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61.
CHRISTIAN HAEFKE MARTIN NATTER TARUN SONI HEINRICH OTRUBA 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》1997,6(1):1-10
Adaptive methods are used to forecast three main Austrian economic indicators. We use a weighted recursive model as well as a neural network approach both with and without adaptive characteristics and compare our results to the forecasts of two Austrian research institutes. It appears that even models which use very limited information can outperform the two Institutes’ forcasts of the unemployment rate. For the case of most series adaptivity represents a possibility of improving the forecasts. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
62.
Conditions are derived for signing the employment effects in a unionized economy of a legislated cut in hours when productivity depends on the number of hours worked each week. Aggregate data suggest that employment will generally increase after a small cut in hours for the UK but the employment effect is ambiguous for Australia. Disaggregated data for Australia suggest that the employment effect of a cut in hours is often positive However, any cut in hours imposed on a monopoly union, without a cut in pay, will unambiguously lead to a drop in employment 相似文献
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Credit Reporting, Relationship Banking, and Loan Repayment 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
How does information sharing between lenders affect borrowers repayment behavior? We show—in a laboratory credit market—that information sharing increases repayment rates, as borrowers anticipate that a good credit record improves their access to credit. This incentive effect of information sharing is substantial when repayment is not third‐party enforceable and lending is dominated by one‐shot transactions. If, however, repeat interaction between borrowers and lenders is feasible, the incentive effect of credit reporting is negligible, as bilateral banking relationships discipline borrowers. Information sharing nevertheless affects market outcome by weakening lenders' ability to extract rents from relationships. 相似文献
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This article demonstrates that researchers who treat data collected via complex sampling procedures as if they were collected via simple random sample (SRS) may draw improper inferences when estimating regression models. Using complex sample data from the 2004 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) two models—one ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and one logistic regression—were estimated using three methods: SRS with and without population weights, Taylor series linearization, and Fay's Balanced Repeated Replication (BRR). The results of the alternative models demonstrate that depending on the variables of interest, authors who fail to incorporate sample design information or fail to consider the effects of weighting may draw improper inferences from their regression models. Reasons why researchers continue to neglect complex sample‐based variance are proposed and discussed, and example SAS and Stata code is offered to encourage adoption by the consumer research community. 相似文献
68.
We use equity index options to quantify the distribution of consumption growth disasters. The challenge lies in connecting the risk‐neutral distribution of equity returns implied by options to the true distribution of consumption growth. First, we compare pricing kernels constructed from macro‐finance and option‐pricing models. Second, we compare option prices derived from a macro‐finance model to those we observe. Third, we compare the distribution of consumption growth derived from option prices using a macro‐finance model to estimates based on macroeconomic data. All three perspectives suggest that options imply smaller probabilities of extreme outcomes than have been estimated from macroeconomic data. 相似文献
69.
MARTIN RAVALLION 《Journal of Economic Policy Reform》2013,16(2):109-122
Standard policy advice at times of fiscal adjustment is to protect public spending on the poor. However, the political economy of fiscal adjustment could well indicate the opposite direction, to protect the non‐poor from adjustment. This point is illustrated by three case studies based on research on social programs in Argentina, Bangladesh, and India, focusing on how targeting performance varied with aggregate outlays. The results suggest a tendency for program spending on the non‐poor that is protected from budget cuts. 相似文献
70.
Although whistleblowers are often portrayed as courageous individuals deserving of respect, the act of whistleblowing can be viewed as a disloyal act which may bring much harm to the whistleblower's colleagues. We argue that although some whistleblowers have provided a great service to society, the world would be best served if the need for external whistleblowing were obviated by appropriate management practices . 相似文献