gap between expenditures in the urban and rural sectors, causing an overall rise in inequality. As for the second half of the century, we find that the employment shift towards manufacturing and services—combined with an increase in labour productivity in agriculture—accounts for inequality’s decline, which was halted in the 1990s. These inequality trends affected poverty as well, but prior to the 1940s the negative impact of the rise in inequality was offset by an increase in per capita GDP. Between 1950 and 1980 a decline in inequality, combined with increased per capita GDP, rapidly raised a large portion of the population above the poverty line.