Measuring the predictable variation in stock and bond returns

Recent studies show that when a regression model is used toforecast stock and bond returns, the sample R² increases dramaticallywith the length of the return horizon. These studies argue,therefore, that long-horizon returns are highly predictable.This article presents evidence that suggests otherwise. Long-horizonregressions can easily yield large values of the sample R²,even if the populations R² is smaller or zero. Moreover, long-horizonregressions with a small or zero population R² can produce t-ratiosthat might be interpreted as evidence of strong predictability.In general, the analysis provides little support for the viewthat long-horizon returns are highly predictable.     

How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Export Decisions of Firms in Ghana?

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been identified to promote exports of host countries by augmenting domestic capital for exports, helping to transfer technology and new products for exports, facilitating access to new and large foreign markets, providing training for the local workforce, and upgrading technical and management skills. However, little is known on the role of FDI in the export behaviour of firms in developing countries. The main questions raised in this study are: how does FDI affect the export decisions of firms? How does FDI affect export performance of firms? This study examined the export‐decision and export performance within the Ghanaian manufacturing sector on a panel of plants from 1991 to 2002. Using a probit model, the results show that FDI has a positive effect on firms' decision to export. The random effect results also reveal a positive relationship between FDI and export performance. Clearly, the results of this study indicate that FDI is very relevant in influencing the export decisions and export performance of Ghanaian firms. The findings have significant implications for policy in terms of promoting initiatives to encourage more FDI inflows in the country.     

HIGH-INVOLVEMENT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES, TRADE UNION REPRESENTATION AND WORKPLACE PERFORMANCE IN BRITAIN

Debates about Britain's productivity performance have often drawn attention to the roles played by working practices and employment relations. In the 1980s and 1990s, trade unions were a prime focus; more recently, attention has turned to high‐involvement management (HIM) practices (also referred to as ‘high‐performance work systems’). We combine the two to investigate the relationships between work organisation, trade union representation and workplace performance. We find that HIM has a positive impact on labour productivity. However, this effect is restricted to unionised workplaces, and seems more readily explained by concessionary wage bargaining than ‘mutual gains’, given the absence of any association with financial performance. These findings raise questions about the universal applicability of HIM as a route to improved workplace performance.     

Toward a theory of high performance

What does it mean to be a high-performance company? The process of measuring relative performance across industries and eras, declaring top performers, and finding the common drivers of their success is such a difficult one that it might seem a fool's errand to attempt. In fact, no one did for the first thousand or so years of business history. The question didn't even occur to many scholars until Tom Peters and Bob Waterman released In Search of Excellence in 1982. Twenty-three years later, we've witnessed several more attempts--and, just maybe, we're getting closer to answers. In this reported piece, HBR senior editor Julia Kirby explores why it's so difficult to study high performance and how various research efforts--including those from John Kotter and Jim Heskett; Jim Collins and Jerry Porras; Bill Joyce, Nitin Nohria, and Bruce Roberson; and several others outlined in a summary chart-have attacked the problem. The challenge starts with deciding which companies to study closely. Are the stars the ones with the highest market caps, the ones with the greatest sales growth, or simply the ones that remain standing at the end of the game? (And when's the end of the game?) Each major study differs in how it defines success, which companies it therefore declares to be worthy of emulation, and the patterns of activity and attitude it finds in common among them. Yet, Kirby concludes, as each study's method incrementally solves problems others have faced, we are progressing toward a consensus theory of high performance.     

The product market opportunity loss of mandated disclosure

In the interests of protecting decision makers in the financial markets, the Securities and Exchange Commission requires publicly traded companies to publicly disclose certain accounting information. Such disclosure requirements however create a potential opportunity loss. They may destroy firms’ opportunities for implementing an alternative information acquisition and exchange regime – one that would optimize the firms’ product market profits. Nevertheless, we show that despite the previous imposition of an opportunity loss, firms may still favor future increased disclosure requirements. Finally, when information cost declines, although firms’ welfare may decrease, their desire for increased disclosure requirements always strengthens.     

粮仓里的危机——世界粮食生产面临的巨大威胁

近年来,大面积种植单一作物及化肥农药的大量使用,导致农田生态环境日益脆弱,并由此引发一系列问题,而生物多样性的应用无疑是解决这一系列问题的途径之一。由国际著名植物病理学家、云南农业大学的朱有勇校长提出的利用水稻遗传多样性控制稻瘟病的理论与技术提供了植物病虫害生态防治的新途径和新技术,其研究成果发表在Nature、Bioscience、Phy-topathology等世界顶级刊物上,并已获多项国际、国内大奖。美国的《新闻周刊》(Newsweek)曾以CrisisintheCupboard:BigThreatstotheWorld’Crops为题发表了专题评论,呼吁世界各国重视农业生物多样性的应用。为了让更多的读者了解利用生物多样性控制病虫害的意义及其重要性,笔者翻译了美国《新闻周刊》的专题评论,希望大家都来关心、保护和利用生物多样性。     

Marketing as a Determinant of Long-Run Competitive Success in Medium-Sized U.K. Manufacturing Firms

Over the last decade or so, many studies have highlighted the important role that marketing plays in contributing to a firm's competitive success. Thus, this article aims to examine the contribution of marketing to the competitive success of forty two British medium-sized manufacturing firms at two time points, 1987/88 and 1997/98, in order to determine any success factors that are durable over time. The investigation is based on mail surveys and in-depth interviews undertaken within the same set of firms at both dates. The findings identify eight specific marketing practices that might well be described as key determinants of success. However, they also draw into question several of the traditional tenets of successful marketing.     

Analysis of a dust deflagration

This paper outlines the events leading to a successfully vented deflagration in a storage bin for a granular material. The hazard of particle size classification during conveying and loading operations is also illustrated.