Urbanization and poverty reduction: the role of rural diversification and secondary towns1

A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania, during 1991/1994–2010 shows that about one out of two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning out of agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one out of seven exited poverty by migrating to the big cities, even though those moving to the city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross‐country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural–urban dichotomy and focusing more instead on how best to urbanize and develop its rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns.     

More than ‘Mutual Information’: Educational and sectoral gender segregation and their interaction on the Flemish labor market

We build on the Information Theory foundations of the Mutual Information Index of Segregation [Mora and Ruiz-Castillo, 2003; Frankel and Volij, 2011] to analyze two horizontal dimensions of gender segregation on the labor market. We provide a novel, three-way additive decomposition of their effects on overall segregation. Using survey data from 41,712 Flemish employees, we find that choice of study field has a larger effect on overall segregation than sectoral choice. Their mutual interaction is negative, indicating that sectoral segregation, although low, is still partly explained by educational choices.     

Environmental Determinants of Public Sector Innovation: A study of innovation awards in Canada

Abstract

In this article, we conduct an empirical study of administrative innovation in the Canadian public sector by examining applications to the Innovative Management Award of the Institute of Public Administration of Canada (IPAC). After a review of the literature on innovation in the public sector and of the history of this award, we come to the conclusion that the relationship between innovation and environment has been studied only sparingly, which explains the focus of our research and our hypotheses. Through an analysis of award applications over 21 years, and of award finalists and winners, we demonstrate that such environmental variables as strength of the economy, size of the civil service, deficits, unemployment rate, investment in R&D, and type of government have important consequences for administrative innovation in the public sector. We also suggest some implications of our findings for future research on this subject.     

Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks

We develop an easy-to-implement method for forecasting a stationary autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) process subject to structural breaks with unknown break dates. We show that an ARFIMA process subject to a mean shift and a change in the long memory parameter can be well approximated by an autoregressive (AR) model and suggest using an information criterion (AIC or Mallows’ _Cp$C_p$) to choose the order of the approximate AR model. Our method avoids the issue of estimation inaccuracy of the long memory parameter and the issue of spurious breaks in finite sample. Insights from our theoretical analysis are confirmed by Monte Carlo experiments, through which we also find that our method provides a substantial improvement over existing prediction methods. An empirical application to the realized volatility of three exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of our forecasting procedure. The empirical success of the HAR-RV model can be explained, from an econometric perspective, by our theoretical and simulation results.     

Comparing and explaining HR department effectiveness assessments: evidence from line managers and trade union representatives

We compare and explain effectiveness assessments of two HR stakeholders: line managers and trade union representatives. We examine whether they have the same preferences regarding the roles the HR department has to fulfil (Ulrich 1997). Next, we test which strong HRM system characteristics (Bowen and Ostroff 2004) are decisive in determining the perceived effectiveness of the HR department in the preferential roles. With these analyses we examine whether the HR roles and strong HRM system characteristics are equally important to different stakeholders. Results show that the perceived effectiveness of the HR department in its operational roles is decisive in trade union representatives' general HR effectiveness assessment. For line managers, process-oriented roles are crucial. Next, if the HR department scores high on strong HRM system characteristics, it is perceived as more effective in its HR roles. Yet, the importance of specific HRM system characteristics depends on the role and stakeholder.     

Variable preference relations: Existence of maximal elements

We consider variable preference relations, also called reference dependent preference relations, which are typical in the study of dynamic models in economic theories. We introduce a new concept of weak consistency, a generalization of acyclicity, as an immediate regret condition for variable preferences. The main result to establish is on an existence criterion for maximal elements of a space equipped with a weakly consistent variable preference relation. It is expressed via a preference completeness condition which is equivalent to existence of aspiration points. As applications, we show that a number of results known in the recent literature on maximum principles on a space with or without topological structure can be obtained from the unifying approach of this paper. Habit formation and state functions are also discussed in the framework of variable preference relations.     

Toward an assessment of perceived HRM system strength: scale development and validation

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a theoretically grounded instrument to measure perceived HRM system strength. Relying on the work of Bowen and Ostroff, we identify different constructs capturing measurable features of a strong HRM system. Next, we develop items to measure these constructs, and use two different samples to validate the instrument. The resulting instrument builds on 11 constructs, organized along 3 different hierarchical levels. It is useful for HR practitioners in evaluating their functioning and for researchers to further test and develop theoretical insights in the HRM–performance relationship.     

Institutional foundations of export diversification patterns in oil-producing countries

While it is well known that resource exporting countries have higher export concentration, it is lesser known that there is substantial variance in export concentration fortunes within resource-based countries. Using several estimation techniques and other sensitivity checks, this paper offers a new explanation for success and failure in export diversification patterns in oil countries, an explanation which has an institutional and political background. In measuring the number of years between the beginning of oil production and the attainment of political independence in oil developing countries, we found that the greater the number of years, the higher the degree of export diversification ceteris paribus. Our interpretation of this result is grounded in an analysis of political constraints to diversification in resource-based countries. Institutions, unfavorable to diversification, which arose from the pre-independence period, were blocked in their positive evolution by national political elites in the post-independence period. This result contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of institutions in resource-based countries.     

Implications of the Joint Provision of CSR Assurance and Financial Audit for Auditors' Assessment of Going-Concern Risk

We examine whether the joint provision of corporate social responsibility (CSR) assurance services and financial audit by the same audit firm influences auditors' assessment of going-concern risk. We predict that the provision of CSR assurance and financial audit by the same audit firm creates CSR-related knowledge spillovers from the CSR assurance team to the financial audit engagement team, which helps in the auditor's assessment of going-concern risk. Using more than 28,000 firm-year observations from 55 countries, we document that, relative to audit firms that provide only the financial audit, audit firms that provide both CSR assurance and financial audit for the same client (i) issue more frequent going-concern opinions and have lower Type II going-concern errors, (ii) have clients that book larger environmental and litigation provisions, (iii) report earnings that are more persistent and value-relevant and are less likely to book income-decreasing earnings restatements, and (iv) do not charge higher audit fees or total fees. Our results are important especially because of firms' increasing exposure to CSR risks and the growing number of countries that require assurance of CSR reports.