CIVIL WAR EXPOSURE AND VIOLENCE

In recent years scholars have begun to focus on the consequences of individuals' exposure to civil war, including its severe health and psychological consequences. Our innovation is to move beyond the survey methodology that is widespread in this literature to analyze the actual behavior of individuals with varying degrees of exposure to civil war in a common institutional setting. We exploit the presence of thousands of international soccer (football) players with different exposures to civil conflict in the European professional leagues, and find a strong relationship between the extent of civil conflict in a player's home country and his propensity to behave violently on the soccer field, as measured by yellow and red cards. This link is robust to region fixed effects, country characteristics (e.g. rule of law, per capita income), player characteristics (e.g. age, field position, quality), outliers, and team fixed effects. Reinforcing our claim that we isolate the effect of civil war exposure rather than simple rule breaking or something else entirely, there is no meaningful correlation between our measure of exposure to civil war and soccer performance measures not closely related to violent conduct. The result is also robust to controlling for civil wars before a player's birth, suggesting that it is not driven by factors from the distant historical past.     

CONSISTENCY-IN-AGGREGATION AND STUVEL INDICES

In the National Accounts framework a frequent use is made of value, price, and quantity indices. Three requirements appear to be of vital importance. (i) For each aggregate the price index multiplied by the quantity index must be equal to the value index. (ii) The indices must be consistent-in-aggregation (which means something more than that a single-step calculation yields the same outcome as a two-or-more-step calculation). (iii) The indices must satisfy the equality test (defined in this paper). In this paper it is shown that the only indices satisfying these three requirements are the generalized Stuvel (1957) indices. These indices satisfy the Eichhorn and Voeller (1983) axioms for price and quantity indices. However, if one also requires that the indices be linearly homogeneous in current period prices and quantities then the only admissible indices are those of Laspeyres and Paasche.     

Quality assurance in managed vision benefits

Quality assurance is an important responsibility of those who purchase managed vision care benefits. In conducting a quality assurance program, it is important to respect patient confidentiality and the practitioner's right to exercise professional discretion. An effective program will not only accomplish its main objective of attaining high-quality care, but it can also enhance member satisfaction and improve provider relations.     

Simultaneous versus sequential information processing

Subjects update prior information simultaneously versus sequentially. The mean prediction is remarkably close to the correct Bayesian estimate with simultaneous information, but differs significantly conditional on whether good news precedes bad news or vice versa.     

Assessing Preference Change on the US Supreme Court

The foundation upon which accounts of policy-motivated behaviorof Supreme Court justices are built consists of assumptionsabout the policy preferences of the justices. To date, mostscholars have assumed that the policy positions of Supreme Courtjustices remain consistent throughout the course of their careersand most measures of judicial ideology—such as Segal andCover scores—are time invariant. On its face, this assumptionis reasonable; Supreme Court justices serve with life tenureand are typically appointed after serving in other politicalor judicial roles. However, it is also possible that the worldviews,and thus the policy positions, of justices evolve through thecourse of their careers. In this article we use a Bayesian dynamicideal point model to investigate preference change on the USSupreme Court. The model allows for justices' ideal points tochange over time in a smooth fashion. We focus our attentionon the 16 justices who served for 10 or more terms and completedtheir service between the 1937 and 2003 terms. The results arestriking—14 of these 16 justices exhibit significant preferencechange. This has profound implications for the use of time-invariantpreference measures in applied work.     

How Monetary Policy can have Permanent Real Effects with Only Temporary Nominal Rigidity

A macroeconomic model is developed in which the psychological concept of loss aversion is incorporated into workers' preferences. The impact of monetary policy in the presence of loss aversion depends on the specification of the reference wage. The plausible specification that a worker's reference wage is the real wage she was paid in the previous period is considered in detail. Specifying the reference wage in this way, we show that an unanticipated change in monetary policy has a permanent, real effect when short term labour contracts are written in nominal wages.     

Product Differentiation and Public Education

We demonstrate that differentiation in public services can arise as a way of reducing competition among cities. Quality differentiation can be particularly relevant to the provision of education. If cities finance education through a property tax that generates "tax competition," we find that quality differentiation in education changes the amount of educational services provided. In the case of property-value maximization, this means a reduction in educational services in both the city with high quality and that with low quality. The reduction in educational services means that under reasonable conditions property values in both cities can increase.